Iran amid conflicting geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East
As two contradictory trends of de-escalation in the Persian Gulf and a new round of war between Palestinians and Israelis unfold at the same time, Iran is trying to play its best cards and navigate its position. Iran views the region’s geopolitical and security conflicts as a chance to uphold its position and leverage it to advance its defined national interests.
Soleimani birthed Iran’s Axis of Resistance, Ghaani coordinated it
Iranian strategy in the Middle East has long centered on nurturing regional proxies and partners — a so-called “Axis of Resistance” — to mount an existential threat to Israel by encircling it in a ring of fire. The bloody war between Israel and Hamas sparked by the latter’s Oct. 7 massacre is the first large-scale implementation of this Axis of Resistance doctrine. Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani’s lasting contribution will be the network’s entry into the battlefield in a comprehensive and coordinated manner.
Pakistan’s military and foreign policy under Gen. Asim Munir
Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa orchestrated a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s traditional geostrategic focus, transitioning from geopolitics to geoeconomics. His successor, Gen. Asim Munir, in command of Pakistan’s military for the past year, now faces the challenging task of turning Gen. Bajwa’s unrealized vision into a reality, a goal that requires cultivating positive interdependence and multi-alignment with a diverse range of partners, while also ensuring domestic stability.
Managing US Relations with Pakistan in Uncertain Times: Opportunities and Obstacles
With the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, America’s bilateral relationship with Pakistan may have come to hold less priority. If it was thought, however, that the U.S. could afford to largely turn its back on Pakistan and its region, it has instead become increasingly evident that American strategic interests and other concerns demand continued attention and involvement. It is imperative that American policymakers take a longer view when it comes to dealing with Pakistan, especially at a time when great power competition is intensifying across South Asia. It is in the interest of both the U.S. and Pakistan to develop a mutually beneficial and sustainable relationship.
An Israeli-Palestinian peace process would present Iran with a difficult choice
The Israel-Hamas war provides Tehran with a meaningful opportunity to fundamentally shift its position toward Israel. Should a peace process follow this latest war, Iran will have a hard choice to make – double-down on upholding its Axis of Resistance against Israel, or look for ways to work with the majority in the region that seek a feasible political settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Essential questions about the Russia-Hamas link: The evidence and its implications
As the war in Gaza continues to unfold, essential questions about Russian and Iranian support for Hamas remain. They include whether Russia played any role in providing support to Hamas ahead of its Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Evidence available from foreign-language publications in Russian, Persian, Arabic, and Hebrew, as well as those in English, provides provocative leads, which, if accurate, have serious potential implications.
Israel’s Response to Iran in Syria: Choosing Between Escalation and Accommodation
The following quantitative analysis explores the core of Israel’s strategic airstrikes in Syria between 2013 and August 2023, a critical aspect of its defense policy during this time, aimed at mitigating Iranian influence in the region and protecting its national borders.
Despite the Houthis’ geographical distance from Israel and perceived limited capabilities, the threat they represent is all too real and if underestimated, they have the potential to derail diplomatic efforts and destabilize the region, with potentially catastrophic consequences.
On this week’s episode, MEI’s Editor in Chief Alistair Taylor talks to Iran Program Director Alex Vatanka about Iran and the Israel-Hamas war. As fighting rages in Gaza and the prospects for regional escalation continue to mount, Iran will remain a critical actor to watch. It is not only Israel’s main regional foe but also the leading provider of military aid and training for Hamas. Given the centrality of Iran in this latest Middle Eastern war, understanding how Tehran views the conflict and its endgame will be critical.
Iranian-backed militia attacks on coalition forces threaten to ignite eastern Syria
Over the last three weeks, there has been a notable escalation in attacks targeting international coalition bases in northeastern Syria orchestrated by Iranian-backed militias operating in Iraq and Syria. Concurrently, there have been reports indicating the establishment of operational centers aimed at coordinating these strikes. These developments appear to be part of an effort to exploit the widespread popular discontent with the United States and Israel, with the strategic aim of expanding and consolidating Iranian influence in Syria.
Afghan refugees as victims of Pakistan and Afghanistan’s clashing security interests
For decades Pakistan has threatened to deport its undocumented Afghan refugees, but Islamabad has never undertaken a campaign to oust Afghans on anything like the scale now underway. Whether voluntarily or through force, Pakistan’s interim administration, backed by the senior military leadership, seems determined to rapidly uproot 1.7 million of the estimated 3.5 million Afghans believed to be in the country. The government’s decision comes at a terrible time given the conditions in Afghanistan and the feared humanitarian impact.
