The 12-day conflict with Israel was brief, yet it left a scar. It was a war marked by unprecedented strikes deep inside Iranian territory that jolted the leadership in Tehran into confronting realities they had long sought to avoid.
Ambassador Ryan Crocker reports on his visit to Lebanon and Syria on October 12-17 as part of a small delegation organized by the Washington office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
Iran’s nuclear trajectory is more like a cautious glide along a familiar route than a leap into the unknown, made up of tactical, reversible steps aimed at buying time rather than fundamentally changing the project.
In New York, Iranian officials quietly explored whether a brief delay to the re-imposition of UN sanctions (‘snapback’) could be negotiated on the sidelines of the General Assembly if negotiations addressed their stockpile enriched to 60 percent.
A year after Israel defanged Hezbollah, and in the wake of the annual opening of the UN General Assembly and several developments related to the Middle East, it may be a good time to take stock. In my 38-year career of diplomacy in the Middle East, anytime someone expressed optimism, I would suggest a head examination might be in order. However, today there are a few glimmerings of things that might help the region stabilize.
To use an analogy, if this Gaza ceasefire deal were an aeroplane, it is currently picking up speed on the runway and arrives at the crucial point of immediate takeoff when all hostages held in Gaza are released in exchange for 2,000 Palestinians in Israeli prisons. This moment of “takeoff” will mark the end of a war, but the beginning of what is sure to be a long and bumpy flight. Time will tell if the plane ascends to higher altitudes or comes crashing to the ground.
As we approach the two-year mark of the region-wide conflict unleashed by the attacks of October 7, 2023, it is important to take stock of how this poly-crisis has transformed the Middle East—and how it might evolve in the months ahead.
On the table is a proposal for a complete Israeli hostage release within three days of Israel publicly accepting the agreement, followed by a release of Palestinian prisoners. Humanitarian aid would start to flood back into Gaza, and Israel would withdraw in stages to a security perimeter.
Internal fissures mean that the Taliban’s rejection of the issue is far from settled.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is deeply saddened by the passing of George Hoguet, a distinguished former member of our Board of Governors and longtime supporter of our mission
The spotlight for US policy in the Middle East will shift from the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) meeting in New York to Washington, DC, where US President Donald Trump will meet with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday for the fourth time in eight months.
At the end of August, the United Nations Security Council renewed the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) for the final time. For nearly half a century, blue helmets have been a fixture in South Lebanon, an extraordinary tenure for a country only eight decades old. In many ways, UNIFIL’s longstanding presence served as a reminder of Lebanon’s struggle to assert its sovereignty, which has had destabilizing consequences for international peace and security.
Now, that dysfunction may be nearing resolution.
This month brings world leaders together to mark the annual opening of the United Nations General Assembly. Their formal speeches in front of the assembly vary in interest, as many contain more pious platitudes than meaty information. The real work of interest often happens behind-the-scenes, as world leaders meet bilaterally or in small groups to discuss the issues of the day away from the glare of media or the pressure for summits to deliver results. The occasion also provides opportunities for the unexpected to happen. The Middle East will figure largely in these talks. Here are some po
For years, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader and ultimate powerbroker, has been insisting to his people that there would be no war with the United States or Israel. That claim was shattered when more than 1,000 Iranians were killed in June’s 12-day war. Now he warns against the country sliding into a “state of ‘no war, no peace.’” The diagnosis isn’t wrong—but refusing to confront hard choices is vintage Khamenei.
When Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was toppled late last year, it looked like a golden opportunity for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. For more than a decade, the war next door had burdened Ankara with problems that it could not fix: millions of Syrian refugees straining domestic politics, U.S.-backed Kurdish militias entrenching along Turkey’s border, and a battlefield dominated by Russian and Iranian influence that left Ankara exposed to Moscow’s and Tehran’s whims.
There was a real possibility earlier this summer that the United States was going to veto the renewal of the UNIFIL mandate in August. Ultimately, a wiser course prevailed, when the UN Security Council extended UNIFIL’s mandate “for a final time” last week until the end of 2026. This step is a positive one for everyone concerned except Hezbollah and its foreign patron, Iran.