Rethinking Democracy Ep. 4: China's Growing Presence in the Middle East with F. Gregory Gause and Jon Alterman
China has made significant inroads in the Middle East through diplomacy, trade, investment, and infrastructure projects. Beijing advertises the benefits of its authoritarian development model and presents itself as a responsible alternative to the United States. What does this mean for MENA autocracies? Gregory Gause and Jon Alterman join Gonul Tol to discuss China’s growing presence in the Middle East.
رد فعل سريع للدفاع: إسرائيل توسع أهدافها الحربية لتحييد حزب الله
In the latest installment of the Defense Rapid Reaction series, experts from MEI’s Defense & Security Program provide their views on the likely evolution of the Israeli-Hezbollah war, the potential for the conflict to draw in outside actors, as well as the impact of the war on global terrorist recruitment and appeal for extremist activities.
Hezbollah and Iran’s calculus as the conflict with Israel heats up
The deadly, back-to-back pager/two-way radio attacks against Hezbollah, which killed dozens and wounded thousands of its operatives, undoubtedly signaled a new phase in the intense cross-border exchanges between the group and Israel.
In a high-risk move, Israel ramps up escalation against Hezbollah
Over the past few days, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has entered a precarious new phase, with Israel carrying out both unconventional attacks and heavy airstrikes against the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, while Hezbollah has responded with an increase in retaliatory fire.
Navigating the shadows: Afghanistan’s terrorism landscape three years after the US withdrawal and its international implications
Three years since the US and allied withdrawal from Afghanistan, the facts on the ground challenge some more optimistic depictions of the Taliban’s counterterrorism cooperation with the US, al-Qaeda’s reemergence, or the capacity of ISKP to direct external attacks that could threaten American interests.
المرشحون المستبعدون والمعارضة المهمشة قبل الانتخابات الرئاسية التونسية
قبل أن يدلي الناخبون التونسيون بأصواتهم في الانتخابات الرئاسية في 6 أكتوبر/تشرين الأول، كانت المؤسسات الحكومية قد أدلت برأيها بالفعل. فقد قامت أجهزة الأمن والسلطات القضائية والهيئة العليا المستقلة للانتخابات (ISIE) إما بعرقلة أو منع أكثر من عشرة مرشحين محتملين من الترشح. ومن بين المرشحين الثلاثة المؤهلين الذين وافقت عليهم ISIE رسمياً، لم يبق خارج السجن سوى الرئيس قيس سعيد وزهير مغزاوي، أحد مؤيدي سعيد السابقين. تم اعتقال المرشح عياشي زامل في 6 سبتمبر. حاول العديد من المرشحين المحتملين الآخرين الترشح من السجن أو تم سجنهم بتهمة انتهاك تقني لقوانين الانتخابات. من خلال تقييد قائمة المرشحين المحتملين فعليًا إلى اثنين، تبنّت مؤسسات الدولة دورها الأبوي والتحديثي التاريخي تجاه مواطنين لا يثقون بها.
As the U.S. leaves Iraq, it can’t leave the door open for ISIS
After more than six months of talks, the United States and Iraq look set to announce a significant agreement stipulating that the U.S.-led anti-Islamic State coalition will withdraw entirely from the country over the next two years.
Shiraz Maher – Co-Director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR) – and Charles Lister – Director of MEI’s Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism Programs – speak to MEI Editor in Chief Alistair Taylor about ISIS and the detainee dilemma. What is the international community to do with the tens of thousands of foreign ISIS detainees and their families, including children, held in makeshift facilities in northeastern Syria under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces?
التغيير والاستمرارية في سياسة الاتحاد الأوروبي الخارجية في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا: ما يمكن توقعه من الدورة السياسية الجديدة في بروكسل
في أروقة السلطة في بروكسل، من الشائع سماع أن منصب الممثل الأعلى للاتحاد الأوروبي للشؤون الخارجية والسياسة الأمنية هو مهمة مستحيلة. وقد يصبح الأمر أكثر صعوبة بالنسبة لرئيسة الوزراء الإستونية المنتهية ولايتها كاجا كالاس، التي من المقرر أن تخلف الإسباني جوزيب بوريل كرئيسة للسياسة الخارجية للاتحاد الأوروبي في الأسابيع المقبلة.
De-Russification: Understanding the trajectory and reversibility of Armenia’s Western pivot
The question of whether Armenia’s recent shift away from reliance on Russia is reversible is central to understanding its democratization trajectory. In recent years, Armenia’s dependency on Russia for security and economic stability has been severely tested, particularly during the 2020 Second Karabakh War and subsequent Azerbaijani incursions on sovereign Armenian territory, where Russia’s lack of support led to widespread disillusionment. This discontent has spurred Armenia to diversify its security, economic, and diplomatic ties, with a notable strengthening of relations with the United States. However, the sustainability of this shift remains uncertain, as it hinges on various societal factors and internal dynamics.
Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks: The status quo and an emerging diplomatic breakthrough
Azerbaijan’s takeover of Karabakh in September 2023, while a disruptive event, has opened the window for renewed dialogue to peacefully resolve the longstanding tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. While the ongoing negotiations are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive peace deal in the near term, they could alter the strategic calculus of key actors in the region. The most likely and consequential outcome of the talks will be a peace framework agreement that could rebalance the regional status quo, potentially leading to a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan’s green shift: Energy transition, COP29 commitments, and US collaboration
Azerbaijan seeks to establish itself as a major actor in the global energy transition space as it prepares to host the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, on November 11-22. COP29 offers many opportunities to improve US-Azerbaijani energy cooperation, including by coordinating the United States’ clean energy technology goals with Azerbaijan’s renewable energy revolution.
