Israelis turned out in their highest numbers in decades on October 27 for the country’s first election since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc lost 15 seats and its Knesset majority, but Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc also fell short, leaving Arab parties, with a record 19 seats, potentially decisive in forming the next government. MEI Senior Fellow Natan Sachs joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to unpack the results, the coalition math, and what comes next for Israel’s security policy, the wider region, and US-Israeli relations.
Recent Elections and What They May Mean for the Middle East
Recent elections for the Israeli Knesset and American Congress may make less of a difference in the Middle East than some people think. Elections are significant indicators of national political trends, but do not always translate into changes in national security strategies. That is likely the case now in both nations.
The Coming Debate Over the US Military Presence in the Gulf
The war with Iran is hardly over, but the debate over the shape and nature of the post-conflict American posture in the Gulf region is just beginning. Undoubtedly, how the war ends will affect how the United States adjusts its role. While this debate is still in its early stages, something of a conventional wisdom is already developing in policy circles that could seriously compromise American influence in the Middle East.
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
The current crisis in Gaza represents the first real foreign policy test for Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Hamas’s rejection of the Egyptian initiative to end hostilities calls into question Egypt’s ability to maintain its decades-long special status as mediator, a role it assumed by virtue of its relations with all parties – Israel and the United States on one hand, and the PLO and Hamas on the other.
The Israeli incursion into Gaza and the ensuing diplomatic efforts to end the violence have revealed Turkey’s waning influence in the region.
The Turkish government has been promoting itself as a potential mediator between Israel and Hamas. The latter’s rejection of an Egyptian ceasefire in mid-July bolstered Turkey’s hopes of playing a key role, as did its inclusion in this past weekend’s Paris summit hosted by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.
The primacy of ethnic Malays (and by association their adherence to Sunni Islam) has meant that Shi‘i Islam is considered a “deviant” sect in the country. Although official spokespeople regularly claim that the state has no concerns about Shi’a practicing their faith as long as they refrain from proselytizing, adherents face both social and legal restrictions.
When the Nidaa Tounes (“Call for Tunisia”) party was formally licensed in July 2012, it positioned itself as a “modern” alternative to the Islamist Ennahda party. Led by former interim prime minister Béji Caid Essebsi, Nidaa Tounes drew a wide range of people, including supporters of Tunisia’s Destourian (“Constitution”) movement, trade unionists, leftists, and independents, as well as former members of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali’s Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) party.
Egypt’s Least Bad Option for Addressing Energy Troubles
A proposed deal to export Israeli natural gas through Egypt has the potential to enable Israel’s entry into its first major export markets, help Egypt escape a deepening energy crisis, and welcome the first European players into Israel’s natural gas industry. However, the deal is complicated by political realities and a history of deeply rooted grievances between the two countries, made worse by the recent violence between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Shi‘a-Inspired Violence in Malaysia: A Possibility?
Ever since the triumph of Iranian Shi’a revolutionaries against the shah in 1979, the Malaysian government has been wary of the dangers of the revolution being exported across its borders. The author argues that rather than oppressing and vilifying indigenous Shi‘a citizens, the state should engage them intellectually, socially, and perhaps even religiously, in the spirit of Prime Minister Najib Razak.
When US commanders in Iraq in 2006 were trying to figure out the best way to approach the burgeoning insurgency, two points of view emerged from the debate.
Sectarian-Based Violence: The Case of the Yezidis in Iraq and Syria
Historically, the Yezidis — an ancient Kurdish-speaking ethno-religious community — have been subject to discrimination and violence. The current status of this community in Iraq and Syria is precarious, at best.
The Role of Civil Society in Countering Violent Extremism in Indonesia
The Indonesian experience suggests that an over-reliance on hard power may actually be counter-productive, inadvertently strengthening rather than weakening the violent Islamist extremists. The author explains the need for an indirect strategy in which calibrated hard power is subordinated to and supplemented by softer measures aimed at diminishing the underlying conditions that give rise to violent extremism.
Amb. Philip Wilcox, MEI scholar and president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace, discusses the motivations that led to the current escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas, and why Israel decided to pursue a ground assault in Gaza.
Israel’s ground assault continues an historical pattern of dealing with threats from adversaries. How well has this strategy worked before?
Egypt’s Sexual Harassment Law: An Insufficient Measure to End Sexual Violence
A few days ago, heavy court sentences were imposed on seven men who were convicted of attempted rape, attempted murder, and torture, in a ruling seen by many as unprecedented in Egypt. In the words of one activist, the verdict was “a strong message to all harassers that their actions are no longer tolerated or accepted.”[1] This comes in the wake of the government’s vows to combat the problem of sexual harassment; a new law passed last month criminalized sexual harassment for the first time.
Egypt’s New Parliamentary Election Law: Back to the Future
Just 48 hours before handing over the reigns to now President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt’s interim President Adly Mansour signed into law a controversial piece of legislation that regulates elections for Egypt’s new House of Representatives.[1] Since the law was announced in early June, it has generated conflicting analysis regarding its impact on the nature of the electoral system, the character of the legislature that will be elected as a result, and the extent to which it might further empower the president.
تُعد المجلة الرئيسية لمعهد الشرق الأوسط أقدم مطبوعة محكّمة مكرّسة لدراسة الشرق الأوسط الحديث، وتغطي المجلة الرئيسية في المعهد السياسة والمجتمع والثقافة في المنطقة.
