اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
As Russia’s two-week-old war against Ukraine has brought Lebanon’s wheat imports from the besieged Black Sea nation to a complete standstill, the government in Beirut is racing against the clock to avert a catastrophic food crisis.
While Europe might be ready for more Algerian gas as it looks to diversify its suppliers, Algeria’s current production capacity limits its ability to substantially increase export volumes to Europe. As of now, any meaningful increases in Algerian production will require years of exploration and development and more crucially, further energy industry reforms to attract new investment.
Attempts at deterrence by sanctions have failed. The question now is: Does the West expect sanctions to change Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions? We think not — and the world should have given up years ago on expecting them to dissuade him.
One of the most ambitious elements of China’s Digital Silk Road is the Pakistan & East Africa Connecting Europe (PEACE) fiber-optic cable. China has long expressed its ambition to connect the greater Middle East, Africa, and Europe with Chinese fiber optics in order to expand its presence in the region, and Beijing now boasts strategic infrastructure assets in geopolitical hotspots, such as the Pakistani port of Gwadar.
Although Western countries have managed to limit Moscow’s capacity to export oil, the Arab Gulf monarchies are unlikely to be able to benefit in the near term. This may change in the long run, however.
With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war on Feb. 24, 2022, Egypt’s food security crisis now poses an existential threat to its economy. The fragile state of Egypt’s food security stems from the agricultural sector’s inability to produce enough cereal grains, especially wheat, and oilseeds to meet even half of the country’s domestic demand.
While there are similarities between Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine today, we argue that overstating them leads to a deeper misunderstanding of both conflicts and leaves out significant differences that need to be addressed.
Iranian observers argue that Russia is willing to sacrifice Iranian interests when expedient, and some might even think that Russia is pivoting toward Israel in its Middle East policy. Nonetheless, the big picture of Russo-Iranian relations over the last decade reveals security cooperation between Tehran and Moscow that stands on a strong and reliable foundation, with both countries benefitting.
Gulf oil and gas exporters might seek to gain market share from Russia and act as a source of energy stability for Europe.
Conventional wisdom has it that the conflict in Ukraine will lead the U.S. to bolster its military presence along NATO’s boundary in Eastern Europe, with a concomitant downscaling in the Middle East. While presenting a robust front in support of NATO is of course critical, it would be a mistake to do so at the expense of the U.S. military presence in the Middle East at a time when it appears likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen the region as the venue for the next moves in his campaign to marginalize the U.S.
تحمل الأزمة في أوكرانيا، من وجهة نظر أنقرة، مخاطر كبيرة، لكنها تنطوي أيضًا على بعض الفرص. إنها ليست أزمة من صنعهم، ولا أزمة رحبوا بها. ومع ذلك، من الواضح أن أنقرة جهَّزت مخططًا أساسيًا لتجاوز العاصفة. من وجهة نظر صانعي السياسة في واشنطن، من المرجح أن تجلب استراتيجيتهم إحباطًا أكثر من تطمينًا.
وفي نفس الوقت، فإن الفهم الأفضل لكيف تأمل تركيا أن تتجاوز الأزمة الأوكرانية يمكن أن يساعد في توضيح بعض النقاشات الجارية داخل واشنطن حول كيفية تصور السياسة الخارجية الجديدة لأنقرة ومكانها داخل حلف الناتو.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
The first International Development Research Centre (IDRC)-Middle East Institute (MEI) Roundtable on Energy Transitions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), held on January 20, 2022, explored the challenges and opportunities facing the region as a result of the global energy transition. As it accelerates over the course of the century, this global transition will provide new opportunities for economies to evolve while putting a strain on the current economic model of many nations in MENA.
The crisis in Ukraine, from the perspective of Ankara, carries significant risks, but also some opportunity. It is neither a crisis of their own making, nor one that they welcomed; nevertheless, Ankara has clearly developed a basic blueprint for weathering the storm. From the perspective of Washington policymakers, their strategy is likely to hold more frustration than reassurance.