البحوث والتعليقات - معهد الشرق الأوسط

Trump’s South Caucasus Peacemaking Is His Most Successful, but It Remains Unfinished

Of all the fronts in President Trump’s peacemaking agenda, the South Caucasus has delivered the most concrete results. The August 2025 Washington Declaration, signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan and witnessed by Trump, marked an important step toward peace in the region. The two sides initialed a peace agreement and advanced plans to unblock regional connectivity, including through the establishment of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which would connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhijevan exclave through southern Armenia. Implementation of TRIPP has since made notable progress, but construction has yet to start. A breakthrough on those two tracks would, in turn, unlock Armenia–Türkiye normalization, transforming a long-fractured region into an area of trade and interdependence.

The Iran War Was Always About Regime Change

Wars don’t just end. They get interpreted, reinterpreted, and turned into strategic doctrine. That is what happened after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, a conflict that saw the United States back Tehran’s Iraqi adversaries. The war taught Tehran three lessons it never unlearned: that Washington wants the Islamic Republic gone, that Iran stands essentially alone in the world, and that it cannot survive a direct, overt fight with the U.S. and Israel.

Iran’s New War Cabinet Is Really an Old One

Within 48 hours this week, Iran filled six of the most important posts in its battered military and security establishment. Read together with the biographies and mandates behind them, the appointments show how Tehran is drawing lessons from successive wars and preparing for a prolonged period of insecurity, without proving it has abandoned negotiation.

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معلومات أساسية

جميع المعلومات الأساسية

Israeli Settlements in the West Bank

Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.

The Houthis

The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.

Turkish Foreign Policy

After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.

المدونات الصوتية

التركيز على الشرق الأوسط

البودكاست الأسبوعي الرائد لمعهد الشرق الأوسط حول السياسة الخارجية الأمريكية والقضايا السياسية والاجتماعية المعاصرة في الشرق الأوسط.

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إزالة الحافة من الشرق الأوسط

براين كاتوليس، زميل أول في معهد الشرق الأوسط كاتوليس يشارك الأصدقاء والزملاء وخبراء السياسة في محادثات غير رسمية حول أهم الأحداث في الشرق الأوسط.

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إعادة التفكير في الديمقراطية

زميل أول في معهد الشرق الأوسط غونول تول تستضيف كبار العلماء وقادة الفكر حول اتجاهات الديمقراطية العالمية وحالة النظام الدولي الليبرالي.

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الأحدث أولاً

Non-Oil Industries in the Persian Gulf

For decades the Arab Gulf states and members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — have seen their economic fortunes rise and fall with the demand for their chief export, oil. To shield themselves from the volatility of global oil markets, these states have sought to diversify their economies by investing in a host of non-oil industries, especially services, commerce, and manufacturing.

Southern Aspirations and Salih's Exasperation: The Looming Threat of Secession in South Yemen

Originally posted June 2009

Non-Oil Industries in the Persian Gulf Part 1

Originally posted on June 2009

Kill the Messengers: Yemen's 2009 Clampdown on the Press

Originally posted June 2009

Yemen Postpones Its April 2009 Parliamentary Elections

Originally posted June 2009

Politics in a Vacuum: The Yemeni Opposition's Dilemma

Originally published June 2009

Non-Oil Industries in the Persian Gulf Part 2

The six oil-producing monarchies of the Persian Gulf — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — are among the most important but also the most enigmatic societies to study.

The Consolidation of Gulf-Asia Relations: Washington Tuned In or Out of Touch?

Originally posted June 2009

Prospects for Iran's 2009 Presidential Elections

Iran’s political system has not yet developed stable party structures. Most parties are still loose coalitions of individuals and interest groups that combine their own interpretation of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s legacy with their personal interests. As party affiliation remains relatively weak, members of one party often have run as candidates for another party or are on several electoral lists. Similarly, unregistered parties or electoral platforms also field candidates for both presidential and parliamentary elections on an ad hoc basis.

Introduction to Discerning Yemen's Political Future

Originally posted June 2009

Introduction to The State of the Arts in the Middle East

Originally posted May 2009

Turkey's "Deep-State" and the Ergenekon Conundrum

Originally posted in April 2009.

After the Tehran Spring

Ten years ago, in the summer of 1998, I arrived in Tehran after an absence of more than two decades. Three vignettes describe some of what I experienced and why I decided to stay.

The Iranian Revolution 30 Years On

In assessing the progress of the revolution in Iran, it might be useful to recall how other revolutions of the 20th century fared at the 30-year interval. Using their commencement rather than the actual seizure of power as the baseline, the 30th anniversaries of major 20th century revolutions were 1940 for Mexico, 1947 for the Soviet Union, 1964 for China (using the “Long March” as the year), 1975 for Vietnam, 1983 for Cuba (dating its beginning with the attack on the Moncada Barracks), 1984 for Algeria, and 2008 for Nicaragua.

Back to the Future: Bazaar Strikes, Three Decades after the Iranian Revolution

This essay series examines the roles that community-based organizations (CBOs) have played as active participants in the process of “governing” megacities—whether in service delivery, risk mitigation, or the creation of

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الأبحاث والتعليقات

Trump’s South Caucasus Peacemaking Is His Most Successful, but It Remains Unfinished

The Iran War Was Always About Regime Change

Iran’s New War Cabinet Is Really an Old One

Additional Research & Commentary