المشرق العربي

The South Caucasus region needs a clear push from the West to ensure its long-term stability and achieve a pro-Western orientation. But no lasting solutions in this space will be possible until there is an end to the war in Ukraine that fulfills the interests of both Ukraine itself and the broader West. The United States and the European Union, in cooperation with other key players — foremost Turkey — must showcase greater determination, flexibility, and coordination when it comes to their policies toward the region.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

A defense treaty in return for Saudi normalization is illusive, but Biden can still seal a historic deal.

In the wake of Israel’s deadly assault on the Jenin refugee camp, the largest military operation in the West Bank in nearly two decades, Israeli military officials have been quick to declare victory. But contrary to such bluster, the attack produced no real winners and only losers.

From the past century until today, the U.S. has cast a long shadow in the Middle East region and relations have gone through many highs and lows. It is important to be aware of this trajectory to better understand the relationship today; and perhaps there are lessons to inform the future of the relationship in the coming century.

Since the early years of the Syrian conflict, the Assad regime has systematically diverted local resources dedicated for reconstruction purposes to rehabilitate facilities in areas and sectors that benefit it and its inner circle, as well as placed the burden of rehabilitating properties onto Syrians themselves. To finance this policy, the regime has exploited four key resources, including imposing multiple reconstruction taxes, diverting U.N. and INGO early recovery and rehabilitation projects, capitalizing on local-led crowdfunding campaigns, and forcing Syrians to bear the cost of repairing their own damaged properties.

For the sake of safeguarding transatlantic — and thus also American — security interests in the South Caucasus, it is becoming increasingly imperative that the United States better anchor itself economically, politically, and militarily in the eastern Black Sea region, especially strategically placed Georgia.

India and Israel have embarked on a mission to enhance their bilateral strategic cyber partnership. Private-sector collaboration and investment have laid the foundation for this partnership, which has now expanded to government-level agreements and frameworks.

تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.

American and European eyes are set on Riyadh. Both the Biden administration and the European External Action Service are currently trying to advance policy moves that involve Saudi Arabia and that – if successful – will reshape the Middle East. Alas, when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian issue, these European and American efforts are quite different, and even seem contradictory.

Gender parity in the Middle East is still many decades away, but it will largely determine the future of economic, social, cultural, and political development in the region.

Jean-Yves Le Drian, French President Emmanuel Macron’s envoy to Lebanon, made a preliminary diplomatic visit to Beirut last week. Le Drian’s appointment marks a potential though uncertain opening to consolidate international support for Lebanon to facilitate an end to the political gridlock and leadership vacuum. A short but timely boost in robust diplomacy on the part of Washington, strengthened by clear coordination with Paris and regional partners, can play a decisive role in preventing the unraveling of another failed authoritarian state that could further destabilize the region and force even more costly engagement in the future.

Another United Nations Security Council (UNSC) vote on continuing the resolution that allows Syria’s cross-border aid delivery is due in July, but the regime’s use of “consent” to allow an extra two crossings from Turkey into the area could be used to undermine the resolution’s necessity, which would risk destabilizing the conflict along with it. Twelve years of hard-won lessons show that until there is a broader political agreement with clear guardrails and guarantees, only a UNSC resolution that permits unimpeded humanitarian access to northwest Syria can secure the critical and consistent operational space required to meet the region’s growing needs as articulated by the NGOs working in the area. 

It is too early to tell whether the Wagner “uprising” is a one-off or foreshadows further cracks and the eventual collapse of Putin’s presidency, but the latter outcome would have lasting consequences in the MENA region.