Jordan’s Economy Weathers Iran War’s Shocks and Finds New Opportunities
In the summer of 2003, King Abdullah II told Bloomberg Jordan sits “between Iraq and a hard place,” a play on words designed to describe the kingdom’s challenging environment to an American audience amid the US-led Iraq war to the east and the lingering Palestinian-Israeli conflict to the west. Jordan is grappling with a much “harder place” today.
Gulf Political Economy: The Cost of Accommodating Iran
There may be no near-term resolution to the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The cease-fire and memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on June 18 have broken down, there is little diplomatic engagement, and new flare-ups in early September indicate a further round of escalation. Gulf states may have no choice but to protect their assets and populations while trying to deter Iran by finding mechanisms of both containment and accommodation.
Gulf Energy Markets: The Region’s Edge Will Survive — At a Price
Across the Gulf, views differ widely on how the Iran war can and should end, and what the region will look like once it does. Yet on the crisis over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the view is near-unanimous that a repeat is not only possible but likely. That expectation, more than any single incident over the past year, is becoming a major driver of decision-making in industry and policy circles alike.
Under current, highly unpredictable market conditions, it is unreasonable for OPEC to make sharp movements to saturate the oil market or withdraw a significant number of barrels from it to meet divergent Western interests of lowering prices and punishing Russia.
Catastrophic floods: Understanding the gravity of Pakistan’s health and food crises
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently warned that his country needs “an infinite amount of funding” to support flood relief efforts. Torrential rains and heavy flooding have killed more than 1,550 people and displaced millions. Compounding the challenge are Pakistan’s intensifying food and health crises, as flood-borne diseases surge and nearly two-thirds of the country’s food basket has been destroyed.
Technology represents one potentially fruitful area where the I2U2 member states — Israel, India, the U.S. and the UAE — could cooperate together, expand their format to include more countries, deliver tangible results, and avoid agitating other global and regional powers.
Morocco’s green mobility revolution: The geo-economic factors driving its rise as an electric vehicle manufacturing hub
Rabat’s recent announcement that it would soon sign an agreement for the construction of a “gigafactory” to make electric vehicle (EV) batteries has placed Morocco in pole position to become a green mobility leader in the Middle East and North Africa.
Iran-Venezuela relations: Presidents, postures, and pressures
In June, Iran and Venezuela signed a 20-year road map on cooperation. As much as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has wanted to differentiate himself from his predecessor, his Venezuela policy has so far closely resembled that of Hassan Rouhani during the latter’s second term.
مثل الولايات المتحدة وأوروبا، شهد المغرب بدوره ارتفاعًا في معدلات التضخم مؤخرًا، مسجلة معدلا وصل 6.4 في المائة خلال يوليو 2022، وهو تضخم قادم من الخارج، يسمى ب”التضخم المستورد”. فبفضل سياسته النقدية المتينة، تمكن البلد من إبقاء التضخم عند الحد الأدنى في الماضي، لكن الوضع تغير الآن، كما أن السياسة النقدية المحلية غير قادرة على مواجهة العوامل الخارجية التي أدت إلى الارتفاع الأخير في الأسعار.
Like the U.S. and Europe, Morocco, too, has seen inflation rates rise recently. Morocco was able to keep inflation to a minimum over the past decade, but now things have changed and domestic monetary policy seems unable to address the external factors driving the recent rise.
Gulf economies should use the available fiscal space to ensure a soft landing
After achieving respectable growth in 2021, the GCC member states now face the risk of monetary (over) tightening due to the need to follow the U.S Federal Reserve’s interest rate adjustments. These increases are not warranted, however, as the GCC economies currently face relatively moderate inflation. Instead, they should use the available fiscal space to mitigate the negative fallout of monetary tightening and make greater use of PPPs for future infrastructure development.
Afghanistan adrift one year after the Taliban takeover
Even prior to al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s death in a CIA drone strike on July 31, the last few months have mostly underscored the Taliban’s global isolation and the anguish of the Afghan people. A year on from the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in August 2021, no foreign government has officially recognized the regime.
Egypt’s President Sisi makes a comeback on the world stage with a three-stop European tour
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi’s recent, six-day European tour, which took him to Germany, Serbia, and France, aimed to boost his image and status as a central player on the world stage despite widespread criticism of his regime’s human rights record.
Erdoğan in Tehran, but Turkey and Iran have plenty of mistrust to overcome
Iranian-Turkish trade and economic cooperation has been the all-important platform on which otherwise often tense bilateral relations could survive. With trade and economic ties now weakening, their geopolitical rivalry could sharply re-intensify.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
