Iran and the GCC connectivity agenda: Implication for Washington’s Iran policy
The prevailing political spirit in the Gulf region is presently one of de-escalation. In the case of the UAE and Iran, a number of existing connections could help hasten the process of de-escalation and enable it to happen faster than anywhere else in the region.The outcome should be of interest not only to the UAE and Iran but also to the U.S. given the latter’s long-standing efforts to shape Iranian policies.
Disease, destruction, flooded fields, and hunger: The far-reaching consequence of the Kakhovka dam collapse in Ukraine
Last week’s collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River in Ukraine is one of the largest environmental disaster the Black Sea region and Europe has faced in decades. Its far-reaching environmental, economic, and humanitarian consequences will affect not just Ukraine and the Black Sea region, but also the Middle East and Africa.
Azerbaijan's Hoseyniyun: The prospects and challenges of a Caucasus Hezbollah
The “Axis of Resistance,” a network of non-state actors aligned with Iran, has emerged as a significant force in the Middle East in the last two decades. Despite the attention given to the more well-known members of the Axis of Resistance, the Azerbaijani group Hoseyniyun, which also operates within the network, remains relatively unknown.
Israel’s ties with pre-revolutionary Iran provided a road map for the Abraham Accords
In the 1950s-1970s, the bilateral relationship between Israel and pre-revolutionary Iran provided a road map for the process leading to a normalization in ties between the Jewish state and Arab countries in the 2020s.
The recent removal of IRGC commander Ali Shamkhani from his role as the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s top foreign and security policy body, the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), has triggered assessments about the potential implications for Tehran’s external calculus. But the changes at the SNSC should not be viewed in isolation. Rather, they must be understood and assessed in the context of a much deeper transformational project that began in 2019, personally spearheaded by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Houthi partnership model: Is there a strategy behind the tactics?
With the international community viewing the latest “de-escalation roadmap” as paving the way for yet another transitional power-sharing agreement in an effort to “end” Yemen’s protracted conflict, it is useful to review how the Houthis have navigated past partnerships to understand how things may play out in the future.
Iran’s security chief Shamkhani did his job but had to go
Late last month, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei opted to replace the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali Shamkhani. The latter’s removal after 10 years spent in this key role has generated much speculation, misinformation, and outright disinformation.
Diagnosing Iran’s emerging pivot toward Russia and China
Since Raisi’s election to the presidency, Iran is pursuing a two-tiered foreign policy: a vigorous and determined shift toward Russia and China on the one hand, while, on the other hand, making incremental concessions on its nuclear program to give the impression that another deal can be struck to replace the JCPOA. The former approach is being implemented with almost zero fanfare and the latter with extensive publicity.
Putting Diplomacy First in the Middle East: Creating Incentives for De-Escalation
The Middle East is undergoing a historic transformation with unprecedented opportunities to build new relationships, de-escalate tensions, and foster conditions for stronger integration. At the same time, the region remains on edge because of ongoing tensions in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and other conflict zones, a civil war that broke out recently in Sudan, along with the overarching challenges presented by fraught relations between Iran, Israel, and several Arab Gulf countries — with the longer-term implications of the still-fragile Iranian-Saudi rapprochement yet to be fully assessed.
War as a catalyst for greater Black Sea-Gulf interconnectivity
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has destabilized and distressed the entire Black Sea neighborhood. Yet despite the war, or perhaps because of it, strategically important foreign direct investments into Black Sea littoral countries, including from the Gulf, have endured or even grown.
In an era of Middle East détente, how should the US and Israel respond?
Both Washington and Jerusalem welcome any reduction in regional tensions and prospects for a more stable, secure, and prosperous environment. However, there is a risk for U.S. and Israeli policy priorities, such as that regional de-escalation will reduce pressure on Tehran to negotiate on issues of concern, especially its nuclear weapons program.
The technical is geopolitical: Expanding US-UAE relations through AI
With AI development disproportionate attention is given to the world’s technological heavyweights, the U.S. and China, as they seek an innovative edge in their great power competition. But Gulf states like the UAE are also moving rapidly to invest in and adopt AI, with significant implications for bilateral relations. The momentum in both the U.S. and the UAE can be leveraged by anchoring further ideas for political, diplomatic, and military cooperation in the technical evolution of AI.
