The Americans Are Gone. Will Iraq’s Militias Disarm?
On September 30, the US completed its military withdrawal from Iraq, ending a 12-year-long mission to combat ISIS that began in 2014. The date was also meant to be the deadline for disarming the largely Iranian-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), but Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has now pushed that cutoff back to June 30, 2027. MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Amb. (ret.) Robert S. Ford joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss what the US military withdrawal means for Iraqi security and the nature of the bilateral relationship going forward. They also speak about what it will take for Baghdad to bring the PMF militias to heel, and how Iraq may navigate the post-Iran war era.
Jordan’s Economy Weathers Iran War’s Shocks and Finds New Opportunities
In the summer of 2003, King Abdullah II told Bloomberg Jordan sits “between Iraq and a hard place,” a play on words designed to describe the kingdom’s challenging environment to an American audience amid the US-led Iraq war to the east and the lingering Palestinian-Israeli conflict to the west. Jordan is grappling with a much “harder place” today.
Proponents of the war with Iran have taken recent increases in crude-oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz as proof that the US strategy is finally working. President Trump is so confident in this that he recently rejected a seven-day plan, set forward by Iran’s foreign ministry, to end the war and open the strait. The United States is “winning tremendously,” Trump boasted.
IRGC Helps "Latin Americans" Establish Basij Force
In the latest indication of Iran’s efforts to expand its ideological and political influence in parts of Latin America, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has revealed that it provides training to Latin Americans in how to create and utilize the Iranian model of paramilitary Basij Force.
New Findings Point to Iran Sending Weapons to Yemen
It is not a secret that Iran plays a role in the Yemeni conflict. But a new report provides yet another piece of evidence released to the public about the Iranian government’s arms aid to the Houthi rebels that fight against the Yemeni government backed by Saudi Arabia and its allies. The Australian government has released photographs that show light anti-armor weapons seized near the Yemeni coast were manufactured in Iran.
Kayhan, a leading newspaper that represents the most hardline of voices inside the Iranian regime, has been raising doubts about Turkish intentions in the Syrian conflict. The reservations the paper expressed come shortly after the late December 2016 Turkish-Russian-Iranian ceasefire deal aimed to kick-start the political process to find a solution to the six-year Syrian war.
The representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader on Hajj [pilgrimage] affairs has announced that Tehran will shortly dispatch a delegation to Saudi Arabia. This latest development has come about following Iran’s decision not send any pilgrims to Saudi Arabia in 2016. Riyadh had earlier sent an invitation to Iran for talks to be held to resolve differences that exist in this context.
In a meeting with a high-level delegation visiting Tehran on January 11, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani called terrorism a common enemy of Afghanistan and Iran and pledged his country’s all-out support to Afghanistan’s stability.
The death of Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani on January 8 marks a major turning point for Iran. For nearly 40 years, his undisguised hunger for power combined with his knack for deal making had made him the most proven kingmaker of the Islamic Republic.
Saudi Interest in the Red Sea Islands of Tiran and Sanafir Grows as Its Security Interests Expand
Notwithstanding Egypt’s political and judicial contretemps, the Egyptian parliament is expected to vote soon in favor of the return of Tiran and Sanafir islands to Saudi Arabia. The decision, after months of controversy in Egypt, will fulfill the April 2016 agreement reached between Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al Sisi and Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud that formally acknowledged Saudi sovereignty over the two small islands and provided for their return to Riyadh’s control.
During the January 10 mass rallies of the funeral of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, crowds in Tehran repeatedly chanted “Death to Russia” and “Russian Embassy is the den of spies.” Those chanting are supporters of the popular political opposition, which continue to be repressed by the security services.
Iran’s Quds Force Commander Qassem Suleimani attended the funeral of Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and praised the former Iranian president’s anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiments and positions.
The generals of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) have been busy mourning the death of Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. That is at least the public show they have put on. Since his death, several top IRGC commanders have hailed Rafsanjani as a pillar of the Islamic Republic and a hero in the so-called struggle against Western powers. Such public show of grief, however, is hardly convincing. In recent weeks prior to his death, IRGC-run media and personalities had unleashed a barrage of new attacks against Rafsanjani.
Iran Continues Efforts to Subvert Saudi Arabia from within
In fresh evidence that the government of Iran continues its efforts to undermine Saudi stability and security from within, a Saudi court has convicted a Saudi businessman of plotting with the government of Iran to instigate sectarian strife and threaten Saudi social stability, according to a report in al-Sharq al-Awsat.
Iran’s Oil Ministry has announced that two new energy contracts have been signed with Iraq. In particular, Tehran is looking to export natural gas to Iraq. Energy is only part of the equation.
Rafsanjani’s Funeral Turns into Anti-Regime Protest
Today’s funeral for an influential Iranian leader turned into a protest rally against the regime. It was reminiscent of the demonstrations by the so-called Green Movement that rocked Iran after the country’s controversial 2009 presidential elections.
Iran Steps up Efforts to Expand Its Influence in Lebanon
On January 6, a high-level Iranian parliamentary delegation visited Beirut and pledged to provide military aid to the Lebanese army. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Iranian Parliament’s Committee for Foreign Policy and National Security, said the Islamic Republic was “determined to arm Lebanon’s army,” but added that the implementation of the plan was contingent upon Beirut’s approval.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
