US President Donald Trump recently proposed that Syria intervene militarily against Hizballah in Lebanon. Is that a good idea? This episode of Middle East Focus features a recent MEI Virtual Briefing. Director of Communications Zeina Al-Shaib is joined by Ambassador David Hale, MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow and Charles Lister, MEI Senior Fellow. Together they examine the prospects and implications of renewed Syrian involvement in Lebanon, the potential impact on US relations with both countries, and how evolving dynamics in Lebanon and Syria could reshape the regional balance of power and affect countries such as Turkey and Israel.
Russia’s Taliban Embrace Signals a New Power Shift in Afghanistan
Sometimes the only thing more frightening than Afghanistan’s problems is the Taliban’s solutions and the recently signed Russia-Taliban military-technical agreement may be the most alarming one yet. The partnership signals that Afghanistan’s security architecture is being rebuilt without the United States, and increasingly by America’s rivals. Washington should pay close attention because the deal hands one of the world’s most repressive regimes a pathway to becoming more capable and deeply entrenched in a regional order where Russian influence is expanding at America’s expense.
A fragile cease-fire between Lebanon and Israel is barely holding as military delegations from both countries arrive in Washington for a new round of direct talks scheduled for this Friday. But diplomatic success could mean new strategic opportunities for the Lebanese nation. Guest host and MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis is joined by Lebanese Member of Parliament Fouad Makhzoumi to unpack the challenges facing the Lebanese government today, Hizballah’s influence over state institutions, and what all of this means for the country’s future. Makhzoumi also reflects on his personal journey and what inspired him to transition from business to politics in an effort to help shape a better life for his granddaughters in Lebanon.
The uneasy triangle between Turkey, the US, and the YPG
Turkey and the US recently announced an agreement for establishing a safe zone in northern Syria to serve as a buffer between Turkey and the YPG, which is seen by Ankara as a terrorist group and by Washington as a partner in the fight against ISIS. MEI’s Gonul Tol and Charles Lister join host Alistair Taylor to discuss how this policy may impact dynamics on the ground.
Leaving Syria won’t make things any better — for the US or Syria
Responding to Daniel Serwer’s “not so progressive case for withdrawing from Syria,” Charles Lister makes the case that the U.S. should remain in Syria — at the very least for long enough to secure conditions in which a realistic set of objectives could be achieved, including the existing counter-ISIS mission.
What’s next for al-Qaeda after the death of Hamza bin Laden
According to American intelligence officials, Osama bin Laden’s favorite son, Hamza, has been killed. Ever since his emergence in August 2015, Hamza bin Laden was perceived by many as being positioned to take over as al-Qaeda’s next global leader. While the group’s next steps in light of his death are unclear, for now al-Qaeda continues to move toward greater decentralization and “localism,” creating new challenges for governments seeking to confront it.
Assassinations could upset the status quo in Turkey-PKK conflict
Despite the fiery rhetoric, the long-time conflict between Turkey and the PKK has mostly been a controlled fight following tacit rules. But recent events, including Turkey’s increased efforts to assassinate PKK leaders and the targeted killing of a Turkish consulate official in the Iraqi Kurdish capital on July 17, risk overturning the status quo and ushering in a violent new era.
The progressive case for staying in Syria, for now
Ideally, the various sides of the Syrian civil war would seize the opportunity to reach an agreement. However, the Assad regime’s current intransigence and inability counter ISIS necessitate continued U.S. protection of northeastern Syria and efforts to stabilize it until such a deal can be made. This is not an ideal scenario, but the cost of a pullout at this stage will be immense.
Monday Briefing: US-Turkey dispute over Syria comes to a head
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region including the Turkish-U.S. crisis meeting in Ankara on Syria, the resumption of U.S.-Taliban negotiations, Trump’s creation of a new “dovish” line on Iran, a rise in Egypt’s poverty levels, Sudan’s democratic transition, the easing of female guardianship rules in Saudi Arabia, and the end of the ceasefire in Idlib, featuring Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Paul Salem, W. Robert Pearson, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Thomas W. Lippman, and Robert S. Ford.
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region including Kazakhstan’s upcoming “Astana talks” on Syria, Jared Kushner’s planned visit to the Middle East, the shift in US-Pakistan relations, and Abbas’ announcement that the Palestinian Authority will halt all signed agreements with Israel, featuring Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Khaled Elgindy.
Although Syria’s civil war has largely wound down, fighting in Idlib in the country’s northwest has heated up in the last two months. Charles Lister, MEI senior fellow and Director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism Program, and Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff, executive director and co-founder of People Demand Change, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the ongoing conflict and what impact it might have on Syria’s future.
As violence flares up in Daraa, control can be an illusion
Violence has been flaring up at an alarming rate in the southern Syrian province of Daraa, amid dozens of unclaimed attacks by gunmen. Over the last three months, assassinations, checkpoint attacks, fires, and sporadic clashes have wreaked havoc in the area and signaled a potential return of conflict.
A way out for Russia and Turkey from Idlib's spiral of violence
Since the start of the regime’s military campaign in Idlib last month, a group of Free Syrian Army factions that fought alongside Turkish soldiers has gradually entered the region. This development may balance the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham presence and ultimately help to force the group out of the demilitarized zone, ensuring a continued Turkish-Russian consensus on Idlib.
Monday Briefing: Bahrain workshop is little more than a kabuki show
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Guney Yildiz, Nathan Stock, Elizabeth Dent, and Eran Etzion provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including this week’s Bahrain “workshop” on Palestine’s economic development, an opposition victory in Istanbul’s rerun election, the release of a portion of the Trump administration’s Israel-Palestine peace plan, the fracturing of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, and Tuesday’s trilateral meeting between the U.S., Israel, and Russia.
Between Ankara and Damascus: The role of the Turkish state in north Aleppo
It’s been nearly three years since the Turkish incursion into northern Syria in August 2016, but one central question remains unanswered: What is Ankara’s plan for the area now under its control? This paper examines the complex relationship between local governance and service provision in the Euphrates Shield (ES) area of north Aleppo and the Turkish state. Using secondary sources and interviews with Syrian and Turkish activists and officials, this paper establishes that, first and foremost, Turkey has no coherent policy with regards to local governance in ES.
Countering Extremism After the Fall of the ISIS Caliphate
The territorial defeat of ISIS in March 2019 was a significant victory in the fight against terrorism, but the struggle to defeat violent extremism is far from over. Ambassador Edmund Fitton-Brown and Charles Lister join guest host Gerald Feierstein to discuss the latest developments in policy to combat regional terrorist threats.
Monday Briefing: Regime offensive in Syria’s northwest grinds to a halt
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Paul Salem, and Mirette F. Mabrouk provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including military developments in Syria’s northwest, the confirmation of David Schenker as Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, and the approval of amendments to laws regulating Egypt’s judiciary.
