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Gönül Tol is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), where she focuses on Turkish politics, US-Turkey relations and regional dynamics in the Middle East.

A frequent commentator, Dr. Tol has written extensively on Turkish domestic and foreign policy for publications such as Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, Foreign Policy, and The Financial Times. Her articles include “Turkey Is Now a Full-Blown Autocracy” in Foreign Affairs (March 2025), “The Indispensable Erdogan” in The New York Times and “Erdogan Sees Nothing But Opportunity in Syria” in The Financial Times (December 2024).

She is the author of Erdogan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria (Oxford University Press, 2023).

She holds a PhD and MA from Florida International University, and a BA from Middle East Technical University.

She is a native Turkish speaker.

The Latest from Gönül Tol

تصفية حسب
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2020 Year in Review
  • تعليق
  • 2020 Year in Review

    A look back at the year’s most important developments with analysis from Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, Gerald Feierstein, Gonul Tol, Jonathan M. Winer, Khaled Elgindy, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Grace Wermenbol, Syed Mohammad Ali, Robert S. Ford, and Khaldoun Khelil.

    Election 2020: The Future of U.S.-Black Sea Relations
  • التحليل
  • Election 2020: The Future of U.S.-Black Sea Relations

    In Frontier Europe Initiative’s new briefing book, entitled Election 2020: The Future of Black Sea-U.S. Relations, MEI scholars and external contributors identify key issues across the region, highlight U.S. interests at stake, and provide policy insights and recommendations for the path forward. The pieces in this book serve as a contribution to the broader discussion about the challenges and opportunities for U.S. policy in the region

    October 21, 2020

    Erdogan’s two-man rule
    Photo by Murat Kula/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • التحليل
  • Erdogan’s two-man rule

    For those following Turkey, there is no doubt about who calls the shots. From the economy and landscape to the arts and sports, everything reflects the will and vision of one man: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. To his supporters and many of his detractors, he is invincible and answers to no one but God. In reality, however, Erdogan has become increasingly reliant on Devlet Bahceli, the head of the hard-right MHP, who is playing a growing role in shaping his policies. And as Erdogan loses ground in the polls, Bahceli’s sway only increases.

    Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy in the Middle East
  • التحليل
  • Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy in the Middle East

    In a new briefing book released ahead of the U.S. elections in November, entitled Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy in the Middle East, MEI scholars lay out key issues across the region, highlight the U.S. interests at stake, and provide policy insights and recommendations for the path forward. 

    Erdogan pulls a rabbit out of his hat with Black Sea gas find, but is it all it seems?
    Photo by Mustafa Kamaci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • التحليل
  • Erdogan pulls a rabbit out of his hat with Black Sea gas find, but is it all it seems?

    “God has opened the door to unprecedented wealth for us,” said an enthusiastic Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he announced that Turkey had made its biggest-ever discovery of natural gas on Aug. 21. He promised that gas from the 320-billion-cubic-meter deep-sea find would reach consumers in 2023, but industry experts are skeptical and have raised questions about the feasibility of the discovery.

    Are Turkey and Russia bracing for conflict in the South Caucasus?
  • التحليل
  • Are Turkey and Russia bracing for conflict in the South Caucasus?

    On July 12, the Armenian and the Azerbaijani armed forces started a border skirmish. Fighting went on for several days, leaving at least 16 dead in its wake. Remarkably enough, the two sides are facing off outside the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, the usual flashpoint. This time around the flare-up took place well to the north, where Armenia’s Tavush region meets Azerbaijan’s Tovuz district. It is little wonder then that the crisis caught Turkey’s attention.