Putting Trump on paper: What the new US strategy documents say about the Middle East
Trying to capture US President Donald Trump’s proudly unpredictable approach to foreign policy in fixed policy documents is inherently difficult. Surprise, leverage and improvisation are not bugs in Mr Trump’s world view; they are features. Yet the administration has now attempted this exercise twice: with the release of the National Security Strategy last December and the National Defence Strategy this January.
Media and politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are hyping the idea that President Trump’s attempt to gain sovereign control of Greenland has caused unprecedented and irreparable damage to the over 75 year-old Transatlantic Alliance. This “analysis” stems from multiple sources. On both sides of the ocean, there are those who pounce on any deviation from the norm by Trump as evidence the world as we know it is ending. And in Europe, there is the human but unattractive reaction of weak, dependent states against their one powerful ally when it rejects Europe’s preferred script. Much of the US media criticism is summarized by the concept that our other NATO allies can never again “trust” the US.
Iran’s coming reckoning: Regime collapse is likely — democracy is not
The collapse of the Iranian regime in its present form now seems more plausible than its survival as a functioning state. Yet the emergence of a democratic Iran remains far from certain. Between these two outcomes lies a volatile and dangerous middle ground. But much will depend on four factors.
Iran protests seem different. They may lead to real change.
People are not protesting because they suddenly discovered activism. They are protesting because the habits of coping and waiting for conditions to improve have finally stopped working.
Khamenei did this to himself. The US can help — without another Middle East quagmire
Last week, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei effectively greenlit mass killing to save his regime. His message was blunt: blood would be spilled to preserve the system. His security forces followed through, unleashing a level of violence against protesters that even by the Islamic Republic’s grim standards marks a dangerous escalation.
America’s dramatic capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro has set the stage for the conduct of America’s national security strategy in 2026. It has also raised questions.
A year after Assad’s fall, Syria faces a pivotal moment. Washington must lead.
One year after the fall of the Assad regime, Syria is still in very fragile phase of its transition to a new political order. The country faces monumental reconstruction challenges, estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars, well beyond the capabilities of the new Syrian government. Without sustained American leadership and investment, Syria’s transition will be slow, fragile, and dangerously reversible.
American commitment to foundational values must withstand assault by an individual
Two members of the US diplomatic corps who served in Afghanistan and are involved in the Afghan resettlement program call on Americans to uphold principles of justice and fairness when judging the person accused of shooting National Guard members in Washington, DC.
Last week’s visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington, DC marked a pivotal moment in the 80-year relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. History could look back on this moment as a major turning point for both countries, depending on how key strategic issues are addressed in the months to come.
US-Saudi ties are the cornerstone of Trump’s Mideast policy
When Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits the White House to meet with US President Donald Trump on 18 November, there will be no shortage of issues for the two leaders to discuss. Follow-up on the robust bilateral cooperation frameworks in economics and technology, including artificial intelligence — outlined during Trump’s visit to the country in May — is sure to be on the agenda, as are still-unresolved thorny regional security issues, such as Iran, Israel-Palestine, and the continued threats presented by the Houthis in Yemen.
Help Syria move forward — Repeal the Caesar Act sanctions
By repealing the 2019 Caesar Act sanctions, the United States today can take a meaningful, achievable step to reverse the Assads’ damaging legacy, supporting the emergence of a unified and integrated Syria that engenders peace and prosperity both at home and in the wider region.
In September, just days after tens of thousands of Turks had poured into the streets to protest President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s latest crackdown on his political opponents and a fal
