How Lebanon’s authorities can keep the Iran war from engulfing the country
Today’s decision taken by the Lebanese government — to declare all of Hizballah’s security and military activities illegal — is a landmark development. But how the government and the Lebanese Armed Forces implement this directive now that a new round of attacks has actually taken place will be the ultimate test of their credibility.
As the third and seemingly decisive round of talks in Geneva concluded, the Trump administration had avoided diplomatic deadlock — but only by narrowing negotiations to the nuclear file.
Against the backdrop of one of the largest US military deployments to the Middle East since 2003, MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to assess the situation inside Iran on the eve of potential war. Weeks after the Islamic Republic’s brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters and as negotiations with the US fail to find common ground, Donald Trump is reportedly weighing options for military action against Iran. Vatanka breaks down the regime’s strategic calculus, the current dynamics of Iran’s opposition movement, and the likely domestic political consequences of a military strike.
How Iran, China, and Russia Use the Shadow Fleet to Evade US Sanctions
Crude oil legally sanctioned by the United States and its allies today makes up an estimated 18% of global tanker capacity, or 6-7% of total unrefined petroleum flows — shares that have been growing. Increased pressure on Russian exports and US intervention in Venezuela have further constrained Russian flows and temporarily removed Venezuela, the smallest sanctioned producer, from the market. Iranian exports, however, remain largely untouched.
February talks between Saudi Arabia and Turkey signaled the emergence of a pragmatic regional order grounded in economic complementarity, defense cooperation, and shared anxieties about instability.
Brian sits down with Holly Dagres, Libitzky Family Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to discuss Iranian public opinion and protest movements. Dagres, who was born in Los Angeles and moved to Iran at age thirteen, offers a rare insider perspective on the views and aspirations of the Iranian people. The conversation explores the formative experiences of her teenage years in Iran, the roots of the country’s powerful women’s movements, the power of youth voices, and US policy toward Iran.
Syria’s Path Toward Stabilization — and How the US Can Help
After more than 50 years of brutal dictatorial rule and 13 years of civil conflict, the first year of Syria’s transition has been complex, imperfect, and fraught with difficulties. However, despite some significant challenges, Syria is clearly stabilizing. To sustain this progress, the United States must remain engaged.
Syria’s transition still faces a formidable array of challenges — from the implementation of the deal to integrate the SDF into state structures and the military, to the economy, reconstruction, transitional justice and accountability, refugee returns, and geopolitical tensions with Israel. However, a steady and significant decline in violence offers perhaps the most encouraging and consequential metric.
Whenever Iran is shaken by nationwide protests, as it was just last month, analysts and activists are consumed by the same two questions: will the country’s regime finally fall, and what will come next if it does? Answers abound.
From the Middle East to West Asia: Redefining America’s Global Strategy
MEI Senior Fellow Mohammed Soliman joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss his new book, West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East. The book argues that it is time for the United States to move decisively away from nation-building and focus instead on order-building, outlining a framework for a new regional order that links Europe to the Indo-Pacific. Soliman also shares how he conceived of the core ideas behind his book and explains why his thesis is especially relevant in today’s geopolitical, economic, and technological landscape.
Integration or conflict in northeastern Syria? Ten key points to consider
After 10 months of US-mediated talks failed to achieve an integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces into Syria’s transitional state, hostilities erupted in early January. US diplomacy stepped in to try to calm tensions and force through the integration of the SDF’s Kurdish core into the Syrian state. Here are 10 key takeaways and indications of where things could go next.
The question facing international oil companies is not whether Libya has oil and gas to develop. It does. The question is whether the country’s current political, economic, and security conditions allow that potential to be converted into reliable returns — and whether near-term changes could alter that calculation.
Despite escalating conflicts, sanctions, and strategic rivalry across key producing regions, the global oil market increasingly behaves less like a system gripped by scarcity fears and more like one struggling to absorb abundance.
Breaking News Brief: Damascus and the Syrian Kurds Come to Blows
MEI Senior Fellow Charles Lister joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to unpack the latest developments in Syria, as a tenuous cease-fire takes hold after several days of intense fighting between the Syrian army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Their discussion explores the drivers of the conflict, the prospects for a lasting deal that would integrate the SDF into the Syrian military, as well as the role and perspective of key external actors, including the US, Turkey, and Israel.
