Gönül Tol is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), where she focuses on Turkish politics, US-Turkey relations and regional dynamics in the Middle East.
A frequent commentator, Dr. Tol has written extensively on Turkish domestic and foreign policy for publications such as Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, Foreign Policy, and TheFinancial Times. Her articles include “Turkey Is Now a Full-Blown Autocracy” in Foreign Affairs (March 2025), “The Indispensable Erdogan” in The New York Times and “Erdogan Sees Nothing But Opportunity in Syria” in TheFinancial Times (December 2024).
In this Weekly Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Gonul Tol, and Ruba Husari provide analysis on issues including the UNSC’s inability to administer diplomatic solutions in Syria, the rebuilding of diplomatic ties between Russia and Turkey, and OPEC’s ongoing consideration of how to control member state oil production.
Monday Briefing: Turkish Incursion into Syria, OPEC Meeting
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Daniel Serwer, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Turkish intervention in Syria, and next month’s OPEC meeting in Algeria.
One might wonder how a country that recently survived a bloody coup attempt and multiple terrorist attacks could embark on a military incursion into a neighboring country. Yet this is exactly what Turkey has done.
Turkish President Erdogan is about to make a high-profile visit to Tehran. The trip is not just about a potential warming of relations between Ankara and Tehran but some think it might become a turning point and herald a new regional alignment on how to end the Syrian civil war.
Monday Briefing: Turkey's Iran Outreach and Regional Diplomatic Strategy
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Alex Vatanka, Charles Schmitz, and Robert S. Ford provide analysis on current issues including Turkey’s regional diplomacy as President Erdogan is set to visit Tehran, the Iranian perspective on Turkey’s role in the region, Secretary Kerry’s visit to Saudi Arabia amid renewed fighting in Yemen, and ongoing attempts to broker a cease-fire deal in Syria.
Unpacking Turkey’s Failed Coup: Causes and Consequences
Who was Behind the Coup?
When President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressed the Turkish people via FaceTime on the night of July 15, he pointed the finger of blame for the coup attempt squarely at Fethullah Gulen and his followers in the military.[1]
Monday Briefing: The Battle for Aleppo, Turkey's Gulen Extradition Request, and IMF talks in Cairo
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the battle for Aleppo, Turkey’s extradition appeal for Fatullah Gulen, and IMF talks in Cairo this week on Egypt’s request for more than $12 billion in loans.
Monday Briefing: Turkey's Post-Coup Military Restructuring and US-Russia Meeting in Geneva on Syria Coodrination
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol and Randa Slim provide analysis on the restructuring of Turkey’s military following the recent failed coup attempt and the meeting between U.S. and Russian officials in Geneva tomorrow to discuss counterterrorism coordination in Syria.
Turkey is a country of ironies. A president who has called Twitter “the worst menace to society” and frequently expressed his “hatred” of the Internet, used both to prevent the coup against his rule when he called on his followers to take to the streets using Twitter and Facetime. The first TV network he called to reach out to his followers was CNN Turk, a channel he repeatedly accused of “terrorism propaganda” and “supporting coup against his government” and that has been the target of physical attacks by pro-Erdogan supporters.
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has announced his resignation after 20 months in office. The decision has exposed a rift with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with whom tension has been building for some time. Erdogan handpicked Davutoglu as the country’s next prime minister after he became the president in August 2014, expecting that he would play a backseat role as Erdogan pushed ahead with plans to make the largely ceremonial presidency into an all-powerful executive position.
Turkey’s Choices: Muslim Brotherhood or Regional Isolation
In the latest attempt to break Turkey’s regional isolation, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu wrapped up last week what he described as a watershed visit to the United Arab Emirates. He held meetings with high-ranking leaders and successfully improved ties with a key Arab state that has opposed Turkey’s pro-Muslim Brotherhood regional policies. The U.A.E. announced during the visit that it has decided to appoint an ambassador to Turkey after three years of coldness in ties.
The United States has been pushing Turkey for a campaign to eject ISIS from a 60-mile stretch of border that it still controls between the Syrian towns of Jarabulus and Azaz. However, the joint U.S.-Turkey operation has faced several roadblocks. From the outset, the United States and Turkey have had different goals. Washington wants Ankara to close the border, which is the sole remaining crossing point for ISIS militants.
Monday Briefing: Erdogan's Failed Washington Trip, Iraq's Cabinet Reshuffle, and Other Key Issues in Week Ahead
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Robert S. Ford, Charles Lister, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent events including Turkish President Erdogan’s visit to Washington, the reshuffling of Iraq’s cabinet, King Salman’s forthcoming visit to Egypt, and the latest attempts by Jabhat al-Nusra over the weekend to disrupt the Syrian political process.
