The Coming Debate Over the US Military Presence in the Gulf
The war with Iran is hardly over, but the debate over the shape and nature of the post-conflict American posture in the Gulf region is just beginning. Undoubtedly, how the war ends will affect how the United States adjusts its role. While this debate is still in its early stages, something of a conventional wisdom is already developing in policy circles that could seriously compromise American influence in the Middle East.
This report explores maritime security conditions in the Mediterranean and the evolving US engagement in the region. As critical infrastructure becomes increasingly vulnerable to sabotage, freedom of navigation is undermined by conflict, and energy disputes generate tension, US policy focus on the region has become fragmented and disengaged. The authors call for a sustained American role to strengthen maritime domain awareness, allied coordination, infrastructure protection, and the capacity to respond when Mediterranean crises affect US and transatlantic interests.
Curb Your Enthusiasm: Why the Midterms Might Not Change Much in US Middle East Policy
With less than a week before the midterm elections in the United States, the spotlight is on the economy and cultural divides. US foreign policy remains mostly on the sidelines, but this year’s inconclusive Iran war and its effect on America’s economy have shaped the broader political environment in this electoral cycle.
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
Rafsanjani Had Urged Khamenei to Release Top Political Prisoners
One Iranian opposition-leaning site, Kaleme, has reported that the recently deceased Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani had strongly urged Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to release Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi from house arrest. “These are elderly people and if anything happens to them [while under house arrest] then the regime is responsible,” Rafsanjani is quoted to have said to Khamenei.
New Poll Shows Support for Rouhani Sinking ahead of Elections
A new opinion poll shows that public support for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is plummeting as Iranians are increasingly dissatisfied with the government’s handling of economic and democracy-related issues.
Ukrainian officials have confirmed that a shipment of missile components sized at a Kieve airport was destined for Iran. According to a report by IHS Jane’s, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (DPSU) said its personnel found 17 boxes with no accompanying documents that contained components for a Fagot anti-tank guided missile system. The DPSU also released photos of components from 9P135-series ground launching systems found on the Iran-bound airliner.
The once powerful Iranian reformist parties are today on the political margins. While they continue to enjoy significant support from voters at election times – which was last evident in the 2016 parliamentary elections when reformists secured about 41% of the vote – the public no longer seems to believe reformists can instill serious reform in Iran. In particular, the Iranian youth of today, which used to be the bedrock of support for reformists, is noticeably disillusioned with the political process in the country.
Fars News, an outlet that is linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), reported that ethnic Chechen forces from Russia are now acting as police units in the Syrian city of Aleppo. The outlet reported that Chechens had also from December 2016 been deployed “to serve in the military police to protect Russia’s Khmeimim air base in Syria.”
Tehran’s fears of losing out influence during the ongoing peace talks on Syria in Astana were evident even in the makeup of the Iranian delegation. According to Iranian sources, Tehran had been compelled to dispatch a top military figure with extensive experience in Syria in order not to be eclipsed by Russian and Turkish militaries.
Iran, Russia and Turkey agreed earlier today to establish a trilateral mechanism to enforce the fragile cessation of hostilities in Syria. After a two-day meeting in Kazakhstan sponsored by Moscow, the trio issued a joint statement that called for “a political process based on the implementation of the UN Security Council resolution 2254” to end the Syrian civil war.
Iran-Backed Militia Units Continue West Mosul Operations
A senior Iraqi official has said that the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) will take part in the “liberation” of western Mosul. “The popular mobilization forces in Nineveh Province will participate in the liberation operation of Tal Afar,” Iraqi National Security Advisor Falih al-Fayyad said in an interview with Iranian state-run Al-Alam News Network published on January 23.
Iran Stresses Saudi Exclusion from Syria Peace Process
Earlier today, Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed to jointly monitor the fragile cessation of hostilities in Syria and pledged to work for a political solution to end the Syrian civil war. But while Moscow and Ankara are trying to broaden the scope of future discussions on Syria, Tehran continues to oppose the inclusion of the United States and regional Sunni states in the process.
Monday Briefing: Middle East Reactions to Trump's Inauguration
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Gerald Feierstein, and Charles Lister provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including U.S.-Middle East relations in the new Trump administration, the view of Trump’s inauguration from Tehran, the Gulf’s ‘wait and see’ approach to the new administration, and Russia’s public position on Syria talks at the outset of talks in Astana.
Iranian Delegation Reportedly Visited Helmand to Deliver Weapons to Taliban
Afghan officials say Iran has recently sent a delegation to meet with Taliban commanders in the restive province of Helmand. On January 23, Hayatullah Hayat, the governor of Helmand, told Afghanistan’s 1TV channel that the National Directorate of Security was probing allegations that the Iranian team also delivered weapons to the Taliban militants in Helmand’s Garmsir District.
Iran Upholds Five-Year Jail Term for British-Iranian Mother
On January 22, the Iranian Judiciary confirmed that a Revolutionary Court in Tehran had upheld a five-year jail term for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian charity worker incarcerated in Iran’s notorious Evin Prison. Judiciary Spokesman Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i did not make public the specific charges against her, but called her a “security convict.”
تُعد المجلة الرئيسية لمعهد الشرق الأوسط أقدم مطبوعة محكّمة مكرّسة لدراسة الشرق الأوسط الحديث، وتغطي المجلة الرئيسية في المعهد السياسة والمجتمع والثقافة في المنطقة.
