Curb Your Enthusiasm: Why the Midterms Might Not Change Much in US Middle East Policy
With less than a week before the midterm elections in the United States, the spotlight is on the economy and cultural divides. US foreign policy remains mostly on the sidelines, but this year’s inconclusive Iran war and its effect on America’s economy have shaped the broader political environment in this electoral cycle.
The Multiple Costs of the US–Iran War – From Hormuz to Europe and South Asia: The Widening Economic and Political Geography of the Conflict
Wars are decided by those who hold military power, but their costs are increasingly borne by those who have little or no voice in the decisions that start them. The US–Iran war shows this imbalance very clearly. Its economic consequences have gone far beyond the battlefield and have disrupted energy markets, trade routes, food supplies, public finances and investment in the Gulf, Europe, Africa and Asia. The most striking feature of the conflict, however, is not only the size of the damage but its very unequal distribution.
In recent weeks, the Iran-backed Houthis have fired missiles and drones deep into Saudi Arabia, striking high-profile targets, including Riyadh’s airport and Aramco’s headquarters. The attacks follow a rapid Houthi offensive in September to seize key parts of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, which Saudi-backed government forces are now trying to roll back. Fatima Abo Alasrar, an affiliated scholar at MEI and non-resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to unpack the latest phase of the conflict. They discuss what the Houthis want, Riyadh’s calculus and search for allies, and how this campaign ties into Iran’s confrontation with the United States.
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Iran: Consequences of Referendum Will be Dire for Iraq and Region
Secretary of Iran’s Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei has warned that the consequences of the Iraqi Kurdistan’s plan to hold an independence referendum will be dire for Iraq and the broader region. “Disintegration of Iraq would mark the beginning of widespread insecurity not only in Iraq, but in the entire region… We oppose such a referendum and call on the Kurdish leaders to halt that plan,” he said at a press conference in Baghdad on Monday.
Iran and Russia Discuss Next Diplomatic and Military Steps about Syria
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy on Syria today met with Iranian officials in Tehran to assess the latest developments and coordinate the two countries’ military and diplomatic efforts regarding the Syrian war. According to Iranian media, Alexander Lavrentiev briefed Iranian officials on Moscow’s recent talks with other foreign powers regarding Syria ahead of the next Astana meeting.
MEI experts Paul Salem, Will Wechsler, Marvin Weinbaum, and Ahmad Majidyar discuss current issues in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and U.S. policy and strategic interests in the region.
Hezbollah-Islamic State Deal Divides Iraqi Leaders
After Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi criticized the latest Hezbollah and Syria-backed agreement to transfer Islamic State fighters from the Lebanese-Syrian border to eastern Syria near the Iraqi border, several Iraqi political and militia leaders close to Tehran voiced support for the deal and praised Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Iranian and Qatari Leaders Pledge to Expand Bilateral Ties
Iran opposes “unjust” sanctions against Qatar and is ready to expand its relations with the Arab country in all fields, President Hassan Rouhani said in a phone conversation with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani on Thursday. “The Islamic Republic of Iran believes what was imposed on Qatar was unfair and that it fuels tension between regional countries. Iran will do all in its power to cooperate with and assist the Qatari people and government as well as to [promote] regional stability,” Rouhani added.
Iran-Backed Iraqi Paramilitary Forces Will Participate in Hawija Offensive
The spokesman of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) has announced that the paramilitary forces will participate in the next major offensive against the Islamic State in Hawija city of Iraq’s Kirkuk Province. Ali al-Husseini said on Friday that the military operation will begin within a few days. There are about 2,000 Islamic State fighters in Hawija, Fars News Agency quotes a local official as saying. The P.M.F.
Iran praised the latest report by the International Atomic energy Agency (I.A.E.A.) on the country’s compliance with the nuclear agreement as “Iran’s victory and Washington’s defeat.” The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency said that the nuclear watchdog’s report was the latest sign that the White House has failed in its efforts to derail the
Israel has weathered the campaign to oust Bashar al-Assad far better than its neighbors. Unlike many others, Israel was never a true believer in the failed effort to topple the Assad regime, preferring an opportunistic rather than a principled strategy that aimed at keeping Israel out of harm’s way.
The challenges of postwar Syria, however, may prove more daunting. Israel must now deter any interest by Syria’s Arab and Iranian allies to deploy military forces in Syria against it.
Rouhani and Erdogan Pledge to Boost Bilateral Ties, Cooperate on Regional Problems
Iran wants to cooperate more closely with Turkey to resolve regional problems, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a telephone conversation earlier today. Rouhani offered his congratulations to Erdogan on the occasion of Eid al-Adha and stressed that he will do more during his second term in office to expand Tehran’s ties with Ankara in all fields.
Iran’s New Defense Minister: Support for “Resistance Front” Will Continue
Iran’s new defense minister has said that the country will continue to support the “resistance front” by providing “advisory” assistance. In an interview with the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (I.R.I.B.), Brigadier General Amir Hatami also stressed the need for employing “defense diplomacy” to ensure Iran’s national security interests in the region. He claimed that Iran’s enemies are worried that the Islamic Republic has become a “role model for resistance” and supports resistance groups in the region.
A new homegrown military submarine Fateh (Conqueror) is going through final tests and will soon join the Iranian naval forces, Defense Minister Brigadier General Amir Hatami has said. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, the new Iranian defense minister added that the 527-ton Fateh submarine is a semi-heavy undersurface vessel. The submarine reportedly is equipped with an advanced sonic radar system which can identify enemy vessels and uses a missile defense system.
U.S. and Iran on a Collision Course in Syria, Again
Iran and its allies are sending reinforcements near a de-confliction zone in southeastern Syria to pressure the U.S. military to withdraw from a strategic garrison near al-Tanf border crossing. Both Tehran and Damascus see the presence of U.S. troops training rebel forces in al-Tanf, as well as in northeastern Syria, as a serious threat. Iran also views the expulsion of the U.S.
Iran Expanding Influence in Syria, Despite Israeli Warnings
Even before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at the Black Sea resort of Sochi last Wednesday for his sixth consultation in two years with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow’s representative in Tel Aviv laid out a soothing if improbable vision of a Syria free of Iranian troops and Shiite militias.
Israel-Palestine: What Can Be Learned from Other Conflicts?
Israelis and Palestinians tend to be invested in the notion that their conflict is unique in its intractability. But other conflicts have reached a measure of resolution, or at least extended periods of non-violence. Learning from their limited success can offer insights and key policy implications; learning from their failures can provide valuable warnings and lessons. Comparing conflicts can even humanize what’s happening in Israel and the occupied territories.
Jared Kushner was on a Middle East mission last week attempting to do what at least half a dozen U.S. emissaries and special presidential envoys have failed to do for more than two decades: putting the peace process on track toward concluding a final settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. But there was a marked change in the U.S. tone, as Kushner, accompanied by Special Envoy for International Negotiations Jason Greenblatt and Deputy N.S.A. Adviser Dina Powell, met with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt before heading to Israel and the West Bank.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
