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Russia’s efforts to expand the Astana process in Syria
 President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan (C), President of Russia Vladimir Putin (L) and President of Iran Hassan Rouhani (R) pose for a photo after the joint press conference held within the Turkey-Russia-Iran trilateral summit at Cankaya Mansion in Ankara, Turkey on September 16, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • Russia’s efforts to expand the Astana process in Syria

    On Sept. 16, the presidents of Russia, Iran, and Turkey met in Ankara to discuss the resolution of the Syrian civil war. In all three countries, the Ankara summit was hailed as a major success, as negotiations on the formation of a Syrian constitutional committee concluded and progress was made toward resolving other outstanding challenges, such as the future of northeastern Syria and the ongoing struggle for Idlib.

    October 7, 2019

    Trade, Reform, and Revitalization: Toward a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement
  • Analysis
  • Trade, Reform, and Revitalization: Toward a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement

    A question as to the value of a U.S.-Egypt Free Trade Agreement (FTA) misses the point. The question should not be whether an FTA would be in the interest of both parties since there is abundant evidence that it would. The question is what kind of FTA would best suit the needs, both short and long term, of the two parties: shallow integration or deep integration? This report argues that notwithstanding several hurdles, it is in the interest of both countries to move swiftly and decisively toward a deep FTA.

    Wave of protests rocks Iraq
    An Iraqi protester waves the national flag during a demonstration against state corruption, failing public services, and unemployment, in the Iraqi capital Baghdad on October 5, 2019.
  • Commentary
  • Wave of protests rocks Iraq

    For now, both Najaf and Tehran seemed to have a convergence of interests on preserving the post-2003 political order.

    October 7, 2019

    Iran appears poised to interfere in 2020 presidential election
    US President Donald Trump looks on during a rally at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida to officially launch his 2020 campaign on June 18, 2019.
  • Commentary
  • Iran appears poised to interfere in 2020 presidential election

    Lately, Iran has begun leveraging LinkedIn to hack espionage targets and has developed sophisticated disinformation campaigns to exacerbate distrust of its adversary governments.

    October 7, 2019

    Trump greenlights Turkish incursion into northeastern Syria
    A Syrian boy watches as Turkish military vehicles, part of a US military convoy, take part in joint patrol in the Syrian village of al-Hashisha on the outskirts of Tal Abyad town along the border with Turkey, on October 4, 2019.
  • Commentary
  • Trump greenlights Turkish incursion into northeastern Syria

    A unilateral Turkish military operation will worsen the already toxic mood vis-à-vis Erdogan on the Hill and might prompt a new round of sanctions at a time when Trump was trying to convince the Congress to hold off on punishing Turkey.

    Afghanistan may be headed for a post-election political impasse
    : Afghan vote in a key Presidential election on September 28, 2019 in Kabul, Afghanistan.
  • Commentary
  • Afghanistan may be headed for a post-election political impasse

    Preliminary results from the Sept. 28 Afghan presidential election will not be announced for at least another week. Yet events are shaping up that could drive Afghanistan into a political impasse similar to what the country faced in its last presidential election.

    Turkish-backed Syrian armed opposition groups to unite under one banner
    Syrian National Army and National Independence Front merge
  • Commentary
  • Turkish-backed Syrian armed opposition groups to unite under one banner

    After a long-drawn-out series of negotiations, Turkey has successfully convinced more than 40 armed opposition groups in northern Syria to unite under a single umbrella, directly under the command of the Syrian Interim Government’s Ministry of Defense.

    Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East
    Middle East Institute
  • Podcast
  • Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East

    MEI President Paul Salem and Senior Fellow Ross Harrison join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the underlying causes of the numerous civil conflicts engulfing the Middle East, the regional and global dynamics that complicate them, and potential policy responses.

    MEI’s new book, Escaping the Conflict Trap: Toward Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East, co-edited by Salem and Harrison, is now available in paperback or for Kindle.

    October 4, 2019

    Saudi Arabia's hidden gem: Al-Ula
  • Analysis
  • Saudi Arabia's hidden gem: Al-Ula

    Saudi Arabia’s archeological treasures have long been hidden in plain sight, known mainly to the people living in their proximity and a handful of scholars. But five recent UNESCO World Heritage Site designations have highlighted the universal value of the country’s material legacy.

    October 3, 2019

    Qassem Soleimani and the Iranian regime’s quest for legitimacy
    Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani (C) attends Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's (not seen) meeting with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) in Tehran, Iran on September 18, 2016.
  • Commentary
  • Qassem Soleimani and the Iranian regime’s quest for legitimacy

    If there is one Iranian military figure that can be considered an international celebrity of sorts, it is General Qassem Soleimani. He is the head of the Quds Force, the arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that operates outside of Iran’s borders. This week, he gave his first ever lengthy public interview, focusing on Iran’s role in the 2006 war between Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel.

    The war in Syria is far from over, but its nature is changing
    A Syrian rebel fighter aims his Kalashnikov assault rifle as he stands near the frontline against government forces west of the embattled southern city of Daraa on July 3, 2018.
  • Analysis
  • The war in Syria is far from over, but its nature is changing

    As ISIS’s territorial “state” was simultaneously rolled back and then defeated, an international consensus increasingly emerged that claimed Syria’s war was “winding down.” There is no doubt that the geographic scope and intensity of conflict is not what it was at the height of hostilities in 2014 and 2015, but it is certainly not finished either.

    Iran’s attack on Saudi Arabia was ill-timed and premature
    A destroyed installation in Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant is pictured on September 20, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • Iran’s attack on Saudi Arabia was ill-timed and premature

    On Sept. 14, the news that Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities had been attacked and damaged came as a shock. And yet, in the not too distant future, this attack will likely be regarded as a tactical mistake. Tehran has miscalculated the timing of such a spectacular attack and it’s unclear whether Iran will get another opportunity to strike such a surprise blow again.

    October 1, 2019

    After Aramco: Will halting Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia end Yemen’s war?
    Yemeni men stand with Kalashikov assault rifles during a tribal meeting in the Huthi rebel-held capital Sanaa on September 21, 2019, as tribesmen donate rations and funds to fighters loyal to the Houthis along the fronts.
  • Analysis
  • After Aramco: Will halting Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia end Yemen’s war?

    After five years of indecisive war, there is a clear desire on the part of the international community to bring the conflict in Yemen to an end, and the recent UN-endorsed Houthi initiative seems predicated on the assumption that ending the fighting between Riyadh and the Houthis would achieve this. A closer look at the situation, however, suggests this assumption is flawed.

    October 1, 2019