The Coming Debate Over the US Military Presence in the Gulf
The war with Iran is hardly over, but the debate over the shape and nature of the post-conflict American posture in the Gulf region is just beginning. Undoubtedly, how the war ends will affect how the United States adjusts its role. While this debate is still in its early stages, something of a conventional wisdom is already developing in policy circles that could seriously compromise American influence in the Middle East.
This report explores maritime security conditions in the Mediterranean and the evolving US engagement in the region. As critical infrastructure becomes increasingly vulnerable to sabotage, freedom of navigation is undermined by conflict, and energy disputes generate tension, US policy focus on the region has become fragmented and disengaged. The authors call for a sustained American role to strengthen maritime domain awareness, allied coordination, infrastructure protection, and the capacity to respond when Mediterranean crises affect US and transatlantic interests.
Curb Your Enthusiasm: Why the Midterms Might Not Change Much in US Middle East Policy
With less than a week before the midterm elections in the United States, the spotlight is on the economy and cultural divides. US foreign policy remains mostly on the sidelines, but this year’s inconclusive Iran war and its effect on America’s economy have shaped the broader political environment in this electoral cycle.
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
The current Syrian ceasefire effort of Russia and Turkey is a Russian attempt to impose a final political defeat on the rebels and a Turkish attempt to focus on eliminating the Kurds in Syria militarily and politically. Turkey is also intensely lobbying the new U.S. administration for help. The ceasefire deal rests on the barbarism of Russia and the Assad regime and the feckless response of the West. This is the peace Rome imposed on the prostrate Carthage. The unanimous UNSC vote endorsing the Russian/Turkish proposal enshrines one side’s brutality and the other’s moral vacuum.
During the January 10 mass rallies of the funeral of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, crowds in Tehran repeatedly chanted “Death to Russia” and “Russian Embassy is the den of spies.” Those chanting are supporters of the popular political opposition, which continue to be repressed by the security services.
Iran’s Quds Force Commander Qassem Suleimani attended the funeral of Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and praised the former Iranian president’s anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiments and positions.
The generals of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) have been busy mourning the death of Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. That is at least the public show they have put on. Since his death, several top IRGC commanders have hailed Rafsanjani as a pillar of the Islamic Republic and a hero in the so-called struggle against Western powers. Such public show of grief, however, is hardly convincing. In recent weeks prior to his death, IRGC-run media and personalities had unleashed a barrage of new attacks against Rafsanjani.
Iran Continues Efforts to Subvert Saudi Arabia from within
In fresh evidence that the government of Iran continues its efforts to undermine Saudi stability and security from within, a Saudi court has convicted a Saudi businessman of plotting with the government of Iran to instigate sectarian strife and threaten Saudi social stability, according to a report in al-Sharq al-Awsat.
Iran’s Oil Ministry has announced that two new energy contracts have been signed with Iraq. In particular, Tehran is looking to export natural gas to Iraq. Energy is only part of the equation.
Rafsanjani’s Funeral Turns into Anti-Regime Protest
Today’s funeral for an influential Iranian leader turned into a protest rally against the regime. It was reminiscent of the demonstrations by the so-called Green Movement that rocked Iran after the country’s controversial 2009 presidential elections.
January 5, 2017 – Eric Trager, Esther K. Wagner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, joins host Paul Salem to discuss his new book, “Arab Fall: How the Muslim Brotherhood Won and Lost Egypt in 891 Days.”
Iran Steps up Efforts to Expand Its Influence in Lebanon
On January 6, a high-level Iranian parliamentary delegation visited Beirut and pledged to provide military aid to the Lebanese army. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Iranian Parliament’s Committee for Foreign Policy and National Security, said the Islamic Republic was “determined to arm Lebanon’s army,” but added that the implementation of the plan was contingent upon Beirut’s approval.
Iranian Support for Taliban Alarms Afghan Officials
Afghan officials say the Iranian government has deepened its ties with the Taliban leadership and increasingly funds, shelters and arms terrorists fighting in Afghanistan, particularly in the three western provinces bordering Iran. They allege that the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and its secretive Quds Force operatives recruit militants from across Afghanistan and run terrorist training camps for them inside the Iranian territory – further fueling the insurgency and complicating stabilization efforts in the war-ravaged country.
Rafsanjani’s Death Weakens Rouhani’s Reelection Prospects
News Brief: On January 8, former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani died of a heart attack in Tehran at the age of 82. An influential cleric and politician, Rafsanjani was the chairman of Iran’s Expediency Council, a body that mediates between the parliament and the hardline watchdog Guardian Council.
As Iranian leaders were mourning the death of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a dangerous confrontation was brewing between the US and Iranian naval forces near the Strait of Hormuz. Fars News Agency, an Iranian outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), reported the incident but did not provide details.
“There will be no peace in Afghanistan without Iran.” This was a remark a top Iranian diplomat made last week in an expansive interview with the country’s media.
Corruption Charges Roil Tehran and Threaten Rouhani's Reelection
According to Transparency International, the Islamic Republic of Iran has a serious corruption problem. It ranks 130 out of 168 countries surveyed. Previously such international assessments rarely made headlines among the Iranian population who are busy trying to make a living. But the issue of large-scale institutional corruption involving top regime figures has recently exploded as a daily topic of conversation.
Rouhani's Special Advisor Warns Against “American Islam”
News Brief: In a blistering attack, Ali Younesi, President Hassan Rouhani’s special envoy for minority rights, portrayed all the conflicts of the Middle East as a result of Western plots. “There is no other way but regional cooperation to bring about border security and combat extremism,” Younesi said. He was particularly scornful toward the United States, the United Kingdom and Israel.
تُعد المجلة الرئيسية لمعهد الشرق الأوسط أقدم مطبوعة محكّمة مكرّسة لدراسة الشرق الأوسط الحديث، وتغطي المجلة الرئيسية في المعهد السياسة والمجتمع والثقافة في المنطقة.
