Though Tehran continues to engage the government in Kabul in a pragmatic fashion, Iran and the Taliban are not traditional friends or allies; they share an uneasy relationship. There is a sectarian angle to their differences and a long-standing dispute over water resources. Yet Iran has sought to normalize relations due to broader geopolitical considerations, security concerns, and perceived economic opportunities.
Saudi-Houthi Agreement: Four Scenarios and Their Potential Impact
Less than 10 years after seizing power in Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthi militia continues to evolve — and so do the threats emanating from it. After several years of negotiations, it now seems likely that the Houthis and Saudis will reach a peace agreement, and it is worth considering how such a deal could change the group’s trajectory. This report examines a number of possible futures that could develop in Yemen over the next 1-2 years based on shifting capabilities, interests, and alliances.
Strategic foresight is helping create Arab futures
On March 5-7, 2024, the United Nations’ Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) hosted the annual Arab Forum for Sustainable Development (AFSD). The inclusion of a special session on “Collaborative Futures: Strategic Foresight for Sustainable Development in a World of Crisis” is another example of the growing attention to foresight-driven analysis and decision-making among leaders in the Arab world.
يبدو أن الرئيس التونسي قيس سعيد يعمل على وضع استراتيجية اقتصادية جديدة. في حين أنه سبق له أن حدد أولوياته بخطوط عريضة، مثل مكافحة الفساد والدفاع عن السيادة، إلا أنه بدأ مؤخراً في إضافة المزيد من التفاصيل، متبنياً نهجاً شخصياً يبدو أنه يحاول تجاوز الهياكل المؤسسية القائمة.
The great financing gap: The state of climate funding in MENA
The Middle East and North Africa region is one of the lowest recipients of climate finance compared to other areas of the globe, such as East Asia and the Pacific Islands, despite MENA’s exposure to extreme climate risks. The MENA region’s share of climate financing from the big three global climate funds — the Green Climate Fund (GCF), the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) — and their sub-funds made up only 6.6% of their cumulative global financing through 2023.
Over the past two decades, relations between Israel and China expanded significantly. Since then, however, there have been indications that the growth prospects for the bilateral relationship have diminished. China’s stance on the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack and on Israel’s conduct during the ensuing war in Gaza, in particular, has further cast doubt on the future trajectory of the relationship.
A better development funding model for Lebanon: Prospects, challenges, and applicable lessons
International funders have often called upon recipients to carry out reforms before any funding can be made available or the amount increased. But in many crisis-wracked countries, such as Lebanon, the prospect of reforms may be too distant, with intervention needed immediately. This is why greater emphasis must be placed on risk mitigation measures over which funders can exercise control.
The Next Paradigm-Shattering Threat? Right-Sizing the Potential Impacts of Generative AI on Terrorism
This Study analyzes how and to what extent terrorists and violent extremists have interacted with generative AI so far, identifies potential ways in which they could misuse generative AI in the future, and then contextualizes these threats with the likely broader impacts of generative AI. In doing so, the Study seeks to identify a likely trajectory for the abuse of this technology by terrorist actors as well as concludes with some initial recommendations for policymakers.
Rebuilding Gaza: Navigating the politics of infrastructure
The scale of rebuilding needed after the Gaza war, in addition to the difficult political questions involved, will require close international coordination as well as innovative, future-informed thinking.
Egypt’s Economy: Missed Opportunities and Flawed Priorities
For the past several decades, successive Egyptian governments have practised the economic equivalent of riding a skateboard without a helmet; risky but manageable in the short run as long as one doesn’t encounter any obstacles. However, the inevitable has happened. Egypt’s economy smashed into not one, but two, major obstacles; a pandemic, which it just managed to stagger away from (World Bank, 2021), followed by the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Africa-to-Europe value chains: How nearshoring can mitigate Europe’s migration crisis and aid energy transition
Africa-to-Europe value chains in manufacturing and agri-food production can mitigate factors driving current migration patterns by employing Africans in local value-added production and boosting African GDP growth, reorienting Africa-Europe relations towards mutual economic benefit and dignity.
The Biden Administration’s National Cybersecurity Strategy: Opportunities and Challenges
The Biden administration’s National Cybersecurity Strategy, published in March 2023, outlines how the White House plans on defending America’s digital ecosystem from malicious threat actors. The document defines key priorities for shaping a global cyber landscape that is more resilient and secure, but the administration will face obstacles and challenges while putting its plan into action. Overcoming these obstacles will require it to devise flexible, sustainable, and realistic policies at home and establish robust cyber coalitions and trade frameworks with allies and partners abroad.
The implications of Red Sea instability on the global LNG market
Well over 30 attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea have been reported since mid-November 2023, although none have targeted crude oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers to date. But that is not to say that global energy flows through this critical maritime chokepoint are invulnerable; any harm that came to hydrocarbon carriers traveling into or out of the Red Sea via the Bab el-Mandeb would have far-reaching consequences for international markets.
