الأبحاث والتعليقات

After a week of talks with Japanese officials, scholars, and intellectuals, I am still grappling with the back-and-forth about the emerging global disorder and the evolving situation in the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

This paper investigates the ongoing Libya conflict through the Enduring Disorder paradigm, focusing on the financial and banking sectors, honing in on stakeholder perceptions of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), its transparency/opacity, and the “narrative wars” over who is to blame for, and who benefits from, Libya’s economic dysfunction, the lack of an annual budget, and the current lack of a quorum on the CBL board.

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan leader Bafel Talabani is a frequent visitor to Baghdad, traveling to Iraq’s capital an estimated 35 times since the beginning of 2022 or more than once every two weeks on average. It is indicative of a deliberate strategy by the PUK to increase its activity within Iraq’s federal system, making it a priority, rather than merely an afterthought, to political affairs in the Kurdistan Region.

The unwinding of global food production chains due to the combined shocks of Covid-19 and the war on Ukraine, made worse by the impact of climate change on the food-water-energy nexus, will require the six nations of the western Mediterranean – Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Spain, France and Italy – to develop new forms of economic cooperation. An Italy–Morocco partnership on green energy food production can be a model for resilient food production chains.

MEI’s US-Lebanon Fellow Fadi Nicholas Nassar speaks to Beirut-based international finance professional Mike Azar (@AzarsTweets) on Lebanon’s financial crisis. What is the state of Lebanon’s banking system, and how did it become so dysfunctional? What does Azar recommend to get Lebanon’s economy back on track, and can the Lira be saved? 

The next few decades will be crucial for Iraq and the KRG as global changes reshape the energy sector. The push for sustainable development, the Paris Agreement climate goals, and associated efforts in areas like renewable energy, climate change, and environmental protection will bring about a transition across the sector, affecting everything from employment and working patterns to governance.

There is an emerging solar technology that is more efficient than the current photovoltaic solar farms and which also helps to save water by reducing evaporation. Floating solar farms can play a significant role in addressing the Middle East’s clean energy needs as well as mitigating its water shortages. 

The earthquake seems to have damaged the charismatic populist’s image. And voters may finally be ready for an uncharismatic man who promises to put things in order.

On Dec. 25, 2022, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune signed the 2023 budget bill into law. The new finance law lays out unprecedented government spending of $98 billion, the largest state budget in Algeria’s history and a 25% increase from 2022 levels. It also provides clear insight into the authorities’ vision for the future and potential scenarios for Algeria’s direction on the economy and international relations.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy is converting two merchant container ships into vessels capable of carrying and launching combat drones against maritime or coastal targets. For now, Iran’s drone carriers are unlikely to pose a clear and present danger to the U.S., but they possess symbolic significance as a potential tool to defy American initiatives in the Middle East and respond to Israel’s attacks against Iran.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani has served for 10 years as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Iran’s top policymaking body in both domestic and foreign policy matters. A number of recent developments have aroused speculation that he could soon vacate his seat. Such a change would be an important signpost of how the Iranian establishment is posturing itself against the backdrop of continued revolutionary sentiment among significant segments of the population.

Art Dubai is so much more than an art fair. In this, its most ambitious iteration and 16th year, it promises to be both a cultural emporium and a litmus test for the global economy.

Turkey has suffered severely from the two major earthquakes on Feb. 6, 2023. The death toll is a record high, exceeding 45,000. Physical damage from the earthquakes will cost at least $20 billion. GDP growth will be 2.0-2.5% less than forecast before the disaster, adding nearly $20 billion. The combined economic losses due to damaged assets and slower growth expectations may end up being much higher than $40 billion when the government releases a detailed and reliable disaster loss report covering human resources.