Research & Commentary Results

Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to examine the dramatic escalation between Israel and Iran following Israel’s targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, infrastructure, and senior IRGC officials. Vatanka discusses how the Iranian regime is responding, the risk of wider regional conflict, and whether the current campaign could mark the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic.

يعد الحفاظ على الأمن الغذائي في شمال أفريقيا تحديًا معقدًا ومتطورًا، يتأثر بالمناخ الجاف في المنطقة ومحدودية الموارد المائية وقلة الأراضي الصالحة للزراعة. استجابةً لذلك، تركزت جهود الحكومات والمزارعين والمنظمات غير الحكومية الرامية إلى تعزيز الأمن الغذائي على اعتماد ممارسات زراعية قادرة على التكيف مع تغير المناخ، وتقنيات ري فعالة، واستراتيجيات مستدامة لإدارة الأراضي. على الرغم من هذه الجهود، لا يزال الأمن الغذائي في شمال أفريقيا هشًا بسبب الضغوط النظامية على النظم الزراعية الناجمة عن تغير المناخ وندرة المياه وزيادة الطلب في الأسواق.

توجه يوليا جوجا، زميلة أولى في معهد الشرق الأوسط (MEI)، تحذيراً حاداً ومناسباً من منح روسيا دوراً مباشراً في المفاوضات بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران. فبدلاً من أن تلعب موسكو دور الوسيط المحايد، فإنها تريد الاستفادة من هذه اللحظة لإعادة تشكيل ميزان القوى في الشرق الأوسط. من الاجتماعات في مسقط إلى توثيق التحالفات مع طهران وبكين، تكشف جوجا كيف أن دبلوماسية بوتين لا تهدف إلى تحقيق السلام بقدر ما تهدف إلى تعزيز نفوذ روسيا في مواجهة الولايات المتحدة. وينبغي على واشنطن أن تولي اهتمامًا وثيقًا لهذا الأمر.

Iran appears to be reorienting its approach to diplomatic engagement with its neighbors and the West by prioritizing the economic benefits of cooperation. A possible withdrawal of support for the Houthis is the latest significant potential outcome of Iran’s shifting stance. The following are five factors to watch for as a Tehran under duress reformulates its policies.

Ukraine faces a pivotal year in its fight against Russian aggression — and for its democratic future. With fears mounting that President Trump could abandon peace talks with Kyiv and Moscow, the risk grows that US disengagement could tip the balance toward Russia and fracture the global democratic order.

Following seven years of diplomatic deadlock, Washington and Tehran have resumed nuclear negotiations — and for the first time in years, there are signs of real momentum.

Alex Vatanka, MEI Senior Fellow and author of The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran, joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to analyze the current round of talks, the technical issues under discussion, and the political stakes on both sides. He explores Iran’s economic and domestic pressures, US red lines, and the role of key players like Israel, China, and Oman in shaping the negotiations.

President Donald Trump wants a deal with Iran. Russia has offered to mediate. But an agreement negotiated by Moscow would turn the Middle East upside down as well as negate years of Western efforts to impede and deter further aggression by the Kremlin.

On April 12, the United States and Iran wrapped up their first round of renewed diplomatic talks in Muscat, with round two set for April 19, in Rome. In the interim, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is in Moscow to coordinate with the Russians. But the real breakthrough will not come from nuclear talks alone — it will require confronting the region’s most explosive fault line: the Iranian-Israeli standoff. Russia claims it can help.

This article is published as part of the Perry World House workshop “U.S.-Iran Relations Under Trump 2.0: Lessons Learned and Likely Scenarios.”

Climate variability is becoming a key factor in shaping economic stability, agricultural productivity, and water security worldwide. Periods of prolonged drought and sudden shifts in precipitation can have far-reaching consequences, particularly for countries that rely heavily on natural water sources for farming and economic growth. As weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable, there is a need to navigate both the immediate impacts of climate change and the long-term strategies needed for climate resilience. Finding the right balance between short-term relief and sustainable adaptation is a fundamental challenge for economies dependent on agriculture and water availability. Nowhere is this more evident than in Morocco.

تشهد الدول المجاورة لأفغانستان عملية إعادة هيكلة جوهرية لنظامها الأمني. وتواصل الدول الإقليمية الرئيسية، وهي باكستان وأفغانستان وإيران والصين، تعديل خططها الدفاعية وشراكاتها الأمنية لمواجهة التهديدات المتزايدة التي يشكلها الإرهاب المحلي والعابر للحدود. وفي الوقت نفسه، تبحث هذه الدول الأربع عن سبل جديدة لملء الفراغ الذي خلفه انسحاب الجيش الأمريكي من أفغانستان في جنوب آسيا.

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has provided several strategic opportunities for Iran to increase its foothold in the Greater Black Sea Region. A closer analysis of Iran’s deepening footprint there is necessary to inform how the next administration in Washington and the new European Commission can strengthen and better coordinate their policy responses.

Last month, the US electorate voted President-Elect Donald Trump back into the White House. His victory was seen by some experts as part of a global trend and a move towards anti-incumbency attitudes and populism. How will Trump’s rhetoric impact the United States domestically and internationally? Will he govern as a strongman during his second term? What can we expect to be different from his first term?

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

The Persian Gulf-Black Sea International Transport and Transit Corridor, which Tehran proposed eight years ago, remains relevant today in the context of strategic competition, as it offers Iran and participating countries an alternative trade route that bypasses traditional Western-dominated shipping lanes, potentially reshaping regional economic dynamics and geopolitical influence.