The Other MoU: Launching a Europe-Gulf Resilience Initiative After the US-Iran Deal
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran may have ended one of the most consequential Middle Eastern crises in decades, but it has not resolved the strategic problem it exposed. Whether the 60-day talks it set in motion will produce a final agreement remains far from certain.Yet the central lessons are already clear: Iran has preserved significant leverage, Washington has had to scale back its ambitions, and Europe and the Gulf face the prospect of protracted regional tension. Europe and the Gulf should therefore use the aftermath of the US-Iran deal to articulate their own “other MoU”: a Europe-Gulf Resilience initiative.
A Post-War Model for Verifying Iran’s Missile Arsenal
This study proposes a model for constraining and verifying Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal by employing a layered Strategic Verification Model with seven components: comprehensive baseline declarations; missile test and launch monitoring; intrusive inspections; quantitative and qualitative limits on missile capabilities; production controls, especially on solid-fuel manufacturing; a robust enforcement and compliance architecture; and regional confidence building measures.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
This backgrounder provides an overview of how the Abraham Accords came about, the US interests involved, their economic and strategic consequences, and the prospects for further enlargement going forward.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
As the Western Sahara conflict reaches its fifth decade, the territorial dispute remains unresolved and largely unknown. MEI’s Intissar Fakir unpacks the Western Sahara’s complex history and the rival claims by Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. She examines recent developments, such as President Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory and the collapse of a 30-year cease-fire, as well as the core questions that remain unanswered after half a century.
Podcasts
Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Online and Traditional Forms of Protest Mobilization: Morocco’s Rif Protests and Beyond
When investigating the relative role that social media and other factors can play in the mobilization of popular demonstrations, the recent Rif protests, which some have perceived as having the potential to spark a “second Arab Spring” in Morocco, are interesting to look at. These protests suggest that large-scale popular demonstrations might often result from a combination of both online mobilization and much more traditional mobilization strategies employed by charismatic movement leaders. In this sense, the Rif protests also contradict assumptions about the presumed role of “diffuse leadership,” which emerged in the context of the Arab Spring.
I.R.G.C. Rejects Erdogan’s Claim on Possible Joint Operations in Northern Iraq
Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) today rejected a claim by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the two countries were planning to launch a joint military operation against Kurdish militants in the region, the Iranian media reported. “We have not planned any operations outside the Islamic Republic of Iran’s borders,” said a statement released by the Guards on Tuesday.
Top Iranian Nuclear Official: We Can Resume 20% Enrichment within Days
The top Iranian nuclear official has warned that his country can resume high-level uranium enrichment within days if the Trump administration annuls the nuclear agreement Tehran signed with world powers two years ago. “This is not an empty threat,” Ali Akbar Salehi said in a Tuesday interview with the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, backing President Hassan Rouhani’s similar remarks last week.
New Iranian Defense Minister Reiterates Support for Quds Force and “Resistance Front”
The new Iranian defense minister has reiterated that he will continue to support the Quds Force and the “resistance front” and will only further enhance the country’s controversial missile program and other defense capabilities.
I.R.G.C. Outlet: K.R.G.’s Independence Plan Places Region at Risk
The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government’s decision to hold an independence referendum next month would further strain relations between Erbil and Baghdad and risks triggering intra-Kurdish violence, warns an article in Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.).
Monday Briefing | Abbas Hoping for a Commitment from Kushner on MidEast Peace
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Paul Salem, Ahmad Majidyar, Alex Vatanka, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the upcoming trip by the U.S. delegation headed by Jared Kushner to Israel/Palestine, Iraq’s anti-ISIS operation in Tal Afar, President Trump’s upcoming announcement on U.S. military strategy in Afghanistan, Iran’s efforts to find a role in China’s One Belt, One Road project, and Turkey’s rocky relations with Germany.
Iran-Backed Groups Playing “Extensive Role” in Tal Afar Operation
Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) commanders say their paramilitary forces are actively participating in the recently-launched military operation to liberate the city of Tal Afar from the Islamic State, the Iranian media report. The Badr Organization, a powerful Iranian-supported P.M.U. group, announced on Sunday that its forces have captured “mountainous regions” in northwestern parts of Tal Afar. A report in Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, said P.M.F.
Top Turkish Military Official to Visit Tehran for Further Talks
Turkey’s Chief of the General Staff Hulusi Akar will visit Tehran in the near future for further consultations on boosting defense ties and counterterrorism cooperation between the two countries, the Iranian media reported today. The announcement was made on Monday by the chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, who just returned from a high-level and unprecedented visit to Ankara.
Iran Blasts Haley’s Vienna Visit as “Fruitless” Attempt to Undermine Nuclear Deal
The Iranian Foreign Ministry said Monday that U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley’s visit to Vienna for talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency officials is a “fruitless” attempt to undermine the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers, the Iranian media reported “The IAEA’s responsibilities have been fully specified and defined.
President Donald Trump likes a good war of words with foreign leaders. And besides the North Koreans, the leadership in Iran makes a first-rate target for him. After all, one of his signature campaign pledges was to undo the 2015 nuclear deal that Barack Obama’s administration signed with Tehran and five world powers.
I.R.G.C. Outlet: Foreign "Plots" Underway to Divide Shiites, Damage Tehran-Baghdad Ties
Regional Arab states and their Western allies are attempting to divide the Iraqi Shiites and drive a wedge between Tehran and Baghdad to alter the balance of power in Iraq, warns an article in Tasnim News Agency, an Iranian outlet affiliated with the Isl
Iran Seeks to Play Major Role in Syria’s Economic Revival, Reconstruction
An Iranian official said on Thursday that his country is ready to meet Syria’s all trade needs and emphasized that Iranian companies are eager to help the war-torn country’s reconstruction.
20,000 P.M.F. Fighters Will Participate in Tal Afar Operation, Says Spokesman
The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Force (P.M.F.) will deploy 20,000 fighters to participate in the upcoming ground operation to liberate the city of Tal Afar from the Islamic State, P.M.F. Spokesman Ahmed al-Assadi revealed today. In an interview with Lebanon’s al-Mayadeen TV channel, Assadi said Haider al-Abadi, the prime minister and commander-in-chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, will announce the start date for the operation.
Pro-Assad Forces and Hezbollah Launching Operation along Syrian-Lebanese Border
The Syrian pro-government forces and the Lebanese Hezbollah are set to launch a joint operation along the Syrian-Lebanese shared border against Islamic State militants, Fars News Agency reported on Friday. Quoting unnamed sources from Syria, Fars, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), added that the Syrian government has sent a large military contingent of the Syrian Army forces and the National Defense Forces personnel to the western part of the Qalamoun Mountains to support the upcoming operation near Lebanon’s border.
Egypt’s modern leaders may lack the means of their forebears when it comes to raising awe-inspiring monuments, but they still find impressive ways to promote the image of a confident nation. Widely touted “mega-projects,” like the Biblioteca Alexandrina, the “new” Suez Canal, and “New Cairo,” a skyscraper-studded capital city slated to replace the embattled 1400-year-old one, all come adorned with hyperbolic attributes and historic implications for all mankind.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
