The complex web of interdependence and threat balancing that prevents war between Iran and Azerbaijan
Relations between Tehran and Baku have long had their ups and downs, but a recent series of events in late March have once again brought tensions to a boil. However, despite the mutual threat perceptions, the recurring tensions between the two countries have not gotten out of control and led to military conflict. In fact, over the past three decades, relations between Tehran and Baku have consistently followed a cycle of escalating and de-escalating tensions.
More than a year on from the beginning of the Ukraine war in February 2022, there is no more business as usual for Russia-Iran relations. While bilateral ties are still characterized by an intense focus on security and defense, the two sides are opening multiple new areas of cooperation as well. But what has motivated Moscow and Tehran to invest in strengthening their bilateral relations given all the potential risks and costs? Could conflicts of interest and competition put a crack in this burgeoning relationship? And what can the West do about it?
Assessing US Assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces
In January 2023, the United States began to reroute $72 million of assistance to Lebanon to support the salaries of Lebanese soldiers and police officers, most of whom could barely make ends meet due to the disastrous economic situation in the country. It took Washington more than two years to make that decision, partly because US laws regarding this type of aid were slightly unclear. But more importantly, the voices inside and outside the US government who argued against further support to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), let alone direct cash assistance, succeeded in delaying the process. This was yet another example of how, despite continued US commitment to the LAF through successive administrations, the US military assistance program remains vulnerable to US domestic politics.https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-government-lebanon-bu…
Unexpected beneficiary: The implications of the China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal for Pakistan
The implications of the apparent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran are likely to have significant consequences for vital neighboring regions like South Asia and other populous Muslim countries, including, notably, Pakistan.
Why the Iranian public remains silent in the face of Israeli attacks
The silence from Iran is deafening. Judging by social media reactions and media reports from Iran, few, if any, members of the Iranian public seem to care that, since 2011, the Israeli air force has attacked Iranian and Iranian-affiliated positions in Syria on more than a thousand occasions, reportedly killing a number of Iranian members of the IRGC.
Arab women break boundaries and stereotypes in Middle Eastern militaries
As Women’s History Month in the U.S. draws to a close, women in the armed forces of several Middle Eastern countries continue to achieve historic milestones, with many now serving as pilots, engineers, peacekeepers, and in special forces units. The role of women is steadily increasing as the result of new initiatives, policies, and gradually changing mindsets in the Middle East.
Two weeks ago, on March 10, Iran said it would restore diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia after a seven-year rupture as part of a deal brokered by China. The agreement, reached in Beijing, is the result of almost a year and a half of mostly quiet talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, facilitated by a host of countries including China, Iraq, Oman, Russia, and the United States.
Paris failed. Washington must lead in breaking the mafia-militia’s chokehold on Lebanon
In response to Lebanon’s seemingly imminent transition into a failed state, this article introduces a new framework to explain the country’s protracted crisis. In turn, we unpack what the past four years of international responses to Lebanon got wrong and make the case for a new assertive approach for Washington to take — one that empowers local stakeholders working to recapture the state and reform the country’s political economy.
MEI’s US-Lebanon Fellow Fadi Nicholas Nassar speaks to Beirut-based international finance professional Mike Azar (@AzarsTweets) on Lebanon’s financial crisis. What is the state of Lebanon’s banking system, and how did it become so dysfunctional? What does Azar recommend to get Lebanon’s economy back on track, and can the Lira be saved?
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy is converting two merchant container ships into vessels capable of carrying and launching combat drones against maritime or coastal targets. For now, Iran’s drone carriers are unlikely to pose a clear and present danger to the U.S., but they possess symbolic significance as a potential tool to defy American initiatives in the Middle East and respond to Israel’s attacks against Iran.
The race to replace Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s most palatable interlocutor with the West
Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani has served for 10 years as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Iran’s top policymaking body in both domestic and foreign policy matters. A number of recent developments have aroused speculation that he could soon vacate his seat. Such a change would be an important signpost of how the Iranian establishment is posturing itself against the backdrop of continued revolutionary sentiment among significant segments of the population.
Russia's Influence in MENA After a Year of War in Ukraine
MEI Managing Editor Matthew Czekaj speaks with scholars Iulia-Sabina Joja, Alex Vatanka, Yörük Işık, Charles Lister, and Roger Kangas on Russia’s current standing in the Middle East a year since re-invading Ukraine.
How has Russian aggression in Ukraine redrawn Moscow’s relationships in the MENA region? And as the Middle East increasingly becomes a key area of global great power competition, is Russia still a meaningful player there, politically, economically, militarily, and diplomatically?
