This article is part of a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran. The intent of the collection is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.
Turkey: Ankara’s Nuclear Ambitions in the Post-Iran War Environment
In February 2026, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested that shifting international dynamics could push Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons. That rhetoric, combined with Turkey’s civilian nuclear energy and research programs and its indigenous surface-to-surface missile development projects, has fueled concerns that these capabilities could eventually form the backbone of a Turkish nuclear weapons program.
When the US and Israel launched military action against Iran on February 28, 2026, it set in motion a chain of events that saw violence spread across the Middle East. Yet as the region found itself engulfed in conflict, Syria has experienced its most peaceful months in 15 years, and the government in Damascus appears determined to stay its course toward recovery.
On February 5, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, said that “certain countries are worried about the weakening of terrorist groups in Syria.” Shamkhani made the remarks after his meeting with visiting Russian president’s Special Envoy for Syrian Affairs, Alexander Lavrentiev. Shamkhani and Lavrentiev praised the latest Syrian peace talks held in Astana and which were brokered by Russia, Turkey and Iran.
Iran Paper Warns Israel about Hezbollah’s Missile Power
Kayhan newspaper, arguably Iran’s most reactionary paper whose editor-in-chief is appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ran an extensive background of what it claimed to be Israeli fears about Lebanese Hezbollah’s missile arsenal. “Zionists [Israel] are deeply worried about Hezbollah’s missile strength,” the paper said.
Monday Briefing: Trump Scores a Ruinous ‘Own Goal’ in the Middle East
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Robert S. Ford, and W. Robert Pearson provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Trump administration’s controversial travel ban, the Syrian regime’s dismissal of calls for a cease-fire, and the upcoming meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Hezbollah Deputy Leader Expresses Gratitude to Iran and Syria
The deputy head of Lebanon’s Hezbollah organization, Naim Qassem, has again come out to remind a skeptical Lebanese population about reasons why the militant group has intervened in the Syrian conflict. According to Qassem, Hezbollah’s approach is “non-interference in the affairs of other countries” but
Top Iran Envoy Meets Khamenei’s Special Representative in Syria
On January 27, Iranian media reported that top Iranian envoy, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, who visited Damascus this week, also met the Iranian supreme leader’s special representative to Syria, Abolfazl Tabatabai Ashkezari. Ashkezari was appointed by the personal decree of Khamenei in March 2016. He has been living in Syria since.
The January 26 meeting between the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hossein Amir Abdollahian is another important sign that Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has at best very little influence over Iran’s Syria’s policy. The official title of Amir Abdollahian is “Director General of International Affairs” at the Iranian parliament, the Majlis. However, this generic title given to Abdullahian is in no way a true reflection of his power in Tehran and the critical base of support he enjoys.
Six Challenges to U.S.-Israel Relations under Trump
In the early 2000s, the Bush administration’s global ratings were at historic lows. There was only one allied country in which public opinion was favorable to U.S. policies—Israel. Like its citizenry, the Israeli government was strongly supportive of “the freedom agenda,” “the global war on terror,” and the need to eradicate “the axis of evil.” A decade later, President Donald Trump’s inauguration created a very similar effect, winning overwhelming governmental support and backed by a majority of Israelis.
Fars News, an outlet that is linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), reported that ethnic Chechen forces from Russia are now acting as police units in the Syrian city of Aleppo. The outlet reported that Chechens had also from December 2016 been deployed “to serve in the military police to protect Russia’s Khmeimim air base in Syria.”
Tehran’s fears of losing out influence during the ongoing peace talks on Syria in Astana were evident even in the makeup of the Iranian delegation. According to Iranian sources, Tehran had been compelled to dispatch a top military figure with extensive experience in Syria in order not to be eclipsed by Russian and Turkish militaries.
Iran, Russia and Turkey agreed earlier today to establish a trilateral mechanism to enforce the fragile cessation of hostilities in Syria. After a two-day meeting in Kazakhstan sponsored by Moscow, the trio issued a joint statement that called for “a political process based on the implementation of the UN Security Council resolution 2254” to end the Syrian civil war.
Monday Briefing: Middle East Reactions to Trump's Inauguration
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Gerald Feierstein, and Charles Lister provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including U.S.-Middle East relations in the new Trump administration, the view of Trump’s inauguration from Tehran, the Gulf’s ‘wait and see’ approach to the new administration, and Russia’s public position on Syria talks at the outset of talks in Astana.
Iran will build a mobile phone network in Syria under an agreement signed by the two countries’ ministries of information and communications technology, Iranian media reports.
