After over a decade of division between rival factions in eastern and western Libya, the Trump administration has put forward a plan to unite the two sides through a power-sharing agreement. Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Jonathan M. Winer to unpack the details of this proposal and its potential consequences for the Libyan people. Winer, who served as United States Special Envoy for Libya, offers analysis of the plan’s viability, the response of various actors on the ground, and whether it can stabilize the country and help resolve its deep-seated challenges.
Libya’s Fragile Equilibrium: Succession Risk and Energy Stability
Libya’s stability has taken on renewed strategic importance as the impact of the US and Israeli war with Iran reverberates through global energy markets. Sustaining existing Libyan oil production depends on a governing arrangement capable of keeping ports open, pipelines flowing, and revenues distributed without triggering conflict.
The question facing international oil companies is not whether Libya has oil and gas to develop. It does. The question is whether the country’s current political, economic, and security conditions allow that potential to be converted into reliable returns — and whether near-term changes could alter that calculation.
التحرك بحذر على رمال متحركة: تقييم نهج بايدن في سياسة الشرق الأوسط، 2021-2023
يقدم هذا التقرير تقييماً مؤقتاً لاستراتيجية إدارة بايدن الشاملة تجاه الشرق الأوسط، ويبحث الفرص والمخاطر الاستراتيجية للسياسة الأمريكية في المنطقة بشكل عام.
بعد بريغوزين: مستقبل فاغنر وأنشطة المنطقة الرمادية الروسية في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا
نظرًا لوجود مجموعة فاغنر العسكرية الراسخ في سوريا وليبيا والسودان، فإن القضاء على قيادتها العليا سيكون له تداعيات خطيرة على نفوذ روسيا في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا. من غير المرجح أن يغادر المتعاقدون العسكريون التابعون لفاغنر، لأنهم يحرسون منشآت نفطية وتعدينية ذات قيمة استراتيجية؛ ولكن من المرجح أن يتم دمجهم بسرعة في القوات المسلحة الروسية النظامية.
Libya’s ongoing debate over the role of political parties
Libya’s political players have grappled with how to build a political party culture since the country held its first post-Gadhafi elections in 2012. Under Moammar Gadhafi, political organizing was banned. Decades of regime propaganda against outlawed opposition movements made Libyans suspicious of political groups and parties.
The Libyan Banking Sector: A Microcosm of Global Enduring Disorder
This paper investigates the ongoing Libya conflict through the Enduring Disorder paradigm, focusing on the financial and banking sectors, honing in on stakeholder perceptions of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), its transparency/opacity, and the “narrative wars” over who is to blame for, and who benefits from, Libya’s economic dysfunction, the lack of an annual budget, and the current lack of a quorum on the CBL board.
On Sept. 2, the United Nations appointed a new special envoy for Libya, Senegalese diplomat Abdoulaye Bathily. But to have any chance of success, Bathily will need to reach out to local-level Libyan leaders who oppose the status quo preferred by Libya’s national politicians.
What’s next for Libya’s Great Man-Made River Project?
The Middle East and North Africa are well known for their severe water scarcity. The region’s lack of water resources is the result of many factors, including the harsh climate, intense heat, high evaporation rates, and increasing population growth. Libya is no exception in this regard. According to the World Resources Institute, it ranks 6th among the top countries worldwide facing “extremely high baseline” water stress.
Industry analysts widely agree that OPEC+ production levels are currently well below the members’ authorized quotas and that any production increases will mainly be met by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The challenges facing the group are daunting, but if met, seven major OPEC countries could feasibly raise crude oil production while utilizing existing infrastructure, significantly narrowing the global demand-supply gap.
