The Hormuz Crisis and China’s Energy Security Dilemma
Despite sustained efforts to prioritize energy security across successive policy cycles, China remains exposed to external supply chains it does not control. The core problem is not simply import dependence, but reliance on maritime transit routes – particularly through the Strait of Hormuz – whose security ultimately lies beyond Beijing’s authority. The escalation of the Israel-U.S. war with Iran and the resulting disruption of traffic through Hormuz has transformed a long-recognized strategic risk into an immediate constraint, revealing the limits of China’s ability to ensure stable energy access under conditions of geopolitical contestation.
The UAE’s departure represents an undeniable strategic setback for OPEC+. Its most likely response will be to shore up the amount of output capacity subject to quotas. For now, there are two clear pathways it could take to accomplish this, although neither represents a quick fix.
Last May, U.S. President Donald Trump paid a triumphant visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Over the course of a four-day tour, he admired the Gulf capitals’ “gleaming marvels,” cheered on their ambitious modernization plans, and showcased over $3 trillion in pledged Gulf investment and “mega-deals” between U.S. and Gulf businesses.
Trump Planned for Pressure on Iran, but Not the Global and Domestic Blowback
The limelight for American foreign policy shifts to Beijing this month, where US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet on May 14-15 to address a long list of unresolved issues. But the Iran war and still unfolding geo-economic calamity resulting from it cast a long shadow. One thing to watch for is whether China or the US feels like it has a stronger hand in light of recent events in the Middle East.
Fixing America’s Failed Strategies in the Middle East
The Middle East is both central to key United States interests and prone to instability. Yet US national security and defense strategic guidance has struggled to account for the unique demands of the region. Calls for strategic divestiture from the region have grown in prominence among analysts and policymakers alike in recent years.
Rebalancing Ambition: Saudi Arabia’s Megaproject Pivot
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 has entered a sobering phase. The kingdom’s most ambitious megaprojects, conceived a decade ago during an era of oil-fueled confidence, are colliding with fiscal reality and a far more volatile external environment shaped by regional conflict and energy market disruption. What is unfolding is not the collapse of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) diversification agenda, but a forced recalibration: a shift away from architectural spectacle toward economic pragmatism, reinforced by tightening fiscal space, institutional reprioritization under the Public Investment Fund’s (PIF) new strategy, and growing exposure to regional security risks.
Why Iran’s Oil Pain Does Not Guarantee Capitulation
President Donald Trump now appears to share a view gaining traction in some policy circles: that sustained pressure on Iran’s oil sector could inflict lasting damage on its production and eventually force Tehran to compromise. The thesis is appealingly simple, yet dangerously incomplete.
In the Trump administration’s diplomatic track with Tehran, one crucial variable is missing: steady US engagement with its Arab partners, particularly in the Gulf, on what the strategic endgame with Iran looks like.
Test of Wills: Iran’s Ability to Outlast the US Blockade
The standoff in the Hormuz is not simply a question of whether Tehran can survive economic pressure, but whether Washington can sustain the pressure at an acceptable cost.
Nearly two months into the Iran war, US President Donald Trump has announced an indefinite extension of the cease-fire between Washington and Tehran, even as control of the Strait of Hormuz remains contested. Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka to explore where the conflict may be headed and unpack the factors at play. They discuss how Iran’s internal power structures have shifted since February 28, the prospects for a deal between Washington and Tehran, and what form a resumption of hostilities could take.
Operation Epic Fury has delivered tactical gains without a viable strategic end state. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, Iran’s leadership has reorganized, and the diplomatic track has fractured.
The opposition in Congress is attempting to force a war powers vote on the Trump administration’s Iran operation, with an eye toward the 60-day deadline on military action legally imposed on the executive branch; and key defense-spending measures are also on the immediate horizon. These actions on Capitol Hill could shape the trajectory of how the US moves forward in Iran and the region — and influence Americans’ overall appetite for long-term engagement in the Middle East.
How China Is Positioning Itself Ahead of the Trump–Xi Summit
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has just concluded a two-day visit (April 9–10) to North Korea, in his first trip to Pyongyang in more than six years. The visit emphasized strengthening high-level exchanges and expanding practical cooperation. With U.S. President Donald Trump set to arrive in Beijing in mid-May for a high-stakes summit with President Xi Jinping, the visit forms part of broader diplomatic activity across multiple fronts.
As Lebanese, Israeli, and American teams prepare for their first-ever trilateral leaders summit, it is time to reflect on this opportunity and lessons from the past.
