Wars don’t just end. They get interpreted, reinterpreted, and turned into strategic doctrine. That is what happened after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, a conflict that saw the United States back Tehran’s Iraqi adversaries. The war taught Tehran three lessons it never unlearned: that Washington wants the Islamic Republic gone, that Iran stands essentially alone in the world, and that it cannot survive a direct, overt fight with the U.S. and Israel.
Within 48 hours this week, Iran filled six of the most important posts in its battered military and security establishment. Read together with the biographies and mandates behind them, the appointments show how Tehran is drawing lessons from successive wars and preparing for a prolonged period of insecurity, without proving it has abandoned negotiation.
In an August 9 interview with Axios, when asked about the endless swings of the Iran standoff, he shrugged it off as familiar territory. “It’ll work out in the end. It always does. It’s like a chess game.”
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
المدونات الصوتية
التركيز على الشرق الأوسط
البودكاست الأسبوعي الرائد لمعهد الشرق الأوسط حول السياسة الخارجية الأمريكية والقضايا السياسية والاجتماعية المعاصرة في الشرق الأوسط.
Although the current oil-market landscape might seem beneficial to the Gulf states, it will be difficult to sustain amid major drops in global oil supply, Washington’s standoff with Moscow and Tehran, and quota disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
The most recent EU summit, in June 2018, only proved that the EU’s member states do not share any common long-term perspective on migration from Middle East to Europe. This lack of cohesion, as well as a lack of substantial cooperation with the U.S., are the best recipe for a humanitarian disaster in 2019.
Dark Clouds, Silver Lining: Kerala Floods, Gulf Responses, and More Lessons
The unprecedented flooding witnessed in the Indian state of Kerala in August 2018 has been heart wrenching. Climate experts and meteorologists have dubbed it the worst flooding observed in the state in over a century. As the floodwaters recede in Kerala, leaving behind lost lives and damaged houses and wiped out livelihoods, it is important to imbibe the lessons that this disaster has offered for effective relief and sustainable reconstruction.
Khashoggi crisis creates new challenges for Turkey’s foreign policy
The incident threatens to spark a major crisis between the two countries, and potentially between Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s Gulf allies, putting much-needed Gulf investment at risk.
Hopes for progress in Yemen have been stymied by setbacks in recent weeks, perpetuating a military and political stalemate. Marcia Biggs, special correspondent for PBS NewsHour, joins guest host Gerald Feierstein to discuss the humanitarian conditions she witnessed on the ground and what the international community can do to help reach a resolution to the crisis.
On Sep. 13, 1993, President Bill Clinton presided over one of the most dramatic handshakes in modern history. On the White House lawn, the handshake between Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and the Palestinian Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat was hailed as a political breakthrough that would constitute the dawn of a new era for the Middle East. Now, 25 years after the announcement of the Declaration of Principles––also known as the Oslo Accords––the prospect of peace appears more elusive than ever.
Iran-backed Houthi rebels step up persecution of Baha’i minority in Yemen
Earlier last week, Iranian-backed Houthi authorities arrested 24 Baha’is on charges of espionage and apostasy, which are punishable by death. Amongst those arrested are eight women, a teenage girl, and 15 men that hold leadership positions in the Baha’i community in Yemen. The charges – including accusations of being agents for Israel, the U.S., and the U.K –were formalized during their trial, which took place secretly and without a prior notice on September 15. Followers of the faith claim that they have been subjected to increasing harassment since the Houthis’ rise to power in 2014, and they attribute that to Iran’s influence over the rebel movement.
From "fascists" to friends: Erdogan embraces the EU
The one good thing that has come out of the ongoing tension in Turkey-U.S. relations has been the rapprochement between Turkey and its key European allies. With no immediate prospect of normalization with Washington, Erdogan now feels he must mend ties with the European countries that he called “Nazi remnants” not long ago to help his country’s ailing economy.
It was a busy week for Middle East policy as President Trump touched on a range of key issues at the United National General Assembly in New York, including Iran sanctions, the intra-GCC dispute, OPEC policy, Saudi domestic reforms, and the Middle East peace process, among others. Gerald Feierstein, MEI’s director for policy research, programs and government relations, and Ahmad Majidyar, director for MEI’s IranObserved program, join host Paul Salem to break down what was said, as well as what issues were left off the agenda.
Foreign Actors in Post-revolutionary Tunisia: Enhancing Democratization and Lowering Political Tensions
As the barriers erected by Tunisia’s autocratic regime have crumbled, the range of programs delivered by international democracy promotion organizations has steadily increased. This essay examines the reasons for this growth and the distinctive manner in which foreign actors have involved themselves in Tunisia’s national politics since the 2011 revolution.
The PLO office closure and the state of US-Palestinian relations
U.S.-Palestinian relations have faced repeated setbacks over the past year, from the decision to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, to cutting off funding to UNRWA. This month the Trump administration ordered the closure of the PLO’s office in Washington and revoked the visas of PLO Ambassador Husam Zomlot’s family members. Dr. Zomlot joins host Paul Salem via Skype from Ramallah to discuss the state of relations, and where the peace process can go from here.
The U.S.’s troubled relationship with Pakistan continues to be eroded by crisis after crisis. Leave alone the pretense of any strategic convergence, the two countries are finding it difficult to maintain even a transactional relationship. If events surrounding a short visit by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Islamabad are any indicator, it will not be easy to reduce the trust gap in bilateral ties.
Iran under Sanctions: India and China over a Barrel
Bearish and bullish factors are both at play in the global oil market, weighing on prices. The next big date on the calendar is November 4 — the point at which the 180-day wind-down period ends and U.S. sanctions on the Iranian energy sector are to be reinstated. Two days later, the U.S. midterm elections are due to take place.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Jonathan M. Winer, Robert S. Ford, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including political turmoil in Libya, the meeting between Turkey and Russia to discuss the fate of Idlib province, and Iran’s attempts to forge new relationships to offset U.S. sanctions.
Tunisian jihadism five years after Ansar al-Sharia
Jihadism in Tunisia is currently at its greatest nadir since the 2011 revolution, which overthrew former President Zine al-Abidine Ben ‘Ali and subsequently provided a space for Tunisian jihadism to grow. Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia (AST) and later ISIS and Katibat ‘Uqbah Bin Nafi (KUBN) emerged as the most prominent such groups in Tunisia.
تُعد المجلة الرئيسية لمعهد الشرق الأوسط أقدم مطبوعة محكّمة مكرّسة لدراسة الشرق الأوسط الحديث، وتغطي المجلة الرئيسية في المعهد السياسة والمجتمع والثقافة في المنطقة.
