Research & Commentary Results

Some analysts try to explain Trump’s Middle East rhetoric as an effort to provoke a new type of conversation and to break the mold. But one unconventional source that helps explain Trump’s tactics is pro wrestling, in which the actions are understood to be illusory but still prompt a response from all sides.

جنازة نصر الله هي واحدة من أكثر اللحظات أهمية بالنسبة للبنان والمشرق العربي. هل سيشكل استعراض القوة هذا بداية حملة إيران لتخريب النظام الأمريكي الناشئ؟ يعتمد الكثير على ما ستفعله الولايات المتحدة بعد ذلك. يقدم فراس مكساد من معهد الشرق الأوسط (MEI) رؤى وتوصيات.

With the signing of a presidential memorandum on Feb. 4, the administration of Donald Trump has returned to a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, but circumstances have changed drastically since the policy of intensified sanctions was originally crafted during his first term. Regional geopolitics will present the White House with a new set of variables, while changes in the petroleum markets will affect how the administration approaches sanctions on oil exports.

This massive distraction of the Trump administration’s Gaza non-plan and the even more serious move of dismantling America’s ability to shape and influence events abroad together carry three risks for the Middle East.

Observing the unfolding of President Donald Trump’s second term from the Middle East is as confusing and disorienting as it must be from the United States. In Palestine, Egypt, and Jordan, urgent concern is focused on Trump’s surprise plan to take over the Gaza Strip, displace its population, and rebuild it as the “Riviera of the Middle East.” In Israel, the right wing is extremely pleased with Trump’s gift, but they don’t know what he has planned for the West Bank. In the Arab Gulf monarchies, leaders are generally happy to be dealing with Trump again but are alarmed by the recklessness of his Gaza plan and concerned about the potential impact his energy and tariff policies could have on their economies.

The Trump administration’s Middle East approach in its first three weeks back in office was filled with plenty of sound and fury. It’s still too soon to tell whether all of the noise signifies much of anything for the region, yet there are few promising signs of a smooth ride ahead.

President Trump’s Gaza ploy is really aimed at the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia most directly, to rebuild Gaza and cozy up to Israel.

Despite a few hiccups, the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas has achieved its initial milestones. Much will depend on the upcoming negotiations regarding the next phases of the agreement. Yet for now, the fundamental questions of who will govern Gaza, who will provide security, and who will deliver the funding to rebuild it have yet to be definitively resolved.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a potentially disastrous showdown within the next month that could shake his hold on power, unless he manages to deter the strongly held positions of the foreign and domestic politicians and political forces on which he is dependent.

في ولايته الثانية، يواجه الرئيس دونالد ترامب منطقة الشرق الأوسط التي تشهد اضطرابات متعددة الأوجه وجمهورية إيران الإسلامية التي تمر حالياً بأضعف وأكثر مواقفها عزلة منذ تأسيس النظام في عام 1979. ومع ذلك، وبعيداً عن الخضوع الدائم، تواصل طهران الاقتراب من بناء سلاح نووي، وتحاول الحفاظ على شبكتها الإقليمية من الوكلاء والحلفاء غير الحكوميين. يواجه ترامب الآن خيارًا استراتيجيًا مهمًا بشأن سياسة إيران. يحلل هذا التقرير ثلاث ديناميات شاملة: التغيرات الاستراتيجية في الشرق الأوسط في 2023-2024؛ وتأثير هذه التغيرات على إيران وشبكة محور المقاومة؛ وموقف إيران الحالي ومكانتها في الداخل وفي المنطقة. ويختتم التقرير بسلسلة من التوصيات الاستراتيجية للإدارة الجديدة.

The cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas announced on Jan. 15 took more than a year to reach and almost certainly will take much longer to fully realize than the four-plus months outlined in the framework. Like many things in life, this agreement was hard to build and will be easy to tear down. Indeed, the deal has already run into issues even before it is set to take effect on Jan. 19, with a dispute within the Israeli cabinet delaying a vote on it to Jan. 17. 

A very different Middle East will greet President-elect Trump this month compared to the region he experienced during his first term. However, there are opportunities to advance American interests for a more stable and less conflictual Middle East, which might not require the kind of intense US commitment we have seen over the last quarter-century.

More than a year has passed since the horrific attacks that took the lives of 1,200 innocent Israeli citizens on Oct. 7, 2023, a devasting day that led to many more devasting days in Gaza, where tens of thousands of innocent people have died and countless more have experienced suffering on an industrial scale. All hopes that the war might soon wind down are fading, as the conflict has expanded regionally and internationally and attention has been diverted to a hot cease-fire in Lebanon and the dramatic events unfolding in Syria. Saudi Arabia can help support a credible path to peace.

The current Israeli government’s extremism encompasses two entwined trends in Israeli political culture. The first is the rise and mainstreaming of the ideological settler movement and far-right nationalism. The second is Israel’s growing authoritarian tendencies, manifested in systematic efforts to reshape state institutions. As democratic institutions are weakened, the government faces fewer barriers to implementing its expansionist territorial agenda, while the mainstreaming of far-right ideology helps justify the erosion of democratic safeguards. Yet the vast majority of Israelis fail to recognize the connection between these trends, as do most policymakers in the United States.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.