تركيا

On Sunday, Turks will decide their political fate for decades to come. If President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wins, he will reach a new pinnacle in a remarkable career to solidify his unchallengeable rule in Turkey, and cement his role to rival that of Ataturk in modern Turkish history. He will still not be fully satisfied with a victory, if it comes. He will go on to use the win as a platform for securing an historic legacy to guide the Turkish state for the years ahead.

On April 16, Turkish citizens will head to the polls to vote in a landmark referendum on the proposed constitutional changes that, if passed, will transition the country from a parliamentary system to a presidential one. This referendum is the pinnacle of an election cycle that has been in motion since 2014, and has left the country increasingly polarized.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Randa Slim, Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the need for an overarching strategy in Syria following U.S. airstrikes, Secretary of State Tillerson’s upcoming visit to Moscow, the likely aftermath of U.S. airstrikes in Syria, Turkey’s growing frustration with U.S. strategy in Syria, and the rise of a hardliner challenger to Rouhani in the upcoming Iranian presidential election.

U.S. cruise missile strikes on al-Shayrat airfield northeast of Damascus early April 7 have changed the dynamics of the Syrian war. The strikes were intended as a clear and contained message to the Assad regime that the barbarism of the Syrian government has its limits. It was not a declaration of war by the United States, but it served to delineate last week’s message from the Americans that regime change in Damascus was “not practical”, a message that may have given Bashar al-Assad the impression that he now had a free hand in the war.

April 6, 2017 – A short overview of what’s at stake in Turkey’s April 16 referendum on constitutional reforms.

This piece was co-authored by Michael Rubin, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Read the full article on Lawfare.

Read the full article at The Cipher Brief

Since the failed coup attempt of July 15, 2016, Turkey has been looking east for new partners to decrease Ankara’s dependence on traditional Western allies. The election of Donald Trump has contributed to the further estrangement of Turkey’s relationship with its traditional NATO allies, leaving Ankara less comfortable remaining so reliant on Washington for regional security matters.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts W. Robert Pearson, Gerald Feierstein, Yousef Munayyer, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the simmering diplomatic feud between Turkey and the Netherlands, the Chinese offer to act as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the congressional debate whether to supply aid to the Palestinian Authority, and the growing French business footprint in Iran.

Note: The latest issue of MEI’s Monday Briefing e-mail incorrectly linked to this page. If you’re looking for the Monday Briefing for March 6, click here.

In the latest episode of escalating diplomatic tension between Tehran and Ankara, Iran’s foreign minister today blasted latest statements by Turkish officials accusing Iran of destabilizing the Middle East and fueling sectarian divide in the region.

Ali Akbar Velayati, the top foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has dismissed Turkish charges that Tehran is engaging in dangerous sectarian policies in the Middle East.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s official trip to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar has prompted anxiety in Tehran. Erdogan arrived in Riyadh on Monday night after a visit to Bahrain, and he is scheduled to go to Qatar next.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Eran Etzion, Alex Vatanka, Gerald Feierstein, Randa Slim, W. Robert Pearson, and Marvin G.