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How China Is Positioning Itself Ahead of the Trump–Xi Summit
  • Commentary
  • How China Is Positioning Itself Ahead of the Trump–Xi Summit

    Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has just concluded a two-day visit (April 9–10) to North Korea, in his first trip to Pyongyang in more than six years. The visit emphasized strengthening high-level exchanges and expanding practical cooperation. With U.S. President Donald Trump set to arrive in Beijing in mid-May for a high-stakes summit with President Xi Jinping, the visit forms part of broader diplomatic activity across multiple fronts.

    The US Has Secured a Cease-Fire in Lebanon. But Its Role Shouldn’t End There
  • Commentary
  • The US Has Secured a Cease-Fire in Lebanon. But Its Role Shouldn’t End There

    Last Thursday, the US announced a 10-day cease-fire “to enable peace negotiations between Israel and Lebanon”. The State Department statement – reportedly agreed to by both governments – marked a significant diplomatic shift. It included an affirmation that “the two countries are not at war,” a commitment to work toward “full recognition of each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” as well as “achieving a permanent agreement that ensures lasting security, stability, and peace.”

    April 20, 2026

    Lebanon Has Another Opportunity of a Lifetime
  • Commentary
  • Lebanon Has Another Opportunity of a Lifetime

    As Lebanese, Israeli, and American teams prepare for their first-ever trilateral leaders summit, it is time to reflect on this opportunity and lessons from the past.

    A Deal on Iran to Save NATO — and Ukraine
  • Commentary
  • A Deal on Iran to Save NATO — and Ukraine

    In the midst of a fragile cease-fire to the US-Israeli war on Iran, European leaders remain reluctant to get involved in another Middle Eastern war and are bristling under threats and insults from the US. As the NATO alliance frays and Russian attacks on Ukraine continue, the moment for Europe to take action has arrived, and is fleeting.

    After Islamabad
  • Commentary
  • After Islamabad

    Amb. Hale discusses three broad policy options for Washington following the failure of the US-Iran talks in Pakistan.

    The Long Tail of Operation Epic Fury: Structural Disorder After the Guns Fall Silent
  • Commentary
  • The Long Tail of Operation Epic Fury: Structural Disorder After the Guns Fall Silent

    The central failure of Operation Epic Fury is strategic. Five weeks in, neither of its declared objectives – regime change as framed by U.S. President Donald Trump, nor the elimination of an existential threat as framed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – is within reach. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Iran’s leadership has reconstituted under Mojtaba Khamenei. The diplomatic track that might have constrained escalation has been shattered.

    The US-Iran War Is Tanking Trump’s Popularity at Home
  • Commentary
  • The US-Iran War Is Tanking Trump’s Popularity at Home

    An operation that Donald Trump said could take Iran out “in one night” has now turned into a regional war that has just entered its sixth week, with the US president appearing increasingly frustrated over the situation.

    Saudi Arabia’s Somalia Gambit
  • Commentary
  • Saudi Arabia’s Somalia Gambit

    Riyadh’s deepening engagement in Somalia reflects a calculated strategy to shape the emerging Red Sea security order, counter UAE and Iranian influence, hedge against U.S. uncertainty, and safeguard alternative energy export routes following the Strait of Hormuz closure.