Monday Briefing: Still at square one of a long and dangerous conflict
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
Democracy and Human Rights, Governance, Reform, and State Capacity, Great Powers in the Middle East, US Policy in the Middle East, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Paul Salem is a former Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI). He previously served as MEI’s president and CEO and as vice president for international engagement. His research focuses on political change, democracy and governance, social and economic policy, as well as regional and international relations in the Middle East.
Prior to joining MEI, Dr. Salem was the founding director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, Lebanon (2006–2013). From 1999 to 2006, he served as director of the Fares Foundation, and earlier founded and led the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (1989–1999), Lebanon’s premier public policy think tank.
Dr. Salem is the author and editor of several books and reports, including Escaping the Conflict Trap: Toward Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East (Middle East Institute, 2019), Winning the Battle, Losing the War: Addressing the Conditions that Fuel Armed Non-State Actors (Middle East Institute, 2019), and From Chaos to Cooperation: Toward Regional Order in the Middle East (Middle East Institute, 2017). His earlier works include Broken Orders: The Causes and Consequences of the Arab Uprisings (in Arabic, 2013), Bitter Legacy: Ideology and Politics in the Arab World (1994), and Conflict Resolution in the Arab World (ed., 1997).
Dr. Salem is also a musician and composer of Arabic-Brazilian jazz, with his music available on iTunes. He writes regularly on his Substack blog, Thinking Middle East.
He holds a BA, MA, and PhD from Harvard University.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
Nine days after the Hamas attack inside Israel, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is massing troops for a large-scale ground incursion into Gaza. For now, the outlines and endgame of Israel’s military action are not entirely clear. Meanwhile, escalation is rising along the Israel-Lebanon border and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is crisscrossing the Middle East communicating both deterrence and diplomacy.
تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
المحتويات:
تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.
The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is looking increasingly likely, even if it does not take place in the immediate future. For Israel, normalizing relations with as many Arab states as possible — especially if it does not have to give up much in exchange — has always been a strategic goal. For the new Saudi Arabia, those ambitious goals strongly suggest opening up to the Israeli economy.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
From the past century until today, the U.S. has cast a long shadow in the Middle East region and relations have gone through many highs and lows. It is important to be aware of this trajectory to better understand the relationship today; and perhaps there are lessons to inform the future of the relationship in the coming century.
Gender parity in the Middle East is still many decades away, but it will largely determine the future of economic, social, cultural, and political development in the region.
It is too early to tell whether the Wagner “uprising” is a one-off or foreshadows further cracks and the eventual collapse of Putin’s presidency, but the latter outcome would have lasting consequences in the MENA region.
The Biden administration has been trying to diplomatically reengage with China, although so far with little response from Beijing. Any broad reengagement would necessarily include reengagement in the Middle East and North Africa. Both sides have a long list of common interests in the Middle East; the areas where their interests diverge relate mainly to suspicions of the other side’s long-term strategy and global ambitions. How can Washington and Beijing build on common interests in the region while addressing their long-term concerns, reducing some of them and accommodating robust competition or even sharp adversarial attitudes in other areas?
The Middle East is experiencing a remarkable spate of diplomacy, de-escalation, and normalization. This is generally a positive development, as the region needs to take charge of its own destiny. But normalization and de-escalation does not always lead to meaningful conflict resolution; indeed, sometimes the reverse is true. What needs to be done so that this positive momentum can be the first phase of a more meaningful set of engagements to build a more lasting regional peace and integration?