الأبحاث والتعليقات

The military took advantage of political crisis to remove civilian governments in Egypt in 2013 and Thailand in 2014. This essay discusses three important features of the Egyptian and Thai political systems that have fostered the military’s ruling ambition in both cases.

In the first installment of a new series of weekly briefings on the most important regional issues, MEI experts Randa Slim, Alex Vatanka, and Paul Salem analyze recent events including the ceasefire agreement in Syria, upcoming elections in Iran, and Saudi Arabia’s suspension of military aid to Lebanon.

Will New Cease-fire Deal in Syria Succeed?

Randa Slim
Director, Initiative for Track II Dialogues

This article was first published on RealClearWorld, and is part of the MEI series titled: “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections.”

MEI experts Charles Lister, Paul Salem, Randa Slim, and Gonul Tol weigh in on the intensifying battles in northern Syria, with dire predictions for the humanitarian situation as well as for the internal stability of neighbors. Lister argues the loss of the Azaz corridor would be a “catastrophic morale blow” to the Syrian opposition, while Tol believes current Turkish attacks on YPG positions is not a prelude to an invasion.

The cessation of hostilities was to begin in Syria on February 19. As was the case with the late 2011 and mid-2012 ceasefire efforts, this one is likely to fail. Instead of halting fire, the Syrian government is currently trying to isolate and assert dominion over the rebel-held portion of Aleppo, and, just as importantly, to block armed opposition supply lines extending down from Turkey. The Syrian government and its Russian and Iranian allies want to impose surrender terms on the armed opposition, not negotiate a compromise political deal.

Five years of war have unexpectedly reset gender roles in Syria. With so many men killed or missing, women are finding themselves the main supporters of their families and communities, and are often breaking with tradition and cultural taboos.

“Activists that engaged with the revolution have experienced big differences in gender relations, especially among the most conservative women,” said a 30-year-old underground activist and filmmaker in government-held central Damascus. She goes by the name Rafia, and she spoke to this author by Skype.

Read the full article on Foreign Policy.

Two weeks ahead of critical elections, President Hassan Rouhani can boast of achieving two of his key election pledges from 2013: He secured a groundbreaking diplomatic nuclear deal with world powers and has removed crippling sanctions on the country. Rouhani should, therefore, feel confident ahead of the Feb. 26 vote and see himself as well on course to winning re-election in 2017.

For the first time in almost half a century, the United States has acknowledged that it is “out of ideas” about how to address Israel’s occupation and fulfill a declared American interest in establishing a Palestinian state at peace with Israel.

This piece was first published on RealClearWorld.

China is a major economic partner of the GCC countries. This essay discusses the size and scope of this economic relationship, and considers how these ties might evolve as China’s ambitious One Belt One Road (OBOR) and Maritime Silk Road (MRS) initiatives take shape.

The streets and alleyways of Old Delhi are among the best-known examples of traditional urban environments in India. They are characterized by a great variety of users and activities, changing substantially according to day of the week, time of day or night, weather, seasons, and the cycle of public holidays, religious festivals and other special events. Despite all the hustle and bustle, however, there are informal norms and practices that influence the use of space and that keep accidents, property damage and criminal activity to low levels. This paper explores the continued viability of Old Delhi and the informal norms and practices that keep it functioning.

On January 8, 2016, the White House announced the creation of a new Countering Violent Extremism Task Force, hosted at the Department of Homeland Security. In many ways, this task force is an extension of the 2011 strategy, Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism in the United States, as well as the 2015 Summit on Countering Violent Extremism. But the White House also used the opportunity to emphasize the role that social media plays in violent extremism today.

Read the full article on CNN.

Turkey’s nightmare is coming true.

Not only is the battle for Aleppo sending tens of thousands of desperate people fleeing toward Turkey, but the fall of the rebel-held city would deliver a major blow to Ankara’s Syria policy.

This article was published on February 5, 2016 on Foreign Policy’s South Asia Channel.

Political and security ties between Saudi Arabia and China have developed far more slowly than have their economic relations. This essay explores the security dimension of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and China, and attempts to shed light on the question of why Sino-Saudi cooperation in the security sphere has been very limited.