Fixing America’s Failed Strategies in the Middle East
The Middle East is both central to key United States interests and prone to instability. Yet US national security and defense strategic guidance has struggled to account for the unique demands of the region. Calls for strategic divestiture from the region have grown in prominence among analysts and policymakers alike in recent years.
Former CIA operative: regime change in Iran is much harder than the US thinks
The United States and Israel have done significant damage to Iran’s military and security apparatus. Senior commanders have been killed at a pace rarely seen in modern warfare.
ليبيا تظل مفتاح الناتو لمواجهة الأنشطة الروسية الخبيثة في أفريقيا
قبل ثماني سنوات، لم يكن أحد يتوقع أن روسيا ستتوسع في أفريقيا بهذه السرعة والشمولية. واليوم، هناك إدراك واسع النطاق للتهديد الذي يشكله التوسع الروسي المزعزع للاستقرار في أفريقيا على حلف الناتو وأعضائه والمنطقة الأفريقية.
Why they left: The causes and implications of the Russian peacekeepers’ withdrawal from Karabakh
On April 17, Russian and Azerbaijani officials confirmed that the Russian peacekeeping forces deployed in Karabakh since November 2020 had begun pulling out from the region. The reasons behind the decision remain a matter of intense debate; but it is possible to draw several important conclusions from its timing and consequences.
As Armenia gradually reorients toward the West, Azerbaijan faces its own geopolitical choice
In early April, a highly publicized trilateral meeting involving the United States, the European Union, and Armenia was widely believed to mark a turning point in Yerevan’s relationship with the West. If it comes to pass, it will present Baku with its own critical decision: whether to abandon multi-vectorism and more fully align with Russia or the West.
Sweeping the minefield: The case for a NATO Black Sea Fleet
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the threat of sea mines to maritime traffic in the region has become exponentially more acute. The Turkish-Romanian-Bulgarian trilateral minesweeping mission is a welcome sign of regional willingness to cooperate in this space and could, with the right incentives and sufficient political will, open the door to the establishment of a NATO Black Sea Fleet.
Azerbaijan and COP29: An opportunity or a challenge?
Azerbaijan will host COP29 at the end of this year. Being selected to host the most important international climate event is a major achievement for the South Caucasus country, though the spotlight it brings will come with its own challenges due to Azerbaijan’s poor human rights record and worsening relations with the West.
Opinion: Wake up, West! Putin can gain upper hand in Ukraine in ‘24 if we do nothing
The European Union just approved membership talks with Kyiv; that’s symbolically important.
But the EU’s postponement of critical military assistance is an alarm bell.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says to prepare for bad news this winter.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suggests support for Ukraine may be crumbling across Europe.
And there’s faltering confidence in America, as Europeans are beginning to ask whether the strategic interests of the United States end at its border with Mexico.
Iran sees lucrative markets across the Black Sea region. It also sees an opportunity to expand strategic cooperation with Russia. And there’s just a chance that America will turn inward in 2025.
It’s all dangerous. To get the picture, start by connecting the dots.
The war in Gaza as a major test of China’s Middle East peace diplomacy
China has long sought to brand itself as a “neutral” player and force for peace in the Middle East and elsewhere, willing and able to talk to “all sides.” Beijing’s nascent ambition to play the role of peacemaker and its potential to shape regional events was on display when it succeeded last March in brokering the détente between Riyadh and Tehran. The Israel-Hamas war offers no such low-hanging fruit. On the contrary, it poses a major test of China’s Middle East peace diplomacy — and an opportunity to examine some of our own, perhaps faulty assumptions.
With Russia’s future uncertain, Turkey and the West need each other
Prigozhin’s coup was a serious warning sign that should prompt Turkey to cool ties with Russia and rebuild its relationship with the West. Yet today, Turkey and the West look at each other in terms of problems not solutions. While the political risks of reengagement are high for both sides, the potential rewards are well worth the effort needed to overcome them.
Nagorno Karabakh offers the US a chance to make new friends and weaken old enemies
The latest war over Nagorno Karabakh lasted a single day, ending on Sept. 20. It is the third war over the region disputed between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the last three and a half decades.
But this time, it seems there was really only one party to the conflict. Armenia stayed out, leaving it to the Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh to surrender.
A hundred thousand people have fled to Armenia, roughly 80 percent of the Karabakh population. What’s more, Armenia’s most powerful allies, Iran and Russia, appear to be distracted and marginally engaged.
NATO membership for Ukraine: The only lasting deterrence against future Russian aggression
As important as it is for Ukraine to work with individual partners and receive their long-term support, the key security guarantor for Ukraine can only be NATO and its Article V umbrella. No arrangement other than full NATO membership will entirely remove the threat of a Russian re-invasion, at least so long as Putin remains in power.
