Research & Commentary Results

In this week’s Monday Briefing, contributors Mirette F. Mabrouk, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Przemysław Osiewicz, Grace Wermenbol, and W. Robert Pearson provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the EU-Arab League summit, the progress in US-Taliban talks, challenges to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s power, consequences of the Kashmir attack, and Turkey’s next steps in Syria.

As the Sochi talks made clear, for all their efforts, Russia and Turkey remain far from a joint resolution on Manbij. But the two sides do not have equal clout on the issue. Russia’s significant and expanding military police presence in the Manbij countryside gives Moscow the final say on what will happen there, a reality that could result in Ankara losing some or all of the region to its Syrian rivals in Damascus.

In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and W. Robert Pearson provide analysis on Saudi-Pakistan relations, Turkish politics in the lead-up to March municipal elections, and the question of what to do with ISIS prisoners after the group’s territorial collapse.

The ongoing civil conflict in Yemen is a continuation of a cycle of violence, political upheaval, and institutional collapse, caused by the failure of Yemeni society to address and resolve the popular anger and frustration arising from political marginalization, economic disenfranchisement, and the effects of an extractive, corrupt, rentier state.

This article was published by IranSource on February 6, 2019.

The Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah trilateral partnership has been decades in the making. It pre-dates the Syrian civil war, has strengthened as a result of the war and will likely endure in the post-war years.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) recent seizure of the northern Syrian province of Idlib once again brings to the fore the debate over HTS’ renunciation of al-Qaeda (AQ). But can a group renounce AQ? If so, how should Western countries react, if at all?

MEI’s Robert Ford and Charles Lister join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the announced US withdrawal from Syria, the rush to fill the power vacuum that has ensued in its wake, and what the policy means for Syrians and the fight against ISIS.

Power dynamics between the major global and regional powers have indirectly influenced the civil wars currently plaguing the Middle East. The distribution of power caused by end of the Cold War facilitated the creation of two opposing camps that later competed for regional primacy in the civil wars of Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

There is no doubt that minors are fighting in the ranks of the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia that controls most of the country’s northeast, but just how widespread is this phenomenon?

President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would withdraw U.S. troops from Syria came as a surprise to all parties involved, sparking particular concern among America’s Syrian Kurdish allies. This sudden and unexpected decision has been widely criticized not only by allies but also those inside the White House, with many analysts arguing that the U.S. withdrawal will expose the Syrian Kurds to an attack by Turkey. This move may push the YPG to seek the protection of Moscow following the US’s withdrawal in order to secure stability and dialogue with the government in Damascus.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Ahmad Majidyar, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Guney Yildiz provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including U.S. negotiations with the Taliban in Afghanistan, a warning sent to Israel by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the Sudanese president’s appeal for external support, Turkish-Syrian diplomacy, and Pakistan’s acceptance of Gulf aid.

Zmkin Ali and Mac Skelton of the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS) at the American University of Iraq Sulaimani, join host Alistair Taylor for a discussion on Iraq’s political climate, Baghdad’s relations with Erbil in the aftermath of the 2017 referendum, and other regional dynamics.

This article was published by The Hill on January 23, 2019.

Once again, Turks and Kurds are squaring off to fight. Turks and Kurds have clashed with one another for nearly 1,000 years. The Kurds were in the Middle East first, with roots stretching back millennia. The Turks arrived in historical times and absorbed most Kurds into the Ottoman Empire. 

In recent months fighting has repeatedly broken out between Syrian and Iranian-backed militias around Deir ez-Zor, initially over control of taxes and smuggling routes, but increasingly the conflict has taken on a strategic dimension as well.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, W. Robert Pearson, and Mirette F. Mabrouk provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent visit to the Middle East, recent protests in Sudan, Iranian outreach to Baghdad, President Trump’s discussion with President Erdogan on treatment of the Kurds, and the first meeting of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum.