When the Strait of Hormuz closed in March, fertilizer prices spiked within weeks, triggering a food security crisis across North Africa and the Sahel. Host Alistair Taylor is joined by MEI Senior Fellow Intissar Fakir to explore what it means for the region, unpack the link between food security and regional stability, and assess how the strait’s reopening could impact those affected.
This backgrounder provides an overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a regional political and economic alliance comprising six states in the Arabian Peninsula: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
A Strategic Conundrum: Pakistan’s Transit Corridor to Iran as Lifeline or Liability
The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz — disruptive to global trade and energy flows, and devastating for debt-burdened economies — has handed Pakistan an unexpected geoeconomic opportunity, one that may persist even if the framework agreement announced on June 14 results in a lasting peace and permanent reopening of the strait. But seizing it will have interlocking consequences for Islamabad’s ties with Tehran, Washington, and the Gulf states.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
This backgrounder provides an overview of how the Abraham Accords came about, the US interests involved, their economic and strategic consequences, and the prospects for further enlargement going forward.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
As the Western Sahara conflict reaches its fifth decade, the territorial dispute remains unresolved and largely unknown. MEI’s Intissar Fakir unpacks the Western Sahara’s complex history and the rival claims by Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. She examines recent developments, such as President Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory and the collapse of a 30-year cease-fire, as well as the core questions that remain unanswered after half a century.
Podcasts
Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Escalation and Regional Risks in a New Karabakh War
Fierce fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces represents a dramatic escalation in longstanding tensions, with the two countries on an all-out war footing following over a week of battle. Although the fighting has already dramatically eclipsed previous spikes in violence since the 1994 ceasefire, the most recent conflagration shows no signs of abating anytime soon, and raises the specter of even greater escalation among regional and global powers.
In the recently released Showtime documentary “Kingdom of Silence” by Alex Gibney and Lawrence Wright, I made the statement that with hindsight the U.S. may have been better off never having occupied Afghanistan. That comment has brought some questions and responses, so let me be clear about what I mean and why.
Monday Briefing: Will Washington risk a collapse in Iraq?
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Robert S. Ford, Gonul Tol, Paul Salem, Dr. Marwa Maziad, and Marvin G. Weinbaum.
Turkey, Russia and the escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh
On September 27, hostilities broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Following several days of fighting, the region is now witnessing the worst escalation of tensions since the early 1990s. This time, Azerbaijan’s efforts are boosted by Turkey’s readiness to render robust military support.
حلقة 11: سيناريوهات صراع الرئاسة بين ترامب وبايدن — مع ناديا بلبيسي
– ماذا سيحصل إذا لم يكن هناك رابح في يوم الانتخابات؟ على ماذا ينص الدستور في تلك الحالة؟ هل فراغ سياسي وارد في واشنطن؟
– هل يمكن حقّاً ألّا يتنازل ترامب عن السلطة؟
– هل يمكن التلاعب بالتصويت عن طريق البريد؟
– لم غابت السياسة الخارجية كليّاً عن المناظرة؟ هل كان ذلك بقرار من المرشّحين؟ أم من مدير المناظرة من قناة فوكس؟
– من يقوم بتنظيم المناظرات الرئاسية في الولايات المتحدة؟ هل يمكن تعديل شكل المناظرة لمنع المرشحين من مقاطعة بعضهما؟ هل يمكن إجبارهما على الالتزام بذلك؟
– “تراجعوا واستعدّوا”: هذا ما قاله ترامب لمنظمة عنصرية فاشية تؤمن بالقومية البيضاء وتمنع النساء من الانضمام لصفوفها وتحثّ على العنف السياسي ضد خصومها – كيف يمكن أن يؤثر ذلك على الناخبين الأمريكيين؟
– قال بايدن بأن حركة “أنتيفا” اليسارية الراديكالية ليست منظمة، هل هذا الكلام صحيح؟ لمَ يريد ترامب تصنيفها كمنظمة إرهابية؟
– من أين تأتي أهمية معركة المحكمة الدستورية العليا؟ كيف يمكن أن تغيّر القاضية التي يريد ترامب تعيينها شكل الحياة في الولايات المتحدة، خصوصاً حياة المهاجرين والأقليات والنساء؟
What are the implications of the passing of Kuwait’s emir, Sheikh Sabah?
