المشرق العربي

A new crisis is brewing between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and this one is going to be much more severe and damaging than the dispute over the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

At first glance Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria might seem to benefit Moscow. But dig a little deeper and the situation becomes much less clear and creates a lot of ambiguity and complexity for Russia.

Eleven MEI scholars weigh in on the key Middle East policy issues for the year ahead.

President Donald Trump is doing the right thing on Syria — removing U.S. forces — but for the wrong reasons. As a consequence, the value and import of his decision will be less than might otherwise be the case.

President Trump’s Dec. 23 tweet promising a “slow and highly coordinated” withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria may ease the gnashing of teeth among officials and analysts in Washington, but it won’t end the criticism of his decision. That is precisely why the president should view the hullabaloo that erupted after he announced the Syrian pullout as an opportunity to take a number of steps to make the most of his essentially correct, but widely unpopular, move.

As the conflict in Syria concludes, the next phase will center on rebuilding and will require hundreds of billions of dollars in investment. For now though, sanctions imposed by the U.S., U.K., and EU block money from flowing in.

Eleven MEI scholars run down the major policy developments in the Middle East in 2018.

In our final episode of the year, host Alistair Taylor interviews several MEI scholars on the key events that transpired across the Middle East in 2018 including in the Gulf, Iran, Turkey, and Afghanistan. Guests include Paul Salem, Gerald Feierstein, Alex Vatanka, Gonul Tol, and Ahmad Majidyar.

Whether Erdogan will follow through on his threat of military incursion against the YPG in U.S.-protected areas of Syria depends on the reaction of the international community, the Turkish military, and nationalist voters at home.

While non-Arab powers have taken the lead in the Syrian crisis so far, Damascus will need to restore political, economic, and diplomatic ties with regional Arab states as it moves into the phase of postwar reconstruction and development.

For Turkey, the best solution to its “U.S. problem” might seem like an American withdrawal from Syria, but such a move could create new and potentially more complicated problems for Ankara.

The Syrian Republican Guard (RG) has served as the backbone of the regime’s fighting forces since protests first broke out across the country in 2011.This report uses publicly available Facebook posts to piece together the history of the five regiments, six brigades, and 46 battalions identified as now belonging to the RG. Featuring an order of battle, command structure, and battalion commander profiles, this report stands as the most comprehensive record of the RG to date.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including the coming changes in Trump’s administration, Iran’s hesitation in the US-China battle over Huawei , the ongoing Sweden talks on Yemen, results of the latest GCC summit, and questions over the legitimacy of the Afghan elections.

Although Oman has long been a regional mediator with ties to competing powers, it will need to maintain a delicate balancing act between its new strategic partnership with the Israelis and established relations with the Palestinians.