Curb Your Enthusiasm: Why the Midterms Might Not Change Much in US Middle East Policy
With less than a week before the midterm elections in the United States, the spotlight is on the economy and cultural divides. US foreign policy remains mostly on the sidelines, but this year’s inconclusive Iran war and its effect on America’s economy have shaped the broader political environment in this electoral cycle.
The Multiple Costs of the US–Iran War – From Hormuz to Europe and South Asia: The Widening Economic and Political Geography of the Conflict
Wars are decided by those who hold military power, but their costs are increasingly borne by those who have little or no voice in the decisions that start them. The US–Iran war shows this imbalance very clearly. Its economic consequences have gone far beyond the battlefield and have disrupted energy markets, trade routes, food supplies, public finances and investment in the Gulf, Europe, Africa and Asia. The most striking feature of the conflict, however, is not only the size of the damage but its very unequal distribution.
In recent weeks, the Iran-backed Houthis have fired missiles and drones deep into Saudi Arabia, striking high-profile targets, including Riyadh’s airport and Aramco’s headquarters. The attacks follow a rapid Houthi offensive in September to seize key parts of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, which Saudi-backed government forces are now trying to roll back. Fatima Abo Alasrar, an affiliated scholar at MEI and non-resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to unpack the latest phase of the conflict. They discuss what the Houthis want, Riyadh’s calculus and search for allies, and how this campaign ties into Iran’s confrontation with the United States.
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Khamenei’s Aide Rejects France’s Proposal to “Supplement” Iran Deal
A top aide to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said today that Iran will not accept European powers’ proposal to supplement the 2015 nuclear deal with new provisions on the country’s missile program and regional ambitions.
An Iranian official from the western province of Kermanshah said Monday that the Parviz Khan border crossing between Iran and Iraq was shut down yesterday because of “internal clashes between the Iraqi federal government and Kurdistan region.” Faramorz Akbari, the governor of Ghasreshirin in Kermanshah, added that all trade transactions and transportation through this border e
An article in reformist Shargh daily has urged the Rouhani government to abstain from impulsive measures to retaliate against the Trump administration latest anti-Iran sanctions and statements. The piece entitled “Neutralizing Trump’s Bombs” argues that the best course of action for Tehran would be to focus on consolidating its latest gains in Syria and Iraq and facilitating foreign investment in the country even by American companies.
Iranian Official Hails Iraqi Forces for Foiling Israeli “Plot” in Iraqi Kurdistan
A senior Iranian official praised the Iraqi forces and Tehran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) for seizing the disputed province of Kirkuk and “thwarting” the Iraqi Kurdish leadership’s push for independence. Ali Akbar Velayati, a member of Iran’s Expediency Council, accused Masoud Barzani, the president of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, of advancing Israeli agenda in the region. “Barzani’s, and behind the scenes Israel’s, objective was seizing Kirkuk’s oil wells in favor of Israel.
President Donald Trump declared today that he will not certify the Iran nuclear agreement, arguing the deal does not serve U.S. national security interests. “I am announcing today that we cannot and will not make this certification,” he said during a speech at the White House.
Iran Reacts Angrily to Trump’s Speech, Rules out Renegotiation of Deal
The Iranian government has released a statement in reaction to President Donald Trump’s speech today, accusing the United States of violating its commitments under the 2015 nuclear accord and emphasizing that Tehran will not renegotiate the deal. “The JCPOA is a valid international instrument and an outstanding achievement in contemporary diplomacy. It cannot be renegotiated or altered. The nuclear deal is not a bilateral agreement that can be annulled by unilateral action.” The statement called on the international community not to allow the Trump administration to undermine the deal.
Iran Sees Iraqi Kurdistan’s Push for Independence as “Israeli Project”
Iranian officials and state-run media outlets continue to label the recent Iraqi Kurdish leaders’ push for independence as an “Israeli project” aimed at countering Iran’s influence in the region. Grand Ayatollah Hossein Nuri Hamedani, a senior Iranian cleric, said this week that Tehran would not “allow a new Israel to take shape in the region.” An article in Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), echoed a similar view.
Iranian Outlet Assesses Russia's Options If U.S. Leaves Nuclear Deal
An article in hardline Javan Online analyzes Russia’s potential responses if the Trump administration walks away from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the nuclear deal Iran signed with the United States, Russia, China, Germany, France and Britain in 2015. The analysis piece, entitled “Russia and J.C.P.O.A.
Iran’s Central Bank Chief Visits Turkey to Finalize Currency Swap Deal
Valiollah Seif, the head of the Central Bank of Iran (C.B.I.), has traveled to Ankara to meet with his Turkish counterpart and finalize a plan to do trade exchanges based on currency swap, Tasnim News Agency reported. He expressed the hope that the move would help the two countries efforts to meet their goal of boosting the volume of annual bilateral trade to $30 billion.
Iran Warns Trump against Leaving J.C.P.O.A., Blacklisting I.R.G.C.
As the Trump administration is expected to decertify Iran’s compliance with the nuclear agreement this week, Iranian leaders are mulling their options on how to respond. While de-certification does not mean Washington is necessarily walking away from the accord and it will be up to Congress to decide whether to keep the deal or re-impose sanctions on Iran, Tehran is preparing for the worst-case scenario. Even if U.S. unilaterally abandons the deal, the Rouhani government appears willing to stay in the deal as long as European powers disregard U.S.
The Russians dramatically stepped up their involvement in the Middle East in 2015 when they intervened militarily in the Syrian conflict to support President Assad. Since then, Moscow has become a hot destination, with more heads of state from the Middle East visiting the Russian capital than Washington this year. MEI experts Robert Ford, Gerald Feierstein, and Gonul Tol join host Paul Salem to discuss what this trend means for the region.
The Syrian civil war is now well into its sixth year. Over the years, the conflict has passed through a series of distinct phases. Now it is entering a new one. More than any before it, however, the current situation is giving rise to a host of false conclusions.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
