Curb Your Enthusiasm: Why the Midterms Might Not Change Much in US Middle East Policy
With less than a week before the midterm elections in the United States, the spotlight is on the economy and cultural divides. US foreign policy remains mostly on the sidelines, but this year’s inconclusive Iran war and its effect on America’s economy have shaped the broader political environment in this electoral cycle.
The Multiple Costs of the US–Iran War – From Hormuz to Europe and South Asia: The Widening Economic and Political Geography of the Conflict
Wars are decided by those who hold military power, but their costs are increasingly borne by those who have little or no voice in the decisions that start them. The US–Iran war shows this imbalance very clearly. Its economic consequences have gone far beyond the battlefield and have disrupted energy markets, trade routes, food supplies, public finances and investment in the Gulf, Europe, Africa and Asia. The most striking feature of the conflict, however, is not only the size of the damage but its very unequal distribution.
In recent weeks, the Iran-backed Houthis have fired missiles and drones deep into Saudi Arabia, striking high-profile targets, including Riyadh’s airport and Aramco’s headquarters. The attacks follow a rapid Houthi offensive in September to seize key parts of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, which Saudi-backed government forces are now trying to roll back. Fatima Abo Alasrar, an affiliated scholar at MEI and non-resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to unpack the latest phase of the conflict. They discuss what the Houthis want, Riyadh’s calculus and search for allies, and how this campaign ties into Iran’s confrontation with the United States.
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Heads of Government Branches Discuss Ways to Counteract U.S. Sanctions
The heads of Iran’s executive, legislative and judicial branches met today to discuss how Iran should respond to the Trump administration’s aggressive policy vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic. In the meeting, President Hassan Rouhani, Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani and Judicary Chief Sadegh Larijani focused on the latest U.S. sanctions and their impact on the country’s economy. Rouhani said the United States is “plotting” to undermine the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear agreement Iran signed with world powers in July 2015.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi visited Turkey on Wednesday to discuss potential joint steps against northern Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (K.R.G.) following last month’s independence referendum. Ankara is hoping to influence Iraqi politics by cultivating close ties to Baghdad, but the newly forged Turkish-Iraqi alliance is unlikely to hold, leaving Turkey isolated in the post-referendum Iraq.
P.M.F. Spokesman: We’ll Hold U.S. Responsible for Calling Muhandis “Terrorist”
Leaders of Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) rushed to defend Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the paramilitary forces’ chief operational commander, after U.S. State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert called Muhandis a “terrorist” at a press briefing on Thursday. “These remarks indicate a direct threat to Muhandis’ life and we hold America responsible for any attempt or harm to the life of the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces,” P.M.F.
Iran-Backed Iraqi Militia Forces Advancing to Capture al-Qaim Near Syrian Border
The chief operational commander of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) issued a statement yesterday outlining plans for the paramilitary forces and Iraqi troops to liberate the towns of Rawa and al-Qaim on the Euphrates River in western al-Anbar Province near the border with Syria. “We seek to lock down the entire Iraqi-Syrian border from north to south,” the statement said. In an interview with the Lebanese al-Mayadeen news outlet earlier today, P.M.F.
Top Clerics Back Khamenei in Rejecting Missile Talks with West
Senior Iranian clerics on Friday backed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s earlier remarks that Iran’s defense capabilities, including its controversial missile program, are non-negotiable. During their Friday prayer sermons, the clerics emphasized that the Islamic Republic will defy international pressure and continue to further enhance its military assets. They also encouraged worshippers to participate in the upcoming National Day against Global Arrogance to condemn the Trump administration’s anti-Iran policies.
I.R.G.C. Claims It Dismantled “Terrorist Team” in Northwest Iran
Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) announced on Thursday that its forces “dismantled a terrorist team” in Chaldaran region of northwestern Azerbaijan Province. According to a statement released by the public relations department of I.R.G.C.’s Hamze Sayyid al-Shohada Base, four “terrorists’ were killed in armed clashes between I.R.G.C. forces and the militants.
In their new report for the Atlantic Council, “U.S. Strategy Options for Iran’s Regional Challenge,” and an essay version published in the Washington Quarterly, Bilal Saab and Kenneth M. Pollack lay out a “pushback” strategy to weaken Iran’s regional influence. The co-authors join host Paul Salem to weigh the strengths and weaknesses of this and other strategies in this week’s podcast.
Wars Distracting Middle East from Serious Climate Change Threats
Wars in MENA are causing irreparable damage to water security and resilience to climate change in some of the region’s countries and to their viability. The continuation of this dangerous state could ultimately reinforce even deeper instability in MENA.
Khamenei Urges Visiting Iraqi Leader not to Rely on America
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi today in Tehran that he should not trust the United States as a reliable partner in the fight against terrorism, the Iranian media reported. “The Americans themselves created Daesh [Islamic State]. But now that the terrorists are defeated by the Iraqi government and people, they pretend to be supportive and helpful.
Khamenei: No Negotiations with Enemy over Iran’s Defense Capabilities
Defying U.S. pressure, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated on Wednesday that the country’s defense capabilities and assets are non-negotiable, Tasnim News Agency reported.
Iraqi Hezbollah: Our Heroes Fired First Shots at U.S. Soldiers, Expelled them from Iraq
Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iranian-sponsored Iraqi militia group, said today that the United States and its regional allies created the Islamic State three years ago to destabilize Iraq and Syria. A statement released by the group claimed that “heroes of the Hezbollah Brigades had the privilege of firing the first shots at the U.S.
Tillerson’s Remarks and Saudi-Iraqi Meeting in Riyadh Worried Tehran
The 2003 ouster of the Saddam regime and the emergence of the Islamic State in 2014 in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal helped Iran to become the most influential foreign power in Iraq. However, there is a growing concern in Tehran that the latest U.S.-backed diplomatic efforts by Saudi Arabia to forge close ties with the Iraqi government and Shiite leaders may undercut Iranian influence in Iraq.
Yemen’s Humanitarian Disaster: Halting the Famine Threat
Summary
Only several months after the Saudi-led military coalition waged its ongoing campaign against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in March 2015, the United Nations began issuing warnings about famine. Today, millions of Yemenis are on the brink of famine, with about half a million suffering from a cholera outbreak. This paper analyzes the causes of Yemen’s humanitarian catastrophe and offers the Trump administration recommendations for helping the impoverished Arab state avoid a famine.
An Obstacle to Riyadh’s Outreach to Baghdad: Iraqi Interior Minister’s Ties with I.R.G.C.
After a long period of disengagement, Saudi Arabia is improving its relations with the Iraqi government and Shiite leaders to challenge Iran’s long-established influence in the country. Riyadh has recently hosted several Iraqi leaders for talks, including Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, Interior Minister Qasim Mohammad Jalal al-Araji, and Muqtada al-Sadr, a prominent Shiite cleric and politician.
Political Life Waning in Jordan with Death of Centrist Party
This month’s decision by Jordan’s biggest centrist party, the National Current Party (N.C.P.), to disband has been described by pundits as tantamount to issuing a formal death certificate to political parties in the kingdom. But the demise of the N.C.P. has barely raised an eyebrow among ordinary Jordanians, the majority of whom are busy making ends meet amid an economic crunch and widespread political apathy.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
