Research & Commentary Results

On February 28, the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran. MEI defense experts weigh in on the military and regional consequences.

The latest cycle of U.S.-Iran escalation has followed a familiar script: sharpened rhetoric from the United States, calibrated military signaling by Iran in the Persian Gulf, indirect diplomacy through Oman, and Israeli warnings that remain deliberately ambiguous but unmistakably real. Yet beneath this choreography lies a more consequential development inside Tehran. The current crisis is forcing Iran’s political class to reassess its central foreign-policy wager of the past decade: that deepening alignment with Russia and China would provide strategic insulation against Western coercion.

Against the backdrop of one of the largest US military deployments to the Middle East since 2003, MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to assess the situation inside Iran on the eve of potential war. Weeks after the Islamic Republic’s brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters and as negotiations with the US fail to find common ground, Donald Trump is reportedly weighing options for military action against Iran. Vatanka breaks down the regime’s strategic calculus, the current dynamics of Iran’s opposition movement, and the likely domestic political consequences of a military strike.

Crude oil legally sanctioned by the United States and its allies today makes up an estimated 18% of global tanker capacity, or 6-7% of total unrefined petroleum flows — shares that have been growing. Increased pressure on Russian exports and US intervention in Venezuela have further constrained Russian flows and temporarily removed Venezuela, the smallest sanctioned producer, from the market. Iranian exports, however, remain largely untouched.

US President Donald Trump takes to the podium tonight to deliver the first State of the Union address of his second term.

“It’s going to be a long speech because we have a lot to talk about,” Trump said ahead of the address. The State of the Union—an annual speech delivered by the US president to Congress—typically focuses heavily on domestic policy issues, and that’s likely to be the case with tonight’s speech as well. Concerns about the health of America’s economy and growing public controversy about the Trump administration’s immigration policies are two of the domestic policy issues Trump will likely address.

While it may not have been perfect, the Trump administration achieved a considerable amount in the first year of its second term, and there is reason to be optimistic that additional dividends will accrue in 2026.

The United States’ rapid military buildup across the Gulf has triggered a familiar anxiety in Tehran, but the Iranians’ reading of American intentions has grown sharper and more layered than at any point in recent years.

US President Donald Trump hosted an idiosyncratic gathering of global representatives in Washington on February 19 that included some key Middle East figures meeting under the banner of peace to discuss the next steps in Gaza just as the US was sending more military forces to the region to pressure and possibly target Iran.

Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Natan Sachs to discuss Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s February 11 visit to the White House, Israel’s anxieties surrounding the ongoing US-Iran talks, and the domestic political dynamics Netanyahu is operating under. Taylor, Czekaj, and Sachs unpack what Netanyahu hoped to achieve during the visit, particularly regarding Iran, and what his relationship with President Donald Trump can tell us about the relative coordination and policy alignment between the US and Israel. They also examine Netanyahu’s political standing at home, two and half years since the October 7 attacks, as the 2026 election campaign begins in Israel. Finally, Sachs assesses what lies ahead for Israeli politics.

Brian sits down with Holly Dagres, Libitzky Family Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to discuss Iranian public opinion and protest movements. Dagres, who was born in Los Angeles and moved to Iran at age thirteen, offers a rare insider perspective on the views and aspirations of the Iranian people. The conversation explores the formative experiences of her teenage years in Iran, the roots of the country’s powerful women’s movements, the power of youth voices, and US policy toward Iran.

The United States is Israel’s closest ally, and its support is a central pillar of Israel’s national security. The US provides Israel access to purchase advanced weapon systems, ammunition and weapon emergency supplies in times of war, intelligence sharing, opportunities for cooperation in defense technology, and crucial diplomatic cover at the UN Security Council and elsewhere. It also provides Israel with regular security aid, to be spent in the United States, currently at an annual rate of $3.8bn (under an MOU that expires in 2028). Since October 2023, the US also offered active military support, in a break from the historical norm. It contributed substantially to Israel’s defense against Iranian ballistic missiles, in conjunction with Arab regional partners, and bombed nuclear sites in Iran in support of Israel’s campaign in the “12 Day War” of June 2025.

The Abraham Accords have represented a remarkable shift in U.S. Middle East policy. They reframed Arab-Israeli normalization as a result of shared interests – within the Middle East and directly with the US, rather than as a byproduct of Israeli-Palestinian peace. Signed in September 2020, on the last leg of the first Trump administration, the Accords brokered by Washington normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, followed by framework agreements with Morocco and Sudan. From the American perspective, the Accords were intended to break decades of diplomatic stagnation in the Middle East in order to establish a regional framework aligned with American strategic objectives.

Whenever Iran is shaken by nationwide protests, as it was just last month, analysts and activists are consumed by the same two questions: will the country’s regime finally fall, and what will come next if it does? Answers abound.

In November 2025, the United States sought and obtained approval for a United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR 2803) endorsing the formation of a Board of Peace (BoP) and International Stabilization Force (ISF) to support the implementation of the 20-point peace plan agreed to by Israel and Hamas the previous month. The ISF’s stated role is to help secure and demilitarize the Gaza Strip, primarily by facilitating the decommissioning of weapons, protecting civilians, and training and advising burgeoning Palestinian police forces. In the intervening months, however, progress on standing up the ISF has stalled, and conflicting messaging from US officials provides more questions than answers.