Research & Commentary Results

On November 5, the Trump administration re-imposed the full scope of U.S. sanctions on Iran, nearly six months after it unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear accord, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The stringent sanctions target Iran’s energy, shipping and banking sectors and make it difficult, if not impossible, for foreign companies to continue to do business with the Islamic Republic. The Treasury Department reinstated all sanctions removed under the JCPOA, and blacklisted 300 new entities and individuals, in what the Treasury called it the “largest ever single-day action targeting the Iranian regime.”

There is a certain established image of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Indonesia’s largest Islamic organization, as representing “moderate” Islam. However, recent events in local and national Indonesian politics have severely undermined this image. In fact, NU conservatives are gaining popularity both through traditional propagation activities (dakwah) and via online media. This article explores the trajectories of NU’s anti-pluralist dissidents.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including the ongoing conflict in Yemen, the potential impact of the midterm elections on US Middle East policy, U.S.-Turkey rapprochement, escalating tensions in northern Syria, the upcoming Palermo conference on Libya, and the potential for political fallout in Pakistan and peace talks in Afghanistan.

Bahrain is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on Nov. 24, but the vote is unlikely to resolve the kingdom’s lingering political crisis.

In a recent video circulating on Iraqi social media, a man appears to be showing off rows of militiamen in the background as they conduct combat drills. He begins by giving an overhead view of several fighters of the Imam Ali Brigade, an Iranian-supported militia group within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), marching in formation as they receive training. Before concluding the clip, he declares “Ila al-Yaman Insha’llah” (to Yemen, God willing).

Although the Trump administration has said it will issue temporary waivers to some major importers of Iranian oil, further declines in Iran’s exports are likely after sanctions come into effect on Nov. 4.

MEI’s Alex Vatanka and Jean-Francois Seznec join host Paul Salem to discuss the impact of incoming U.S. sanctions on Iranian energy exports on Iran’s economy, the Gulf, and energy markets in general.

King Abdullah’s decision to cancel a 25 year land lease to Israel is likely to exacerbate long-simmering tensions between the two nations and challenge the cold peace that has been in place since 1994.

The GCC aid package for Bahrain illustrates how massive capital flows underlie the contentious politics and strategic alliances within the Gulf and broader Middle East.

The recent research on Salafism has focused almost entirely on the Middle East, while neglecting other world regions, such as Asia. However, the region of former British India, and, especially, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the People’s Republic of Bangladesh that emerged from the partition of India in 1947 and 1971, respectively, provide highly interesting insights into the trajectories that the development of political Salafism can take. In this region, the Ahle Hadith school of thought, the South Asian variant of Salafism, has a tradition of political activism that predates the emergence of political Salafism in the Middle East.

The UN has undertaken a series of steps to push Libya beyond the uneasy stability imposed by the militias. Together with Plan B, an economic-military-political package could provide the means to do so.

The Tiger Forces is a Syrian Air Intelligence-affiliated militia fighting for the Syrian government and backed by Russia. While often described as the Syrian government’s elite fighting force, this research portrays a starkly different picture. The Tiger Forces are the largest single fighting force on the Syrian battlefield, with approximately 24 groups comprised of some 4,000 offensive infantry units as well as a dedicated artillery regiment and armor unit of unknown size. Beyond these fighters are thousands of additional so-called flex units, affiliated militiamen who remain largely garrisoned in their hometowns along the north Hama and Homs borders until called on to join offensives as needed.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Charles Lister provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iran’s decision to sell its oil in the private sector, the prime minister of Pakistan’s search for foreign aid, and the Syrian summit in Istanbul.

This article discusses the fundamental shortcomings of US and UK-promoted police reform in Lebanon. First, it presents two separate community policing projects implemented in Lebanon supported by the United States and Britain. Then, drawing on recent experiences with community policing in the United States, it argues how, why and to what extent these projects in Lebanon are not contributing to human security, but rather increasing the insecurity of local communities.

Erdogan is likely to leave behind a highly politicized officer corps rather than a meritocratic one.