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Crispin Smith is an associate at a Washington-based national security law group. His research focuses on Iraqi security, human rights, and law of armed conflict issues. He is also a regular contributor to the Militia Spotlight program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he writes on Iraqi militia information operations and lawfare. He holds a BA in Assyriology and Arabic from the University of Oxford and a J.D. for Harvard Law School.
The U.S. killing of Qassem Soleimani, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force commander, along with the deputy chair of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, altered the political balance in Iraq. But the killings took place against a wider backdrop of political unrest and protests that forced the resignation of Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi at the end of 2019. With Iraq potentially headed for early elections,the country is set for significant changes as political actors vie for a seat at the table. U.S. and coalition forces in the region will inevitably be affected, and the coming months will determine the future of both Iranian proxies and the coalition presence in Iraq.
The most surprising thing about the Kurdistan Region of Iraq’s (K.R.I.’s) independence referendum was that it took place at all. Leading up to the vote the international community stepped up its opposition. Baghdad also increased pressure on Erbil with a decision by the Iraqi Supreme Court declaring the referendum illegal, and issuing a series of delegitimizing statements from top Iraqi officials. But K.R.I.
What will a Future Kurdish State Do with its Own Minorities?
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (K.R.I.) is expected to hold a referendum on independence from Iraq on September 25. While the disputes between Kurds and Iraq’s Sunni and Shiite Arab populations will be a key factor in any independence process, the realities of building a Kurdish state in northern Iraq will be made more complex by the enormous ethnic and religious diversity in the region.
Iraqi Kurdistan’s democratic future and stability is at risk, and one party and family is especially closely linked to the crisis. In recent years, the Barzani family and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (K.D.P.) have consolidated power while displaying indifference to rule of law when facing critics or uncooperative minorities. This creeping autocracy should urgently concern those hoping to see a stable new democracy in a troubled region. On September 25, the Kurdish region is due to hold its independence referendum.
