Bonus Episode: Previewing Israel’s First Post-October 7 Election
Israel is preparing to hold what may be its most consequential election in decades. On October 27, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will face his first electoral test since October 7, 2023. In this bonus episode of Middle East Focus, we present the audio from a recent MEI webinar, hosted in Israel on the eve of the vote. Senior Fellow Natan Sachs is joined by Dr. Shira Efron, Distinguished Chair for Israel Policy and senior fellow at the RAND Corporation, and Neri Zilber, veteran journalist and Financial Times correspondent. They explore what’s at stake in this historic election and how different outcomes could reshape Israel’s domestic politics and the wider region.
Israel Was Built on Hope. This Election May Be Our Last Chance to Save It
Israel’s national anthem, Hatikva, means “the hope.” Israel is not just another country, but the culmination of a 2,000-year-old dream of national redemption. The rebirth of the Jewish people’s ancestral homeland, just three years after the Holocaust, was a miraculous triumph of hope over all odds.
Today, that hope has been shattered and the elections on October 27 have become the most consequential in Israel’s history.
One striking thing about US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this past week is how isolated he was in making this call. The Israeli Prime Minister has become a widely detested figure worldwide following Israel’s war in Gaza—where Israel committed war crimes. This disdain was clearly on display in New York in September when dozens of diplomats streamed out of the hall during Netanyahu’s speech.
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Fars News, an outlet that is linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), reported that ethnic Chechen forces from Russia are now acting as police units in the Syrian city of Aleppo. The outlet reported that Chechens had also from December 2016 been deployed “to serve in the military police to protect Russia’s Khmeimim air base in Syria.”
Tehran’s fears of losing out influence during the ongoing peace talks on Syria in Astana were evident even in the makeup of the Iranian delegation. According to Iranian sources, Tehran had been compelled to dispatch a top military figure with extensive experience in Syria in order not to be eclipsed by Russian and Turkish militaries.
Iran, Russia and Turkey agreed earlier today to establish a trilateral mechanism to enforce the fragile cessation of hostilities in Syria. After a two-day meeting in Kazakhstan sponsored by Moscow, the trio issued a joint statement that called for “a political process based on the implementation of the UN Security Council resolution 2254” to end the Syrian civil war.
Iran-Backed Militia Units Continue West Mosul Operations
A senior Iraqi official has said that the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) will take part in the “liberation” of western Mosul. “The popular mobilization forces in Nineveh Province will participate in the liberation operation of Tal Afar,” Iraqi National Security Advisor Falih al-Fayyad said in an interview with Iranian state-run Al-Alam News Network published on January 23.
Iran Stresses Saudi Exclusion from Syria Peace Process
Earlier today, Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed to jointly monitor the fragile cessation of hostilities in Syria and pledged to work for a political solution to end the Syrian civil war. But while Moscow and Ankara are trying to broaden the scope of future discussions on Syria, Tehran continues to oppose the inclusion of the United States and regional Sunni states in the process.
Monday Briefing: Middle East Reactions to Trump's Inauguration
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Gerald Feierstein, and Charles Lister provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including U.S.-Middle East relations in the new Trump administration, the view of Trump’s inauguration from Tehran, the Gulf’s ‘wait and see’ approach to the new administration, and Russia’s public position on Syria talks at the outset of talks in Astana.
Iranian Delegation Reportedly Visited Helmand to Deliver Weapons to Taliban
Afghan officials say Iran has recently sent a delegation to meet with Taliban commanders in the restive province of Helmand. On January 23, Hayatullah Hayat, the governor of Helmand, told Afghanistan’s 1TV channel that the National Directorate of Security was probing allegations that the Iranian team also delivered weapons to the Taliban militants in Helmand’s Garmsir District.
Iran Upholds Five-Year Jail Term for British-Iranian Mother
On January 22, the Iranian Judiciary confirmed that a Revolutionary Court in Tehran had upheld a five-year jail term for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian charity worker incarcerated in Iran’s notorious Evin Prison. Judiciary Spokesman Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i did not make public the specific charges against her, but called her a “security convict.”
There is still plenty of anger among the Iranian population about the January 19 fire and collapse of a historic high-rise building in downtown Tehran. The number of casualties is still unknown as the emergency services are still finding bodies under the rubble.
Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran’s atomic agency, warned President Donald Trump that if he tears the 2015 nuclear agreement apart Iran will “increase its nuclear activities at a more advanced level.” Salehi’s remarks were in reaction to Trump’s phone conversation with the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu.
The reaction in Tehran to Trump arriving in the White House has been cautious, but composed. The two dominant factions inside the Iranian regime, the moderates and the hardliners, appear to agree on the question of Iran’s posture toward the Trump presidency. Early signs of this emerging consensus points to an Iran that will have to be less provocative in its actions in the Middle East in order to avoid American reprisals. Even the most hawkish voices in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps have warned about “sensitive days ahead between Iran and American generals.”
Baghdad Will “Welcome” Iran’s Controversial Ambassador Pick
A senior Iraqi official has said that Baghdad will welcome Iran’s controversial pick to be its next ambassador to Iraq. Earlier this month, the Iranian media reported that Brigadier General Iraj Masjedi, a senior advisor to Quds Force Commander Qassem Suleimani, will be Iran’s next envoy to Iraq. The news drew criticism from Saudi officials.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
