Research & Commentary Results

The current complex situation in the global oil market seriously tests the abilities of OPEC+ to play the role of a regulator, forcing Saudi Arabia to assume the main burden of responsibility for keeping oil prices from declining further and for shoring up the cartel ranks.

After issuing positive statements around greenfield blue hydrogen projects in late 2022, the company, Bloomberg now reports, may be migrating away from the hydrogen scheme and toward LNG exports. Both would require significant capital investment. Assuming the company decides to pursue an LNG export project, it will face many potentially value-erosive challenges and risks that must be overcome before achieving economic success.

It is too early to tell whether the Wagner “uprising” is a one-off or foreshadows further cracks and the eventual collapse of Putin’s presidency, but the latter outcome would have lasting consequences in the MENA region.

Despite a substantial growth in trade between China and Iran, especially when it comes to Chinese exports to Iran and purchases of Iranian oil, the same cannot be said for Beijing’s investments in the Iranian economy, which have remained anemic, particularly in the critical energy sector.

For the second time in three months, Egyptians have expressed their dissatisfaction — albeit largely symbolically and on a limited scale — with the government’s tight control over nearly all public freedoms. The Engineers’ Syndicate’s vote against a government-selected candidate to head the organization may be pointing to growing public dissatisfaction with the authorities’ policies, both on the economic and political fronts.

Several Gulf states have introduced renewable energy certificates into their low-carbon energy eco-system. What are RECs and how can they help companies navigate the energy transition?

Turkey’s new economic team may take a more hawkish tone when it comes to tackling inflation and preserving financial stability through fiscal and monetary measures. However, investors and policymakers should not be naïve, as this approach will only be temporary or partial, aimed at winning the upcoming local elections.

The prevailing political spirit in the Gulf region is presently one of de-escalation. In the case of the UAE and Iran, a number of existing connections could help hasten the process of de-escalation and enable it to happen faster than anywhere else in the region.The outcome should be of interest not only to the UAE and Iran but also to the U.S. given the latter’s long-standing efforts to shape Iranian policies.

While calls for the immediate return of Syrian refugees have increased at the regional and international levels, it is imperative to closely examine the direct link between the regime’s policy of property confiscation and the possibility of refugee returns. Property confiscation does not only impact the direct owners and their immediate families’ livelihoods but also hinders the ability of thousands of displaced Syrians to return while leading those who still reside under regime rule to consider migration.

Last week’s collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River in Ukraine is one of the largest environmental disaster the Black Sea region and Europe has faced in decades. Its far-reaching environmental, economic, and humanitarian consequences will affect not just Ukraine and the Black Sea region, but also the Middle East and Africa.

Even though Russia and China’s strategic partnership has strengthened in recent years, the leaderships of both countries infrequently engage on Middle East affairs. Russia views China’s growing diplomatic assertiveness in the Middle East as a positive step toward a multipolar regional order. Nevertheless, Russia is trying to avoid being completely eclipsed by China as a prospective conflict arbiter. While the two countries concur on opposing unilateral sanctions and democratic uprisings in the Middle East, Beijing does not universally approve of Moscow’s positions on regional crises and its power projection strategy.

The “Axis of Resistance,” a network of non-state actors aligned with Iran, has emerged as a significant force in the Middle East in the last two decades. Despite the attention given to the more well-known members of the Axis of Resistance, the Azerbaijani group Hoseyniyun, which also operates within the network, remains relatively unknown.

The Biden administration has been trying to diplomatically reengage with China, although so far with little response from Beijing. Any broad reengagement would necessarily include reengagement in the Middle East and North Africa. Both sides have a long list of common interests in the Middle East; the areas where their interests diverge relate mainly to suspicions of the other side’s long-term strategy and global ambitions. How can Washington and Beijing build on common interests in the region while addressing their long-term concerns, reducing some of them and accommodating robust competition or even sharp adversarial attitudes in other areas?

Chinese companies are well positioned to participate in Iraq’s efforts to expand its oil production capacity and develop domestic gas supplies, as they are actively engaged in various energy-related undertakings throughout the country. However, if indeed China’s strategy is, as some have suggested, to become the dominant player in Iraq’s economy, achieving that objective will likely prove difficult given Iraq’s challenging operating environment and contentious politics.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has destabilized and distressed the entire Black Sea neighborhood. Yet despite the war, or perhaps because of it, strategically important foreign direct investments into Black Sea littoral countries, including from the Gulf, have endured or even grown.