Research & Commentary Results

This is a special edition of the MENA Energy Recap — a quarterly review of key energy developments that took place in the region from January through March of 2026 and what they signal in the months ahead. For Q1-26, the recap considers some of the long-term implications of the ongoing war in the region, which have caused the largest energy supply disruption in history, and what lessons these events hold for both near- and long-term energy dynamics in both the Middle East and the wider world.

In the early hours of Sunday, May 3, Jordanian F-16 fighter jets crossed into Syrian airspace and launched strikes on at least six locations in the southern province of Sweida. In a statement issued hours later, Jordan’s military said that “Operation Jordanian Deterrence” had targeted “factories, facilities and warehouses used by trafficking groups as launch points for smuggling operations into Jordan.”

The Middle East is both central to key United States interests and prone to instability. Yet US national security and defense strategic guidance has struggled to account for the unique demands of the region. Calls for strategic divestiture from the region have grown in prominence among analysts and policymakers alike in recent years.

Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Amb. (ret.) Robert S. Ford to examine what is at stake for Iraq in the Iran war. The only country to have been hit by both sides, Iraq is caught in the middle of a regional conflict, with the local Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) carrying out attacks on American interests and personnel — and the US responding. This escalation comes at a period of internal political transition in Iraq, which has been locked in negotiations to form a new government since the November 2025 elections. Ford, who served as Deputy and later Acting Ambassador in Baghdad from 2008 until 2010, unpacks how Iraq is navigating the current moment, how the Kurdistan region fits into this equation, and what this all means for the future of US-Iraqi relations.

When the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran a month ago, the Middle East was plunged into debilitating conflict. Nevertheless, Syria has remarkably just completed its most stable month in 15 years. Damascus and its international partners must capitalize on this opportunity.

China’s expanding role in the Middle East is often framed as geopolitical rivalry with other global powers, including the United States, Russia, India, and others; but this lens obscures the strategic subtlety of Beijing’s approach.

With the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil production from Iraq’s south in free fall, Baghdad’s failure to maximize the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline is no longer a policy dispute. It is a national emergency.

Once again, Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, have dragged Lebanon into a war. But there are differences today. These differences are a cause for hope.

Brian is joined by Dana Stroul, Director of Research and Shelly and Michael Kassen Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to examine US objectives in the Middle East in the midst of the ongoing war between the US, Israel, and Iran. Drawing on her extensive experience in US policymaking, most notably as the Pentagon’s top civilian official responsible for the Middle East from 2021 to 2023, Dana offers an insider’s perspective on this strategic moment. Together, Dana and Brian unpack the rapidly developing situation in Iran, the fragility of the ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, the shifting landscape in Syria after Assad, and the United States’ role in a region that may be on the cusp of transformation.

After more than 50 years of brutal dictatorial rule and 13 years of civil conflict, the first year of Syria’s transition has been complex, imperfect, and fraught with difficulties. However, despite some significant challenges, Syria is clearly stabilizing. To sustain this progress, the United States must remain engaged.

Dramatic developments in Syria have delivered a major blow to Kurdish ambitions for self-rule. In a rapid offensive, Damascus moved into northeast Syria, forcing the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) out and effectively dismantling the autonomous region the Kurds had built during the civil war.

Syria’s transition still faces a formidable array of challenges — from the implementation of the deal to integrate the SDF into state structures and the military, to the economy, reconstruction, transitional justice and accountability, refugee returns, and geopolitical tensions with Israel. However, a steady and significant decline in violence offers perhaps the most encouraging and consequential metric.

Trying to capture US President Donald Trump’s proudly unpredictable approach to foreign policy in fixed policy documents is inherently difficult. Surprise, leverage and improvisation are not bugs in Mr Trump’s world view; they are features. Yet the administration has now attempted this exercise twice: with the release of the National Security Strategy last December and the National Defence Strategy this January.