With the announcement that Kuwait’s long-time ruler, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, had passed away, on Sept. 29, at the age of 91, the Gulf states lost their second senior statesman of 2020 following the death of Sultan Qaboos of Oman at the beginning of the year. Like Qaboos, Sheikh Sabah played an outsized role within the GCC as well as in regional and international affairs.
Fourteen years after the Palestinian pro-Islamist group Hamas won a majority of seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in 2006, Palestinians may finally be returning to elections as a mechanism to resolve their differences and to present a unified legitimate national leadership. In a sign of progress toward reconciliation, Palestinian leaders met in person and over teleconference on September 3 and vowed to address threats to the Palestinian national movement. Most recently, President Abbas, addressing the U.N. General Assembly on September 25, declared that presidential elections would take place soon.The question now will be whether a unified Palestinian policy, means of accomplishing it, and a new leadership can be born in the coming six months.
As the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain move forward with their separate processes to normalize relations with Israel, the question that seems to be on the mind of many, both in Washington and in the region, is whether or when the Saudis will follow.
Using digital tools, the IRGC strengthens its grip on power in Iran
Over the past decade, Iran has made a concerted push to expand its cyber capabilities, an effort in which the IRGC has played a central role. Given the IRGC’s expansive and growing power, scholars, analysts, and many Iran watchers have long thought that at some point it could take over control in Iran, replacing the theocratic government with a military one. As Iran approaches an inflection point over the issue of succession after Ayatollah Khamenei, that day could be coming soon, and the IRGC is well placed to bring about such a transition given the hybrid mix of physical and cyber capabilities that it has developed and perfected over recent decades.
How can China maintain good relations with both Israel and Iran?
In recent years, China has become increasingly involved in the international arena, including the Middle East. As a rising superpower, China finds itself, time and again, needing to maintain relationships with countries that are hostile to one another. This is particularly true in the Middle East, which is one of the most conflictual areas in the world. China faces a challenge as it seeks to maintain good relations with both Iran and Israel, two of the region’s fiercest and loudest adversaries. How does Beijing manage to do this, and can it continue to do so going forward?
Dictators and civilizational thinking in Iran: From the Great Civilization to Islamic Civilization
Despite critical differences between the two political regimes that have dominated Iran for nearly a century, there are striking similarities between the Pahlavi monarchy (1925-1979) and the Islamic Republic (1979-present). Like Mohammad Reza Shah, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has built a cult of personality around himself and has engaged in “civilizational thinking” — a preoccupation with defining the eternal essence and world-historical destiny of Iran through references to a glorious (one might say “glorified”) collective past. Nonetheless, the two leaders have interpreted Iranian history in vastly differing ways that serve divergent ideological ends.
Monday Briefing: Will Russia and Turkey face off over Nagorno-Karabakh?
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Maxim A. Suchkov, Ibrahim Jalal, Eliza Campbell, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum.
Abkhazia, Georgia and COVID: An opportunity from crisis
As with nearly everywhere in 2020, the Caucasus has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. While Armenia has registered by far the most cases of the three internationally recognized South Caucasian states, it’s another regional territory where the pandemic’s effects are being felt most broadly: the breakaway Georgian province of Abkhazia.
Challenges of economic integration in the Black Sea
Countries in the Black Sea region have largely failed to integrate with their neighbors, despite common levels of openness and dependence on foreign trade. For many countries in the region, trade has become a driving force for growth, accounting for on average one-third of regional GDP. However, Black Sea supply chains largely connect the region to the outside world – primarily Europe and Asia – instead of neighboring countries. Highly integrated trade relationships, like those seen in Southeast Asia, simply do not exist amongst Black Sea countries.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
