الأبحاث والتعليقات

In the Mediterranean Basin, water-starved countries from Morocco to Israel are not only expanding their reliance on desalination, they are doing so precisely because they are increasingly susceptible to the effects of climate change on global atmospheric and marine circulation. With desalination now within reach as a more viable, long-term water augmentation strategy, increased attention has been given to the detrimental effects of brine disposal on the local environment. More immediately obvious effects such as these, however, may belie greater factors at work at the nexus of salinity and climate change.

The growing wave of Algerians illegally trying to reach Southern European shores while risking death is by no means a new development. But these perilous trans-maritime voyages are also a reminder of the bleak political and economic situation in which Algeria finds itself three years after the 2019 protest movement sparked hope for fundamental change.

Following the AKP’s rise in 2002, civil-military relations in Turkey began to change significantly. The military’s tutelage over Turkish politics was gradually replaced with the AKP’s control over the Turkish Armed Forces. The July 2016 coup attempt put an end to the military’s prestige and popularity and ushered in a new era, with Erdoğan and his AKP asserting full civilian control over the military. This paper explores the factors that paved the way for the new civil-military relations between 2002 and 2016, reviews how the 2016 coup attempt became an opportunity for the AKP to further eliminate all opposition, and analyzes the impact of the upcoming 2023 elections and the opposition’s stance on civil-military relations.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

As protesters’ slogans and chants have made clear, the current protests are definitely not about the economy, but about opposition to the regime more broadly and its political and social oppression. Yet Iran’s economic problems have created an atmosphere that encouraged and fueled protesters’ anger and have done nothing to help the regime.

Lebanese crises have repeatedly made international news since October 2019, when the country witnessed the start of a popular revolution against a stagnant and corrupt political elite. Much less discussed but no less critical is the issue of water. The problem has been slumbering for years but has recently come to light along with other failings of the Lebanese government.

With the decree of a new election law on Sept. 15, President Kais Saied continues rebuilding the formal political mechanisms of the Tunisian state — what some see as a “third republic.” The new law sets the terms for the legislative elections scheduled to be held on Dec. 17, 2022, and it comes only shortly before nominations for candidacies for those elections begin on Oct. 17.

Iulia Joja interviews Henry Sokolski, the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, about how tactical nuclear weapons might play into Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine strategy.

It’s striking, the large number of brave women who are leading the protests against Iran’s violent and vicious theocratic regime. It’s likewise notable that young women lead the Ukrainian organization just awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Arguably less noticed yet equally important: Across Europe, it’s women who are transcending political and geographic boundaries to call for an end to Russia’s brutal aggression.

في 23 سبتمبر الماضي، احتفلت المملكة العربية السعودية بالذكرى التسعين لتأسيسها.

The jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria has dispatched its fighters from greater Idlib eastward, taking full control of Afrin city and at least 26 towns and villages to its southwest, most without a fight. This has placed many of its jihadist opponents back under HTS’s control. The dynamics of northwestern Syria are shifting, and the consequences look likely to be extremely significant.

تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.

Over the past decade, Turkey has been on a steadily downward economic trajectory. Throughout this long period of turmoil the government has pursued a range of different economic policies, most of which were inconsistent with one another. The transition to a presidential system under Erdoğan has had a disastrous impact on Turkey’s economic institutions and administration. This paper explores the impact of the presidential system on the Turkish economy, the country’s economic outlook, and potential solutions to the current crisis, as well as the opposition’s role and ability to implement them, with an eye to the June 2023 elections.

Relentless floods in Pakistan have resulted in thousands of deaths, widespread displacement, and economic devastation. Today, we discuss these impacts as well as Pakistan’s broader economic and climate change challenges, the ongoing political crisis, and developments on the foreign policy front.

Although Italians have elected the most far-right government of the postwar era, the future might be marked more by evolution than drastic change, at least in the short term. This is especially true when it comes to Italian foreign policy, including toward the Middle East and North Africa.