في 31 أكتوبر، أصدر مجلس الأمن التابع للأمم المتحدة قرارًا يركز على خطة الحكم الذاتي المغربية كأساس لحل نزاع الصحراء الغربية. يشير تصويت الأمم المتحدة وتعليقات المبعوث الخاص للولايات المتحدة ستيف ويتكوف إلى أن الرئيس دونالد ترامب يريد تحقيق انتصار آخر في مجال السياسة الخارجية تحت عنوان "صنع السلام". لكن الفرصة المتاحة لإدارة ترامب أكبر من مجرد حل قضية الصحراء الغربية. فهي يمكن أن تفتح الباب أمام مصالحة بين المغرب والجزائر من شأنها أن تدمج اقتصاد المغرب العربي الأوسع نطاقاً، وتقلل الهجرة إلى أوروبا، وتوسع التعاون في مجال الطاقة، وتمكن من تنسيق أقوى لمكافحة الإرهاب في منطقة الساحل.
السيادة أولاً: إعادة تشكيل التعاون الدولي في شمال أفريقيا
تولي دول شمال أفريقيا ودول العالم بشكل متزايد الأولوية لتعريف صارم للسيادة وتميل نحو الدبلوماسية التبادلية. إن فهم الدوافع الكامنة وراء نهج "السيادة أولاً" الذي تتبعه شمال أفريقيا يمكن أن يساعد الولايات المتحدة وأوروبا على بناء علاقات متبادلة المنفعة ودائمة مع المنطقة في ظل هذا الواقع الجديد.
Algerians’ clandestine exodus: A complex national tragedy
The growing wave of Algerians illegally trying to reach Southern European shores while risking death is by no means a new development. But these perilous trans-maritime voyages are also a reminder of the bleak political and economic situation in which Algeria finds itself three years after the 2019 protest movement sparked hope for fundamental change.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent visit to Algeria brought talks of cooperation and reconciliation to the fore in an otherwise fraught relationship. France and Algeria share a long and painful history, including 132 years of colonial occupation and an eight year war of devastation. In an effort to unpack the motivations and context behind Macron’s visit, MEI Senior Fellow and Director of the North Africa and the Sahel Program Intissar Fakir speaks with Francis Ghilès, Senior Research Fellow with the Barcelona Center for International Affairs.
The war in Ukraine: A test for Algiers’ non-alignment doctrine
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in late February could have unprecedented consequences for North Africa. Algeria will be swept up in the resulting shifts, forcing the country’s civilian and military leadership to make difficult international calculations.
أُخُوة يخنقها العداء: التنافس الجزائري المغربي وتحديات الاندماج المغاربي
صَدم وزير الخارجية الجزائري، رمطان لعمامرة، العالم بإعلانه القطع المفاجئ للعلاقات الدبلوماسية بين الجزائر والرباط، بعد ثلاثة عقود من تجاور بارد بين القوتين المغاربيتين. واتهم لعمامرة، في بيان رسمي، تلاه أواخر أغسطس/آب 2021، المغرب بالتخلي عن التزامه بتنظيم استفتاء لتقرير المصير في الصحراء الغربية، من بين ما أسماه “أعمال عدائية ومشينة” أخرى ارتكبها ضد الجزائر.
Brothers at arm’s length: Moroccan-Algerian rivalry and the challenge of Maghrebi integration
In late August 2021, Algerian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ramtane Lamamra, shocked the world by abruptly severing diplomatic relations with Rabat after three decades of a cold modus vivendi between the two Maghrebi powerhouses. In an official statement, Lamamra accused Morocco of abandoning its commitment to organizing a referendum for self-determination in Western Sahara, among other “hostile and despicable acts” against Algeria.
Higher oil prices are giving Algeria’s regime breathing room
As Russia’s war on Ukraine keeps oil and gas prices high, Algeria’s regime is replenishing its financial reserves after years of depleting them. This renewed budgetary space will make it easier for the government to deal with any hint of popular discontent. But rather than going back to splurging on new salary increases or other forms of accelerated rent distribution as it has done in the past, the regime seems to be adopting a more cautious approach this time around.
Understanding Algerian unemployment policies beyond rent redistribution
In February 2022, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced a new unemployment benefit for first-time jobseekers aged 19 to 40. On March 28, 580,000 young Algerians received their first $90 monthly payment. Though many young people have rushed to the offices of the National Employment Agency (ANEM) to register for the new benefit, potential problems have already cropped up.
War in Ukraine and drought at home: A perfect storm in the Maghreb
This year was already expected to pose challenges for Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. Inflationary pressures have been driving up the price of goods since the fourth quarter of 2021. Persistent unemployment, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, aggravated social discontent. Now, as winter turns to spring, socio-economic stability in the Maghreb is being imperiled by the conflict in Ukraine and insufficient rainfall at home.
The "Mediterranean Worlds Forum”: France’s continued pursuit of leadership in the Mediterranean
On Feb. 7 and 8, France hosted the “Mediterranean Worlds Forum” in Marseille, following on the heels of the 2019 “Summit of the Two Shores, Mediterranean Forum.” These meetings have the stated goal of “giving new momentum” to relations in the western Mediterranean and illustrate Paris’s push to renew its leadership role in the region.
Given capacity constraints, Algeria is no quick fix for Europe’s Russian gas concerns
While Europe might be ready for more Algerian gas as it looks to diversify its suppliers, Algeria’s current production capacity limits its ability to substantially increase export volumes to Europe. As of now, any meaningful increases in Algerian production will require years of exploration and development and more crucially, further energy industry reforms to attract new investment.
