After over a decade of division between rival factions in eastern and western Libya, the Trump administration has put forward a plan to unite the two sides through a power-sharing agreement. Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Jonathan M. Winer to unpack the details of this proposal and its potential consequences for the Libyan people. Winer, who served as United States Special Envoy for Libya, offers analysis of the plan’s viability, the response of various actors on the ground, and whether it can stabilize the country and help resolve its deep-seated challenges.
The Far Reach of the Iran War: Food Insecurity from North Africa to the Sahel
Within weeks of the Strait of Hormuz closure, fertilizer prices began to rise sharply. Tanker traffic through the strait, which handles one-third of the global fertilizer trade, fell by 90%. Across North Africa the impacts are multiplying, and this is having ripple effects for the Sahel in the south, adding to food price inflation, migration pressures, and the erosion of state legitimacy. The situation underscores how food security is a governance issue compounded by geopolitical crisis.
Battered but Still Standing, Egypt Tries to Weather the Economic Ravages of the Iran War
While Egypt is not in the direct line of fire in the US-Israeli war with Iran, its economy is acutely vulnerable to the conflict. In addition to the rising energy prices and shortages that have affected much of the world, it also struggled with issues that reflected its economy’s own underlying structural vulnerabilities.
Like the U.S. and Europe, Morocco, too, has seen inflation rates rise recently. Morocco was able to keep inflation to a minimum over the past decade, but now things have changed and domestic monetary policy seems unable to address the external factors driving the recent rise.
What’s next for Libya’s Great Man-Made River Project?
The Middle East and North Africa are well known for their severe water scarcity. The region’s lack of water resources is the result of many factors, including the harsh climate, intense heat, high evaporation rates, and increasing population growth. Libya is no exception in this regard. According to the World Resources Institute, it ranks 6th among the top countries worldwide facing “extremely high baseline” water stress.
Sisi’s call for dialogue cautiously welcomed by Egypt’s opposition
On Apr. 26, Egyptian President Sisi launched a call for political dialogue with all opposition parties except for the Muslim Brotherhood. Many opponents remain skeptical of the government’s recent change of heart. But some regime opponents have started being released from prison, and state media has again begun allowing critics of Sisi back on the air.
Egypt’s President Sisi makes a comeback on the world stage with a three-stop European tour
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi’s recent, six-day European tour, which took him to Germany, Serbia, and France, aimed to boost his image and status as a central player on the world stage despite widespread criticism of his regime’s human rights record.
What's next for Tunisia after the constitutional referendum?
On July 25 Tunisians approved a new constitution that will give the president, Kais Saied, expansive new powers, centralizing control of the country while removing many of the existing checks and balances. According to figures from the state electoral body, an estimated 94% of those who voted in the national referendum approved the measure, although turnout, which officials put at 30.5%, was relatively light. Following on from the vote, here’s what can be expected moving forward.
Germany’s Expanding Partnership with Morocco: Strengthening Supply Chain Resilience is the Driving Factor
The deepening partnership between Germany and Morocco has been driven by the private sector, providing an enduring foundation for cooperation. During the 2021 diplomatic crisis over Berlin’s position toward Rabat’s autonomy plan for the Sahara region, German-Moroccan business-to-business relationships remained largely unaffected. The fraying of global supply chains is bringing now Germany and Morocco into a closer economic partnership. The sudden supply shocks caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine have accelerated that process. In the years just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chains were already shortening as companies and countries in Europe placed greater emphasis on resilience rather than on just-in-time inventories serviced by distant Asian suppliers. This structural transformation meant bringing sourcing and manufacturing closer to European end-markets. The drive to “nearshore” while maintaining a competitive advantage has provided an impetus to German and other international firms to locate manufacturing facilities in Morocco, which has focused on cultivating an appropriate business ecosystem.
Sudan has a longstanding strategic partnership with Turkey, forged on the basis of shared ideology and fostered by growing economic and political ties, that has proven resilient to regime change. Khartoum has not abandoned its relationship with Ankara despite the ouster of former President Omar al-Bashir in 2019 or the opposition of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, Turkey’s former regional rivals and more recent cautious partners.
Egypt as an Eastern Mediterranean power in the age of energy transition
The emergence of Egypt as an Eastern Mediterranean energy hub resulted from a culmination of years of deliberate efforts. Increasingly, Egypt will be able to re-export Israeli natural gas or convert it into blue hydrogen, generate green electricity for export, or utilize its growing wind and solar power capacity to produce green hydrogen.
Industry analysts widely agree that OPEC+ production levels are currently well below the members’ authorized quotas and that any production increases will mainly be met by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The challenges facing the group are daunting, but if met, seven major OPEC countries could feasibly raise crude oil production while utilizing existing infrastructure, significantly narrowing the global demand-supply gap.
Intissar Fakir is joined by Marwa Haddar and Fadil Aliriza to discuss the economic issues Tunisia is facing, international financial institutions’ role in the crisis, and the government’s actions, or lack thereof, to help the country.
تُعد المجلة الرئيسية لمعهد الشرق الأوسط أقدم مطبوعة محكّمة مكرّسة لدراسة الشرق الأوسط الحديث، وتغطي المجلة الرئيسية في المعهد السياسة والمجتمع والثقافة في المنطقة.
