Research & Commentary Results

The Black Sea region is currently managing military pressure from Russia, the economic influence of China, and soft power efforts of the West, making it a stage for power competition. With COVID-19 exacerbating Ukraine’s political weaknesses and economic vulnerabilities, Russia and China are increasingly adopting a united front in the Black Sea. Such geopolitical changes in power distribution require more active presence and involvement of the U.S. in the Black Sea.

The complexities, converging interests, and persistent tensions marking Iranian-Russian relationships are evident in their policies toward the Caspian Sea region. Iran and Russia are the two largest countries that border the sea, the world’s largest inland body of water. The Caspian region therefore provides many opportunities for diplomatic, economic, and military engagement between Iran and Russia. Some issues of mutual importance relating to the Caspian include the Nagorno-Karabakh War, the Afghanistan and Iraq conflicts, NATO partnerships in the Caucasus region, and the construction of trans-Caspian pipelines.

The USCGC Hamilton recently completed a visit around the Black Sea. This visit was notable for a couple of reasons. First, this was the first time the United States Coast Guard has operated in the Black Sea since 2008 when Russia invaded Georgia. Second, this U.S. deployment to the Black Sea came on the heels of a sizable Russian military buildup in the region.

The recent visit of Secretary Anthony Blinken and Under Secretary Victoria Nuland to Kiev demonstrated the urgency of Ukrainian security and Russian aggression. The visit, however, occurred on shaky grounds, with three main obstacles preventing Ukraine from making significant progress in its partnership with the U.S. First, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s limited progress on democratic reforms. Second, Western Europe’s lukewarm support for Ukraine and against Russian aggression. And third, Russia’s diversionary policy.

Although many policymakers and commentators in the West tend to see Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin as often working together, history shows us that the natural state of affairs between Russia and Turkey is one of competition, confrontation, and even conflict.
Recent geopolitical events remind us of this. However, there is another area to keep an eye on that serves as a historical and cultural fault line of Turkish and Russian geopolitical rivalry: the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia located in southern Moldova.

A spotlight has been cast over the Black Sea region for the past two decades. Located at the geopolitical junction of Western Europe, Russia, and the Middle East, the Black Sea littoral states have partnered with Western powers on global counterinsurgency and anti-terrorism efforts. Simultaneously, the Black Sea region continues to face insecurities triggered by enduring great power competition. The importance of stability in the Black Sea region has long been recognized by the West.

There are three clear steps the Biden administration must take if it hopes to de-escalate the crisis with Russia in Eastern Europe without being drawn into conflict. First, recognize that the Normandy Format has failed. Second, take the lead on peace negotiations with Russia. And third, shape a strategy for the Black Sea region.

Up until late on Tuesday, April 13, Russia seemed poised to invade Ukraine. An eleventh hour phone call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin – and a non-specific agreement between the two to hold a bilateral summit – seems to have halted Moscow’s military for now. But an expanding presence of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine in the Eastern Donbas region and Crimea continues. Concurrently, the Black Sea is turning into a Russian lake due to a buildup of Russian naval power. This has more than one observer asking just how soon a full-scale invasion of Ukraine could become reality – and what follows next from such a conflict.

As a NATO and EU member, Bulgaria has consistently been a target of the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare. Moscow is pursuing a calculated and well-planned policy aimed at influencing domestic politics in Bulgaria, with a view of preventing the country from becoming a robust NATO regional security provider. This is especially important for the build-up of the Alliance’s presence in the Black Sea.

New strategic alliances are being forged across the Black Sea in an attempt to counterbalance Russian influence in the region. The Georgia-Ukraine strategic partnership is complex and multifaceted. Despite diplomatic obstacles and how relatively new it is, the relationship is already making a difference to Black Sea security. On trade, security, or Euro-Atlantic integration, Georgia and Ukraine have realized they are louder when they speak with one voice. However, Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s border and in the Black Sea demonstrates that regional peace cannot be achieved without the support of the United States. Greater support is needed as Ukraine and Georgia continue to fight Russian hybrid warfare across the spectrum.

The aim of COP21 in Paris was to establish global consensus and a binding agreement for climate change mitigation. And it did so, setting a goal to limit global warming to “well below 2 degrees Celsius” compared to preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to stay even within the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold.

The foreign policy priorities of President Joe Biden suggest greater commitment to NATO Allies and decisive steps to counter Russian subversion in Europe.

Black Sea Connectivity in the South Caucasus is the latest report from MEI’s Frontier Europe Initiative. Dr. Mamuka Tsereteli, explores the potential for greater trade connectivity between Europe and wider Central Asia via the Black Sea and the South Caucasus.

While the security relationship between Russia and Turkey has seen ups and downs throughout the years, energy ties have remained stable. But Turkey has made strides toward reducing its dependence. Changes in global energy markets have tipped the power away from producers toward consumers like Turkey, which have greater room for maneuver. Turkish interests remain largely aligned with those of the West, even if Ankara sees itself as an independent player which has links to both Russia and the EU and the US.

Today, there are five conflicts that share similar features in the Black Sea. That is, they are protracted, separatist Russia-supported frozen and active conflicts in the former Soviet space. Deeply rooted in the history of Soviet territorial reorganization and ethnic mixing, conflicts in Transnistria (Moldova), Crimea and Donbas (Ukraine), and Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Georgia) are the result of violations to state borders that were integrated into the Soviet system.