With Russia’s future uncertain, Turkey and the West need each other
Prigozhin’s coup was a serious warning sign that should prompt Turkey to cool ties with Russia and rebuild its relationship with the West. Yet today, Turkey and the West look at each other in terms of problems not solutions. While the political risks of reengagement are high for both sides, the potential rewards are well worth the effort needed to overcome them.
If the war in Gaza isn’t horrific enough, the world also has to worry about its possible expansion. The one theater that could prove to be the most lethal and devastating to the entire region is Lebanon-Israel. There, Israel would have to deal with Hezbollah, a foe with capabilities far more significant than Hamas’s, and which many view as the world’s most powerful non-state militant actor.
So, will Hezbollah join the fight and turn this into a regional war to aid its Palestinian partner?
As Israel-Hamas war begins, it’s not too late to shape this historic inflection point
Hamas’ murderous raid on Oct. 7, resulting in the deaths of more than 1,300 Israelis, mostly civilians, may well turn out to be a consequential inflection point, having unleashed political and popular forces that could lead in a positive or, just as likely, extremely negative direction.
The new war between Israel and Hamas has amply illustrated that what Middle Eastern and American officials were claiming was the most peaceful in decades was anything but.
It was an easy mistake to make: across the region, negotiations were breaking out among hardened foes, countries were scaling back or ending interventions, and everyone seemed to be breathing a collective sigh of relief.
As is usual in the Middle East, the outbreak of peace is often just a harbinger of war.
Turkish escalation in northeastern Syria amid changes in military strategy
After several quiet months on the Turkish-Syrian border, tensions have escalated in recent days. Turkish forces have intensified their attacks against the SDF in northeastern Syria and targeted PKK hideouts along the Turkish-Iraqi border. This escalation is unfolding against the backdrop of the suicide blast in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, on Oct. 1 that targeted the Interior Ministry.
In the latest installment of the Defense Rapid Reaction series, experts from MEI’s Defense & Security Program provide their views on the Oct. 7 Hamas surprise attack on Israel and what it might mean for Israelis and Palestinians, the wider region, and U.S. policy.
Nagorno Karabakh offers the US a chance to make new friends and weaken old enemies
The latest war over Nagorno Karabakh lasted a single day, ending on Sept. 20. It is the third war over the region disputed between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the last three and a half decades.
But this time, it seems there was really only one party to the conflict. Armenia stayed out, leaving it to the Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh to surrender.
A hundred thousand people have fled to Armenia, roughly 80 percent of the Karabakh population. What’s more, Armenia’s most powerful allies, Iran and Russia, appear to be distracted and marginally engaged.
NATO membership for Ukraine: The only lasting deterrence against future Russian aggression
As important as it is for Ukraine to work with individual partners and receive their long-term support, the key security guarantor for Ukraine can only be NATO and its Article V umbrella. No arrangement other than full NATO membership will entirely remove the threat of a Russian re-invasion, at least so long as Putin remains in power.
Key takeaways from Mohammed bin Salman’s Fox interview
Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s interview on Wednesday night with Bret Baier of Fox News didn’t break news or produce controversy. But that wasn’t the point of his appearance on one of America’s top networks.
From normalization to non-aggression: The next step in Iran-Saudi ties
The groundbreaking March 2023 normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran could potentially reshape the political landscape of the Middle East. It has already paved the way for de-securitization and the resumption of diplomatic relations. However, critical security issues remain unresolved, casting doubt on the long-term sustainability of the process. Capitalizing on this rare opportunity, Riyadh and Tehran should move forward to finalize a comprehensive non-aggression pact as the foundation for their future security relations.
The costs and benefits of Saudi-Israeli normalisation
For all the hype about the potential normalisation of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, it remains vastly unclear whether the United States — the indispensable enabler and guarantor of such a deal — is willing or able to accept the kingdom’s conditions to reach an agreement.
In return for its cooperation, Saudi Arabia wants from Washington a formal defence pact, assistance in building a civilian nuclear programme, and expedited access to high-end US weapons, including F-35 fifth-generation fighter aircraft.
Understanding Moldova’s ethnic dynamics: Minority rights, external influence, and pathways to unity
Moldova is a country with a rich tapestry of multiple ethnic identities and linguistic traditions, but one where policymakers have long grappled with the complexities of preserving minority rights, fostering national unity, and addressing regional autonomy through engagement with the Gagauz minority.
