The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has mostly been viewed through the lens of global oil and gas supply disruptions, but the geopolitical risks are testing multiple economic sectors beyond hydrocarbons. From fertilizer supply chains stretching to Africa, and nascent trade corridors connecting South Asia with Europe via the Middle East, to megawatt data centers being constructed in the Gulf — the Iran war is scrambling both long-established and aspirational economic projects for stakeholders around the world. While for the region itself, a protracted conflict and uncertainty could cast doubt on the Gulf’s economic security and weaken investor confidence. Is the blockade of the strait already reshaping the global economy and challenging Gulf state economic models?
This briefing featured Afshin Molavi, Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), where he focuses on emerging markets, the geopolitics of energy, and the intersection of Middle Eastern states and the global economy. He was joined by Mohammed Soliman, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), whose work explores the nexus of technology, geopolitics, and business in the Middle East and other emerging markets.
Our experts examined the structural economic and trade vulnerabilities exposed by the closure of the strait, the potential impact of a prolonged conflict on the Gulf’s non-oil development plans, including its strategic tech ambitions, how the global economy has begun to respond, as well as realistic transit alternatives to this vulnerable maritime chokepoint.
